The Price of Appeasement: How Syria’s New Rulers Misread Israel

Ali Hamza

As Syria’s new administration strives to present a semblance of normalcy and peace in the country, the simmering agents for destabilization of a war-torn state continue to haunt the new leaders. As HTS leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa, previously known as Abu Muhammad Al-Jolani, assured the world and Syria’s minorities that the new Syria under his command will be pluralistic and inclusive, with protection for minority groups, the outbreak of violence in Latakia and other Alawite majority areas in Southern Syria speaks volumes about the magnanimity of the challenge the new Syrian administration faces. Although the new administration has achieved quite a breakthrough by reaching an agreement with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, the challenges in the Southern part have been multiplying.

Israeli military incursions and airstrikes have surged since the fall of the Assad regime, expanding Israeli control near Damascus.

Syria faces a plethora of challenges due to its troubled history of civil war since 2011. This has been aggravated by the interference of various international actors as well as non-state actors. The vested interests of regional and global powers have made Syria a battleground of conflicting agendas. The most significant interference since the fall of Assad regime has been by Israel. Despite the animosity Assad housed for Israel and projected it by supporting the anti-Israel axis, Israeli forces remained in the illegally annexed Golan Heights and avoided intrusion in the buffer zone between the Occupied Golan Heights and rest of the Syrian territory. However, as soon as Assad regime fell in December 2024, and a dispensation, considered less hostile towards Israel, was sworn in, Israeli forces marched across the Syrian territory, expanding their control to the area just outside the Syrian capital. Moreover, Israeli actions have caused serious grievances among Syria’s citizens, who already house hostility towards Israel due to the history of enmity between both states as well as Israel genocide in Gaza.

The silence of Syria’s new leaders with regard to Israeli aggression was surprising as well as indicative of a passive approach when it came to confronting Israel. Soon after the ascension of Ahmed Al-Sharaa to the leadership, he had circumvented any reference to the Israeli actions inside Syria as well as in the Middle East. In fact, he had also categorically stated that he did not want any confrontation with Israel. This was, in part, continuation of previous Al-Qaeda jihadist’s attempts to assuage the West’s concerns about his jihadi affiliation. However, this appeasement proved to be counter-productive as Israel upped the ante in face of this show of weakness by Syria’s new administration. At the end of March 2025, the Israeli military had launched at least 70 ground incursions into southwestern Syria and conducted at least 31 sets of airstrikes across Syria with a high toll on Syrian population. This is a clear indication of how Israel has been playing a destabilizing role in Syria and adding to the challenges for the Sharaa-led administration.

The new Syrian administration’s initial policy of appeasement toward Israel has emboldened further Israeli aggression and destabilization.

As Israel expands its tentacles in all four directions, analysts have observed that these measures by Israeli state are a veritable proof of the “Greater Israel” dream of the Zionist regime. Along with the merciless carnage carried out in Gaza, Israel has relentlessly targeted Lebanese as well as Syrian civilians with complete lack of discrimination between combatants and non-combatants. As this Israeli aggression demands a strong response in military as well as diplomatic terms, the policy of appeasement initially adopted by Syria’s new administration has further emboldened Israel. It has been a major policy failure on part of Syria’s new rulers as they have miscalculated the Israeli intentions for the region. There has been some criticism of Israeli actions by Syria’s new leader lately, but the damage in terms of perception towards Syria has been already done.

The logic behind Israel’s aggression inside Syria is as mind-boggling as its definition of self-defense. Since December 2024, not one attack has targeted Israel from Syria and the country’s security forces have intercepted at least 18 weapons shipments destined for Hezbollah in Lebanon, and dismantled at least eight formerly Iranian-linked rocket launch sites. This is a clear indication of new Syrian government ensuring that its territory is not used against Israel. However, it is not the threats to Israel’s security that trigger a response from Israel, but the relative weakness of other states that prompts Israel’s war machine’s aggressive responses. Israel’s actions in Syria are purely an expansionist overture and intended to destabilize an already war-ravaged country.

Despite Syria’s efforts to prevent attacks on Israel from its territory, Israeli actions appear driven by expansionist aims rather than self-defense.

As the new Syrian administration is already confronted with insurmountable challenges of uniting the country and rebuilding it after more than a decade of civil war, it is in its best interest to manage its relation with Israel and avoid needless confrontation. Syria’s leadership may seek to avoid confrontation with Israel, but passivity has not shielded the country from escalating aggression. The Israeli military presence now looms disturbingly close to the capital, and the quiet acceptance of these intrusions has only emboldened further incursions. For the new administration in Damascus, the time for recalibration is now. Without a firm strategy to assert sovereignty and check Israeli overreach, Syria risks not just humiliation, but further fragmentation—this time, with foreign flags planted in its heartland.

The Author works as an Assistant Research Associate at Islamabad Policy Research Institute, where he specializes in Middle Eastern Affairs. He has done his MPhil in International Relations from Quaid-I-Azam University, Islamabad.