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Just as India-China ties seemed to be on the mend, the construction plan of a US$137 billion hydro-power behemoth of what it calls the “world’s largest hydropower dam” on the Yarlung Tsangpo River near the Indian border threatens to stir new tensions. In November of last year, China’s state-owned media shared plans for a 60-gigawatt mega-dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR) capable of generating electricity three times the output of China’s Three Gorges Dam.
China’s 60-GW mega-dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River raises alarms in India and Bangladesh over potential disruptions to water flow and sedimentation.
However, China is not the only one ramping up hydro-power ambitions in the region. Seeing China’s actions as a possible threat to water security and regional stability, New Delhi has unveiled plans for a 10-gigawatt dam in Arunachal Pradesh, aiming to balance out Beijing’s influence over the river’s flow.
China’s Mega-Dam Ambitions: Power or Provocation?
China’s massive dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River represents a strategic move to boarder its renewable energy and economic efficiency, one of Beijing’s long-term objectives of carbon neutrality by 2060. With a whopping cost of $137 billion, this gigantic project is expected to generate 60 GW of power and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Given Tibet’s vast untapped hydro-power potential, the dam is central to China’s energy security strategy.
The Himalayan hydropolitics seem to have new geopolitical consequences, where China claims little effect downstream, still India and Bangladesh are worried about possible disruptions to the Brahmaputra River, which is vital for 130 million people in India and essential for Bangladesh’s agriculture. Sedimentation changes along with diminishing water flow and potential shortages have aroused worries in New Delhi and Dhaka. In response to these concerns, India has accelerated its own hydro-power development projects in Arunachal Pradesh, thereby heightening hydro-political tensions in the region.
India Dams Up: A Countermove Against China’s Power Play
The hydro-power development in India has faced local pushback, most notably in Arunachal Pradesh. Where the Indian government is accelerating the projects, which are already approved, in a race against China, which has taken to dam construction at a rapid pace. Among the more controversial of these projects is the 11,000-megawatt Upper Siang Multipurpose Storage Project, which Indigenous Adi communities have vehemently opposed over fears of massive dislocation and environmental degradation. There have been protests regarding the imminent threat of the flooding of more than 300 villages and the harm to the biodiversity-rich area.
India accelerates its hydro-power projects in Arunachal Pradesh as a strategic countermeasure to Beijing’s upstream water control.
Despite the worries surrounding these initiatives, New Delhi is holding its ground, seeing these projects as essential for balancing China’s influence upstream, said The Ministery of External Affairs in 2020. This strategy also aligns with India’s larger goals in the eastern Himalayas, strengthening its stance in Arunachal Pradesh, an area that Beijing refers to as “South Tibet.” As water security becomes a crucial battleground in the India-China rivalry, New Delhi’s push for hydro-power is a strategic move to keep regional power dynamics in check and reduce the threats posed by Chinese control over water resources.
The Environmental and Human Cost of the Dam Race
The construction of a huge number of hydropower projects in the Himalayas are a matter of great concern in some human rights and environmental contexts for both China and India. In India, the development of 4,300 large dams within the last six decades, has displaced more than 40 million people. This, along with social discussions, has engendered an over-arching debate about the ecological damage by the projects undertaken. On the other hand, Chinese dam projects have also been equally damaging, having displaced 23 million people and detrimentally impacting access to water for the population and environmental concerns.
Small and large earthquakes have always troubled the Himalayan region extending such challenges even more. A recent instance of a 6.8-magnitude quake in Tibet, tragically took 126 lives and damaged four water reservoirs. Besides this, the glacier collapses in the 2021 Uttarakhand caused floods destroying two hydroelectric dam projects and costing over 200 lives, which speaks of the possible catastrophic dam failures in this seismically active region.
Can Diplomacy Prevent a Water War?
The surge in competition over hydro-power projects along the Brahmaputra River between China and India has brought forth serious concerns over a possible water conflict. China is forging ahead with large dams on the Yarlung Tsangpo, while India has been constructing its projects in Arunachal Pradesh to contain Beijing’s influence. Such rivalry threatens to pervert water from the common good into a political instrument. And since there is no formal water-sharing agreement between the neighboring nations, tensions are growing, particularly amid both countries’ efforts to prioritize energy security over cooperation.
Caught in between, Bangladesh has growing fears of reduced water flow and sedimentation changes that can devastate the economy of agriculture and fisheries. While there have been prior attempts through the formation of joint working groups and high-level dialogues to resolve tensions, they have failed to produce binding agreements. The way forward is contingent upon establishing a transparent governance framework, possibly based on an international river treaty, like the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan. Without a diplomatic breakthrough, one might fear for a hydro-political deadlock whereby infrastructure, instead of diplomacy, would govern regional stability.
Without a formal water-sharing agreement, the India-China dam race risks escalating into a full-scale hydro-political crisis.
To conclude, the intensifying dam race between India and China is really a wider battle for strategic control over the Himalayas, where water security is becoming as vital as territorial security. While both claim that the expansion of hydro-power is inevitable for energy security and economic growth, the downside implications for environmental degradation, displacement, and geopolitical tensions can’t be brushed aside. Inadequate water-sharing accords are conducive to conflict and make coalitions important. The absence of structured cooperation and transparent mechanisms of trans-boundary water governance might lead the region even closer to a hydro-political crisis, in which control of infrastructure takes precedence over sustainable water management which might threaten the livelihoods of millions downstream.
The Author, Saif Ali is pursuing a Bachelor of Laws LL.B. at the University of Sindh Jamshoro. He has a profound interest in International Law and Policy and their impacts on regional dynamics and global security.
