Khawaja Touqeer Ahmad
South Asia, one of the world’s most consequential geostrategic and geoeconomic regions, continues to face persistent risks of nuclear confrontation and strategic volatility. Despite repeated efforts at normalization and reconciliation, the region remains deeply vulnerable, particularly for South Asian identity holders whose security and prosperity are hostage to enduring rivalry.
A stable and peaceful South Asia would not only prevent regional nuclear escalation but would also represent a significant contribution to sustainable global peace. Without meaningful regional integration and interdependent frameworks, however, global peace itself remains precarious.
Peace between the region’s principal actors, Pakistan and India, is indispensable for regional development and prosperity. Since their inception in 1947, both states have maintained largely hostile relations, fighting four major wars and engaging in multiple crises and skirmishes.
Today, rivalry has expanded beyond conventional confrontation to include hybrid warfare, information operations, and coercive signaling. False-flag accusations and narratives surrounding so-called “surgical” and “precision” strikes have emerged as destabilizing phenomena, eroding crisis stability and undermining deterrence. From 1947 to May 2025, shared histories and identities have failed to translate into reconciliation or sustainable common ground.
Unlike Europe, where centuries of conflict culminated in economic interdependence and institutional integration under the European Union, South Asia’s prospects for collective integration remain bleak. The failure of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), inactive since 2014, reflects this stagnation.
In its absence, both Pakistan and India have pursued regionalism outward, eastward and westward, without mutual collaboration. Since then, a renewed cycle of hostilities has unfolded, marked by crises such as Uri (2016), Pulwama (2019), and renewed escalations in 2025.
Contemporary geopolitics further amplifies South Asia’s relevance due to its immense geoeconomic and geostrategic value. Geoeconomically, the region is endowed with fertile climatic conditions suitable for diverse agricultural production, extensive mineral and gas reserves, and globally significant tourism potential.
Strategically located at the gateway to the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, through which the largest share of global energy trade passes, South Asia also lies adjacent to vital Indo-Pacific maritime routes. Combined seaborne trade through the Straits of Hormuz and Malacca accounts for approximately 34-36 percent of global trade volume.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has further reshaped the regional economic landscape by integrating South Asian states into broader Eurasian connectivity networks. Alongside expanding frameworks such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Gulf Cooperation Council’s outreach, these initiatives have mitigated Eurasian fragmentation and stimulated economic development.
Geostrategically, South Asia has become a focal arena for great-power competition, particularly between the United States and China. India has increasingly aligned with the US as a counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific, formalized through agreements such as LEMOA, BECA, and iCET. Expanded defence, intelligence, and logistical cooperation, along with access to strategic locations such as the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, has positioned India as a principal Western partner in the Indian Ocean Region, aimed at countering China’s perceived “String of Pearls” strategy.
Conversely, Pakistan maintains a robust strategic partnership with China, serving as a flagship partner in the BRI through projects such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). At the same time, Islamabad has sought to maintain a balanced posture across its western and eastern relationships. China’s growing access to ports across Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan reflects its expanding geostrategic reach. As both major powers reinforce alliances and pursue power politics across Eurasia, instability in South Asia increasingly risks entangling global interests and escalating into broader conflict.
Given South Asia’s pivotal role and the persistent security dilemma between two nuclear-armed rivals, securing peace and cohesion is imperative. Leadership in both India and Pakistan must adopt a forward-looking approach that prioritizes socioeconomic well-being and regional prosperity. Confidence-building measures, transparency in bilateral relations, and the development of interdependent economic frameworks are essential first steps.
Demonstrating strategic restraint through adherence to arms control norms and export control regimes, including engagement with international oversight mechanisms, could moderate the pace of regional militarization. Strengthening IAEA safeguards and transparency measures would further enhance confidence and stability. Beyond state-centric power politics, a constructivist approach that empowers civil society, promotes human rights, and invests in human capital can reshape normative state behavior and contribute meaningfully to peace.
Opening trade borders, expanding cultural exchange programs, and institutionalizing Track-II diplomacy should form the foundation of a broader integration agenda. Economic interdependence aligns interests, creating incentives for negotiation and compromise rather than coercion. This logic underpinned the European integration project, where economic reconciliation gradually evolved into deeper institutional integration, progressing from free trade to monetary and political cooperation.
As illustrated by Balassa’s model of regional integration, technical and functional cooperation can incrementally raise the stakes for private actors and economic elites, who in turn pressure governments to avoid conflict. Interdependence transforms war into a zero-sum loss, making peaceful resolution the rational choice.
South Asia must follow a similar trajectory. Revitalizing SAARC, advancing toward a regional Free Trade Area, and fostering people-to-people contacts through tourism, education, and cultural exchange are critical. Such engagement would counter narratives of alienation, cultivate mutual respect, and gradually foster a collective South Asian identity that transcends narrow nationalisms. Over time, this shared identity can reduce confrontation risks and lay the foundation for enduring regional stability and peace.
The authro is a BS International Relations scholar at Quaid i Azam University, having keen interest in geopolitics, strategic calculus and regional integration frameworks.
