Weapons Are Fueling Regional Chaos!

Fawad Khan Afridi

The American withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 created a security challenge by abandoning military equipment worth around $7 billion. Advanced weaponry and vehicles and aircraft, along with surveillance equipment from the arsenal, have shifted power dynamics in South Asia while helping Taliban fighters and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to strengthen their operations.

Over $7 billion in U.S. military equipment left behind in Afghanistan is now empowering insurgent groups across South and Central Asia.

Departments of the U.S. Defence indicated their equipment was disabled before the withdrawal, although regional security forces alongside intelligence agencies dispute these claims. The weapons have created a significant effect in Pakistan because insurgents are carrying out a renewed insurgency that produces unprecedented violence throughout the nation.

Security conditions in Pakistan will remain high in 2025 because the TTP is increasing its assaults on military forces, combined with strikes against civilian targets. Security data indicates that violence-related fatalities exceeded 2,500 individuals in 2024, and this year-end count is anticipated to maintain the same pattern. The rise of militant attacks in Pakistan has happened primarily because U.S. military equipment abandoned in Afghanistan became available to insurgents.

Pakistan’s military leadership has declared publicly that M4 rifles, along with night-vision goggles and additional advanced equipment, provided major strength to the TTP operations, making them more deadly, while attacks became better organized. Female intelligence agencies working for Pakistan have on several occasions detected major weapon shipments as they moved across the Afghan-Pakistan frontier. Security forces operating at the Torkham border crossing have intercepted multiple U.S.-generated weapons, including rifles and ammunition, and explosives of military standard, yet these seizures account for only a tiny portion of militant groups that obtained the acquired weapons.

These security concerns have resulted in serious deterioration of the ties between Pakistan and the Taliban-led government of Afghanistan. The Pakistani government continues to push Kabul toward active opposition against terrorist safe areas and blocking U.S. weapon shipments that enter Pakistan. Pakistan feels increasingly impatient with the Taliban leadership due to their refusal to act against their ideological allies.

Pakistan recorded over 2,500 fatalities from militant violence in 2024, with the trend expected to continue in 2025.

The Pakistani Foreign Office made a public appeal to international nations to step in and prevent these weapons from maintaining their role in border terrorism activities. The Foreign Office, through spokesman Shafqat Ali Khan, declared that U.S. arms in Afghanistan created an unstable security situation for Pakistan’s national defense. The Afghan Taliban refute any support for TTP operations in Pakistan even though intelligence evidence proves otherwise.

Security threats arise from weapon proliferation beyond the borders of Pakistan. Several Central Asian states observed boosted militant operations because extremist organizations within the region potentially receive and disseminate U.S. military equipment. Intelligence agencies note that certain U.S. weapons already appear in the Middle East and African conflict areas where terrorist groups actively search for sophisticated weaponry. The United Nations showed increasing concern about this proliferation because these weapons possess the potential to ignite insurgencies across territories beyond South Asia.

The deteriorating security conditions in Pakistan cause severe economic problems throughout the nation. The nation experiences economic turbulence while investor faith continues to fade because of the rising militant activities. Infrastructure projects under China’s Belt and Road Initiative, alongside other building initiatives, face direct threats from insurgent actions. Security issues in Pakistan have made Chinese firms doubt their presence in the country so much that they have started to reassess their investments.

The tensions grow stronger because extremist groups conduct attacks against Chinese workers and Chinese facilities that generate fear about deliberate attempts to reduce Pakistan’s economic power. Continued terrorist activities will harm both Pakistan’s economic growth along its ability to build stable trading relations in the region.

The situation of left-behind U.S. military equipment has triggered fresh political arguments across the United States. U.S claims the Afghan withdrawal lacked proper planning, which resulted in demands for responsibility regarding military equipment management. Donald Trump wants investigators to study how the Taliban acquired massive U.S. military hardware and seek possible strategies for lessening the harm. Some Republican legislators advocate both investigations of this matter and strategic military operations to eliminate or recover abandoned weaponry.

Any military operation to recapture U.S. equipment in Afghanistan becomes a challenge because the Taliban maintains full control over the country. Several pieces of U.S. weaponry and military vehicles are expected to survive as operational units for multiple years because they lack enough maintenance and replacement parts, though some equipment will become unusable over time. Current military analysts and policymakers agree that these weapons represent an ongoing threat to U.S. forces during future military operations.

Chinese investment in Pakistan is under threat as extremist violence increasingly targets Belt and Road infrastructure and personnel.

The enduring security vacuum caused by American withdrawal continues to affect the world as the situation remains problematic for the foreseeable future. Non-state actors have accelerated their military buildup across Afghanistan and neighbouring areas because of unprofessional military withdrawal methods. Pakistan specifically looks at a difficult conflict with armed insurgents who possess modern weapons systems to defend themselves. All available data indicate the crisis within the region is getting worse, not better. Rushing action is needed from the international community to handle U.S. weapons proliferation across the region because this failure may lead to disastrous regional instability that spreads into wider Asian areas.

The author is an MPhil student at the National Defense University, Islamabad. His research interests encompass strategic contestation in the Asia-Pacific and regional security risks in South Asia. He focuses on geopolitical rivalries, economic nationalism, and emerging technologies within these two regions.