The LoC and Beyond: Analyzing the Military Dynamics of the India-Pakistan Border

Analysis: Hina Majid

The Line of Control (LoC) between India and Pakistan is one of the most militarized borders in the world. The region has been a point of contention since the partition of British India in 1947, with both countries claiming sovereignty over the territory. Both India and Pakistan have maintained a significant military presence along the LoC, with troops deployed in forward positions. The Indian Army has a strong presence in the region, with several divisions and brigades stationed along the LoC, while Pakistan’s military also has a significant presence, with troops deployed in Azad Kashmir and other areas along the border. Despite the ceasefire agreement in place since 2003, there have been frequent violations along the LoC. Both countries accuse each other of initiating firing and shelling, which have resulted in civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure. The ceasefire violations have increased in recent years, with both countries engaging in heavy artillery fire and small arms fire.

Recent Developments: The Pahalgam Attack

The April 22 attack in Pahalgam killed 26 people, mostly tourists, in one of the deadliest assaults since 2000. The attack further escalated tensions between India and Pakistan. India, without an investigation or evidence, has accused Pakistan of supporting the militants responsible for the attack, while Pakistan has denied any involvement and called for a neutral probe. India took several significant actions, including suspending the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan. The Indian government announced this suspension on April 23, 2025, stating that the treaty would remain in abeyance until Pakistan “credibly and irrevocably” ceases its support for cross-border terrorism. In the aftermath of the Pahalgam attack, India took a series of decisive measures. These actions included expelling Pakistani military advisers from the Indian High Commission in New Delhi and withdrawing Indian military advisers from Islamabad. Furthermore, India canceled all previously issued visas under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme for Pakistani nationals, imposed a travel ban, and closed the Wagah-Attari border, which significantly affected trade and travel between the two nations. In addition, India began the construction of new hydroelectric projects and dams on the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—measures that had been previously constrained under the IWT. Pakistan condemned India’s suspension of the IWT, labeling it a violation of international law and a breach of the 1960 agreement. The National Security Committee of Pakistan issued firm warnings, stating that any attempt by India to disrupt the flow of water from shared rivers would be considered an “Act of War” and would be responded to with full force. Pakistan also suspended the Simla Agreement, closed its airspace to Indian flights, expelled Indian diplomats, and instructed Indian military advisers to leave the country. The international community has expressed growing concern over the escalating tensions between India and Pakistan. The World Bank, a signatory to the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), has been urged to step in as a mediator and facilitate dialogue between the two nations to prevent further deterioration of relations. The suspension of the IWT marks a pivotal shift in the longstanding water-sharing agreement, underscoring the complex intersection of security concerns and environmental cooperation in the region. 

The May 7, 2025, Indian attack on Pakistan marked a significant escalation in the longstanding tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. India’s military strike, a response to what it saw as continuing cross-border terrorism, was met with swift retaliation from Pakistan, which launched airstrikes and missiles at Indian targets. The situation rapidly escalated, raising fears of a broader conflict, with both sides engaged in a dangerous cycle of military action. The international community expressed deep concern, urging both nations to de-escalate and return to dialogue. The path forward remains uncertain, with potential outcomes ranging from further military confrontation to international mediation, possibly led by organizations like the UN or the World Bank, which has a vested interest in maintaining peace due to its role in the Indus Waters Treaty. For lasting peace, both India and Pakistan will need to resume high-level talks, strengthen confidence-building measures, and address the core issues of terrorism and Kashmir. Economic cooperation and engagement between civil societies could also offer new pathways for better relations, though any resolution will require both nations to make significant compromises and foster trust that has been eroded over decades of conflict. The potential consequences of further escalation between India and Pakistan are severe and far-reaching. Continued military action could lead to an alarming rise in civilian casualties and widespread damage to infrastructure, severely affecting both nations’ populations. The region, already fragile, would face further destabilization, with ripple effects spreading across South Asia. The looming risk of nuclear conflict remains one of the most dangerous aspects of this situation, as both countries possess significant nuclear arsenals, and any miscalculation could trigger catastrophic consequences. Moreover, the economic impact of prolonged conflict would be devastating, with trade disruptions, increased military spending, and long-term instability hampering growth and development in both nations. To avoid such a scenario, it is crucial for India and Pakistan to engage in meaningful dialogue and confidence-building measures, addressing the root causes of the conflict, such as the Kashmir dispute and cross-border terrorism. Both nations must move away from military posturing and rhetoric, opting instead for diplomacy and negotiations. The international community has a vital role to play in facilitating peace, providing mediation, and ensuring that both countries refrain from actions that could lead to further escalation. Global institutions, along with key international players, must actively promote stability, urging both India and Pakistan to pursue cooperative solutions that prioritize peace and the well-being of their people.

The author, Hina Majid completed her masters in International Relations from the University of Sargodha in 2021.  She stands as an independent researcher & her key areas of interest include foreign policy, international law, international and regional organisations, & human rights.