Taha Jabbar
South Asia remains a structurally unstable region, shaped by unresolved conflicts, territorial disputes, nuclearization and strategic anxieties. While the region doesn’t remain in a state of permanent chaos, it has repeatedly edged dangerously close to the nuclear confrontation, which reveals a security environment that is unstable and fragile. This environment stems from multiple factors, including territorial disputes between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, Sino-Indian confrontation over Chinese border claims in Aksai Chin, Arunachal Pradesh and Central Himalayas.
Geopolitical rivalry between China and India for regional dominance; insurgency movements like TTP, BLA in Pakistan and Kashmir insurgency in India remain a problem. This makes the region’s security a challenge, as even localized incidents escalate into broader conflicts, mainly the India’s security strategy of limited conventional escalation after the 2016, increases the risk of nuclear confrontation as it remains the only deterrence option for conventionally weaker Pakistan.
The current security landscape of South Asia is shaped by its colonial legacy, particularly Kashmir and the Sino-Indian boundary question, but also by asymmetric military capabilities of India and Pakistan. The overlooker may conclude that only these two factors define the security of South Asia, but in reality, it is the interstate conflicts and rivalries, non-traditional security threats including insurgencies, terrorism and geo-political competition. Understanding these layers of security challenges is essential for mapping the actual security situation in South Asia, and how these factors produce stability and instability simultaneously.
The heart of South Asian security challenge remains the traditional threats, rooted in interstate conflicts. India and Pakistan have fought three major wars over Kashmir (1947-48, 1965, 1999); India and China also have a history of territorial disputes including the Sino-Indian war of 1962 over disputed territories of Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh to the most recent Galwan valley clash (2020) and Pangong Tso and other standoffs (2020–2021).
The tension along the Line of Actual control adds to the fragile security situation in South Asia as region is thrown into an arms race and rapid military modernization on all ends. Pakistan has been investing heavily in its missile program, expanding its capabilities in short and medium range. It has also been modernizing its army and increasing its naval capabilities in response to Indian expansion in the Indian ocean, with aircraft carriers and nuclear-powered submarines.
India has been modernizing its air force with the inclusion of fifth-generation Rafale fighter jets from France after Chinese development of its J-20 and J-35 stealth and multi-role fighters. This modernization mainly comes from the security dilemma between these states. While these traditional security rivalries define much of the region’s security it is only one layer of the multi-faceted security situation of the region.
Beyond conventional conflicts between states, South Asia is further destabilized through non-traditional security challenges i.e. Insurgencies, terrorism, external influences and strategic anxieties. In Pakistan groups like Baloch Liberation army (BLA) and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) pose a challenge to the state authority in various regions, while in India the Kashmir insurgency, the Naxalite-Maoist movement, and various other northeastern militant groups continue to destabilize the region.
India’s allegations of cross border militancy via terrorist organizations amplifies the region’s volatile nature. India’s allegations regarding Pakistan’s support of cross-border militancy in India remain contested, mainly due to Pakistan’s extensive counter terrorism operations and the absence of international investigations despite Pakistan’s invitation in several major events.
Pakistan alleges that RAW supports insurgencies in Pakistan, in Balochistan and border areas, meanwhile the TTP violence and terrorism after the Taliban takeover highlights another security challenge for Pakistan, despite its long-standing efforts to stabilize its western border. China’s belt and Road initiative with Pakistan, mainly aimed at connectivity, development and economic stability has resulted in increased strategic anxiety for India. These internal and non-traditional security threats further complicate the security situation in the region.
South Asian security challenges are complex and deeply interconnected, where traditional rivalries between India-Pakistan and India-China are amplified by insurgencies, terrorism and external strategic intervention, where cross-border attacks escalate into broad conflicts.
Modernization aimed at improving deterrence is often seen with mistrust by the other state, creating a persistent security dilemma. Pakistan and India often align with China and US respectively, to maintain security which adds another layer of complexity.
Addressing these challenges and maintain the stability in South Asia requires addressing the root causes of tensions, particularly Kashmir and Chinese border claims, along with bridging communication gaps via diplomatic dialogues and military preparedness.
The author is a International Relations scholar at the National Defence University, Islamabad, with focus on security, geopolitics, and conflict studies. Passionate about analysing regional dynamics and strategic affairs, he writes op-eds and explore traditional and non-traditional security challenges. His work bridges academic insight with policy relevance, aiming to inform readers about the complex interplay of threats shaping region dynamics.
