Submarines and Silicon: AUKUS and the Future of Indo-Pacific Power Politics

Areeba Jamal

AUKUS; the tri-lateral strategic partnership between the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia started in 2021 with a mission to strengthen regional deterrence capabilities in the Indo-Pacific through cooperation. The partnership established security cooperation between the three obliging states and has two primary Pillars. Under Pillar I, the Australian Royal Navy will acquire conventionally armed nuclear-powered submarines and Pillar II will unite the nations for technological advancement through shared information.

AUKUS significantly expands Australia’s naval capabilities through advanced nuclear-powered submarines, reshaping Indo-Pacific maritime security.

The treaty prioritizes the Indo-Pacific region with the objective to counter Chinese military and technological advancements amidst Beijing’s aggressive maritime expansion. AUKUS functions as an innovative partnership which blends conventional military hardware with developing technological platforms. 

Pillar I

The rudimentary foundation of AUKUS consists of two fundamental operational elements that serve different protection dimensions. The first pillar of AUKUS focuses on providing Australia with nuclear-powered submarines (SSN-A). The conventionally armed submarines will get their power from nuclear technology which provides them with exceptional endurance (These SSN’s can stay underwater without refuelling for 90 days) capabilities alongside stealth characteristics and extended operational ranges.

The United States intends to sell Australia 3-5 U.S. Virginia class SSNs in the 2030s and as early as 2027 United States and UK will deploy their own nuclear powered submarines in the region as a part of “Submarine Rotational Force-West.” The agreement marked Australia’s inclusion in strategic partnerships with the US and the UK, which until then existed only between the latter two under the Mutual Defence Agreement of 1958. The consequential naval posture of Australia enables the country to extend its power across extensive maritime territories covering the South China Sea, the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean.

The transfer of such sensitive technology from the United States and the United Kingdom to a non-nuclear power, demonstrates an unprecedented level of trust and strategic alignment. 

Pillar I has been criticized by the international community as a gateway to allow the transfer nuclear energy under the guise of peaceful use, which states can later use for military purposes. Additionally, the provision of nuclear powered submarines to Australia might exacerbate the arms race in the Indo-Pacific, prompting neighbouring states to develop indigenous military arsenal to counter Australia’s growing military presence in the area. 

Pillar II

AUKUS’s Pillar 2 provides a common platform where Australia, United Kingdom and, the United States would jointly collaborate on advanced sciences and technologies. The three nations will collaborate on developing undersea capabilities, quantum technologies, artificial intelligence, autonomy systems, advanced cyber technologies, electronic warfare systems, and hypersonic and counter-hypersonic capabilities. Under Pillar 2 the AUKUS countries unite their individual technology capacities to expand defence industry markets for U.S. and allied manufacturers while eliminating unnecessary development costs. While the United States has the world’s biggest technology sector its allied partners in Britain and Australia maintain active technology markets that operate alongside and benefit from U.S. technological power.

Pillar II promotes advanced technological collaboration, integrating quantum tech, AI, and hypersonics to counterbalance China’s military expansion.

A trial for Pillar II involved military and civilian personnel from all three countries working on aerial and ground vehicles during which AI models exchanged between nations and AI assets that operated in a swarm to detect and track targets, for the first time. The second pillar emphasizes the need for an effective defence industrial base to deter external interferences. Standardization initiatives under Pillar II unify supply chain operations with production processes and technical standards thus achieving autonomy from foreign powers within defence industries.

It also marks a shift from the expressly tri-lateral nature of the treaty, including Japan and South Korea among the states interested in being part of Pillar II to counter China’s offensive onslaught and North Korea’s military aggression respectively. New Zealand, as member of the Five Eyes and part of ANZUS, has also expressed interest in joining Pillar II to aid USA and its allies. 

Impact on the Indo-Pacific

AUKUS creates an extensive set of far-reaching impacts on U.S. dominion within the Indo-Pacific region. The alliance boosts the United States operational presence by deploying personnel further in the Indo-Pacific. American forces including submarines, surveillance systems and, rapid response units become better equipped to respond to potential hotspots because Australia serves as their southern strategic base. AUKUS acts as a platform for the United States to unite its defence innovation leadership by including allies within its advanced military technology system. The alliance strengthens as allies become more dependent on American strategic technology, while the United States gains dominance over adversaries like China because of this development. 

AUKUS represents a strategic shift toward flexible, innovation-driven alliances, altering traditional power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific.

In addition, AUKUS is another clear attempt to redesign Indo-Pacific’s security architecture to usher the Indo-Pacific in the U.S. led norms and partnerships direction. This changes China’s strategic calculus, and adds to the face of a more coherent and technologically sophisticated opposition in the maritime domain. AUKUS is not explicitly trying to contain China, but its structure and ambitions are clearly aimed at balancing China’s influence. Eventually, AUKUS is yet another model of future alliance building on less institutional but more flexible and more innovation-driven than NATO architecture in a 21st century geopolitical competition.

Conclusion

AUKUS is a historic realignment in international security strategy. It integrates the unchanging tenets of military deterrence with the anticipation of modernity requirements for technological superiority. AUKUS is not only a defensive pact for the United States, but rather a way to maintain American influence, project power and chart a future of warfare through future innovation. Pivoting to the Indo-Pacific, the global power dynamics will continue to revolve around the AUKUS alliance which may play a key determining role in the regional order, and a counterweight tool towards China’s geopolitical ambitions.

The Author is pursuing her bachelor’s degree in Nuclear and Defence Strategic Studies at the National Defence University. She is a dedicated and analytical professional with expertise in international law, media, and public policy. Her work in the governmental, legal, and media sectors has given her insights into legislative processes, litigation, research analysis, and news production.