A New Cold Front

Sumaira Batool

The rare first-time appearance of North Korean President Kim with Chinese President Xi Jinping, along with Russian Premier Vladimir Putin, gave a ripple effect on the regional politics in the Asia Pacific. This rare sight of three revisionist leaders showcased that North Korea is strategically aligning with China and Russia- a deviation from its long-standing posture of isolation. Its strategic alignment and increasing military and diplomatic gestures are a threat to US allies within the Asia Pacific.

The rare trilateral appearance of Kim, Xi, and Putin signals a shifting Asia-Pacific power balance.

North Korea adopted isolationist policies in 1980 and continued its tight grip even after the global pandemic hit the country. However, the Russia-Ukraine War gave an opportunity for Russia and North Korea to strengthen their relations politically, militarily, and diplomatically. Russia was grappling with sanctions due to its war with Ukraine. However, it strategically balanced its relations with India, China, and North Korea to cushion the dire multitude of challenges. In June 2024, the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership was signed between Russia and North Korea. Additionally, North Korea supported Russia by sending military troops to the war against Ukraine. The ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the US backing of the latter have helped the revisionist states to share a stage against the established Western world order.

China had cautiously maintained its relations with North Korea regarding its nuclearization policies, and it had supported North Korea enough to “survive, but not thrive,” considering denuclearization of DPRK a peaceful resolute for the peaceful Korean Peninsula. However, the increasing militarization of North Korea is becoming a new normal for China. The unwavering support of the US to Israel’s security policy in West Asia and its militarization of Israel has made China less critical of North Korea’s ongoing military upgradation.

Additionally, the US-China rivalry in the Pacific has led China to seek alignment with states like North Korea for diplomatic signalling. The presence of the North Korean President, along with Putin and Xi, has drawn the attention of international actors. The appearance of the three leaders on a rare occasion signals an ongoing shift in the balance of power in the region.

After the partition of Korea, North Korea isolated itself, built up its army, withdrew from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and developed limited diplomatic relations with a handful of states. This response is to defend itself from possible South Korean aggression. In recent years, it has been observed that North Korea’s economy has stabilized compared with before, and the development of relations with its ideological partners has assisted DPRK to showcase itself an important actor in the politics of the Asia Pacific.

North Korea’s growing military ties with Russia and China threaten U.S. allies in the region.

Recently, at the UN General Assembly’s annual meeting, North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Son Gyong declared that it will never abandon nuclear weapons as it is necessary to deter South Korean aggression. Additionally, North Korea expressed its opposition to the military drill of the US, Japan, and South Korea. It must be noted that the relationship between the US and its major ally, South Korea, has been facing strains due to the inconsistent policies of Trump towards its allies. The relations between South Korea and US is based on economic relations and the security guarantee by the US against any possible aggression by China and North Korea.

However, South Korea now questions the reliability of the US as its ally because of the huge tariffs and its changing policies regarding security. This led to a significant narrative of adopting nuclear weapons as 70 percent of South Korean citizens favour an indigenous nuclear deterrent. If the relations between South Korea and US remain strained, then South Korea, in the face of the aggressor North Korea, may adopt nuclear weapons and it can exacerbate nuclear threat in Asia Pacific.

As Trump holds the power for the second time in the US, Trump takes the credit for the resolution of disputes between India and Pakistan, Armenia and Azerbaijan, Iran and Israel.  On the flip side, Trump showed an aggressive posture towards Greenland and is now urging Japan, one of its main allies in the Pacific, to increase its defense budget to resist any possible aggression by China. The demand for an increasing defense budget, along with North Korea’s military upheaval, will significantly escalate the regional power competition and have the potential for small-scale conflicts.

Similarly, the trade war initiated by Donald Trump has started a debate on the self-sufficiency of Japan ahead of the inconsistent policies of Trump. These policies of the US are undermining the trust between both states, resulting a confusion in bilateral engagement. The Do-More policies of Donald Trump, the tariff war against its allies, is deteriorating relations between both countries, and it has the potential to excite North Korea for nuclear aggression in the Asia Pacific along with its ideological partners.

U.S. policy inconsistencies risk weakening alliances and fueling nuclear ambitions in South Korea and beyond.

As the power relations across the globe are changing, an imbalance in power can be observed in the Asia Pacific as major powers like China and Russia are less critical of the nuclear policies of North Korea while extending military, diplomatic support to one another. This shift in policy has security implications for US allies in the Pacific who have been under the military shelter of the US, but now face a reliability crisis.

The author is a graduate student of International Relations with a focus on security studies and Asia-Pacific geopolitics. Her research interests include traditional and non-traditional security challenges, great power politics, and the evolving strategic dynamics between South and East Asia. She writes on regional security, foreign policy, and global affairs.