In ‘Naya’ Pakistan, whose interests come first?

There’s been a wave of excitement within Pakistan since the election of Imran Khan, and a flurry of activity on the part of the international community, with each country having stakes in Pakistan seeking to best position itself to take advantage of all that it has to offer. On each of their minds remains the question: how different, if at all, will this new prime minister, one who isn’t of the traditional ruling families or army, be?

The countries that have the greatest stakes made their claims early on, with the Iranians winning out by sending their foreign minister as the first foreign delegation, with the Japanese and Americans quickly following suit. The Saudis had already thrown their money into the deep bucket of Pakistani aid.

For Khan to truly stand out – and there are signs he wishes to do so at least cosmetically – he will need to tread a path where Pakistan can wrest itself free of its traditional benefactors, whose interests in the country have often not aligned with that of the Pakistani nation.

Can Khan ensure Pakistani national interests are served, while maintaining cordial relations with all? Does Pakistan stand a chance as it becomes a battleground for actors with competing interests? And does it have to be a zero-sum game?

Friends from afar

With foreign reserves dwindling, the new government in Pakistan was welcomed with a promise of an injection of cash from the Saudis. The Prime Minister’s first foreign visit is unsurprisingly to Saudi Arabia. It’s been a traditional partnership. Pakistan has looked to its friends in the Middle East to bail it out many-a-times.

There are arguments abound about Pakistan becoming too aid dependent, but look at it from another angle: aid doesn’t come for free. It comes with growing political influence, ensuring strategic interests of donor countries are preserved, often at the cost of the interests of the nation receiving that aid.

Saudi Arabia will continue to play its ‘aid card’ to counter Iranian endeavours at forging deeper economic and political ties with Pakistan, even at the cost of disbanding projects that would greatly benefit Pakistan in the long-run.

The US decision to cut military aid to the Pakistani military only goes to emphasise this point further. If Pakistan wants to continue receiving this aid then it must, according the United States, safeguard American interests: be it in Afghanistan, or be it in countering China’s growing clout of influence.

With aid came an era of giving carte blanche to American drone warfare in Pakistan, while remaining silent as India is given the status of “close defence ally” by the Americans. It is a master-slave relationship at best.

On the path to the Silk Road

The Chinese now loom larger than ever, with the China Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC) the talk of diplomatic circles. Everyone wants in, from the Iranians to even the Saudis. China brings with it truck-loads of investment dollars (Yuans?), its diplomatic and military might in a hostile neighbourhood, and a historical friendship.

CPEC also brings with it the realisation of a waning American clout of influence. Countries within the region are rearing their heads to forge regional, multilateral alliances which are threatening the US with political isolation.

At the same time, the concern remains that Pakistan needs to protect itself from the entrapment of China’s debt, as well as to protect its natural resources from unfair exploitation. No country must get a free ride in this “Naya” (new) Pakistan. Elements within the new Pakistani government have already acknowledged the unequal partnership that is being built here. But is Pakistan currently placed to negotiate from a position of strength?

Outmanoeuvring

China’s New Silk Road plan highlights the strategic geopolitical significance of Pakistan. Be it the Gwadar Port, its strategic partnership with China, or its gateway into Afghanistan, it is understandable why the country has become the arena for competing strategic interests for different actors.

The fact is that if Imran Khan postures correctly, the Saudis, Americans, Chinese and Iranians will realise that it is they who need Pakistan just as much as it needs them.

The fact is that if Imran Khan postures correctly, the Saudis, Americans, Chinese and Iranians will realise that it is they who need Pakistan just as much as it needs them. True, financial reserves are dwindling and energy supplies are an incredibly vital obstacle in the path of investment, but if Pakistan plays its cards right, it can, with a dose of patience, weather these storms and emerge stronger, more independent, and prosperous.

Will the need to put up a positive charade early on break this possibility for independent policy-making? That is a wait and see game. Pakistan has little in the way of examples to fall back on to compare its current prime minister with. All others were of established dynasties, known to be heavily reliant on and constantly begging for foreign “aid” to keep them going. Khan, at least in words, has demanded a more equal footing.

And why not? Pakistan should, by default really, look to its immediate neighbours for answers. Iran can offer energy through the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. Afghanistan seeks talks with the Taliban, and Pakistan’s role in any peace negotiations cannot be downplayed. If it plays this right, Pakistan can find itself with a secure border and less refugees flowing in. The desire to get China to invest in Pakistan with Pakistani interests front and centre has already been expressed by the new government.

All of this positive energy brought forth by this cricketer-turned-prime-minister must boil down to one essential question: can Pakistan outmanoeuvre these competing interests to champion its own national interests?

By Kaneez Fatima and Waqar H. Rizvi