Afghanistan’s Security Vacuum

Itrat Batool

The world was discussing the ramifications of the Taliban’s quick takeover when the United States withdrew from Afghanistan in August 2021. After almost four years, the question is not whether the Taliban can control Afghanistan because they have established their dominance, but rather how their authority affects regional security. Afghanistan’s instability has grown to be a major regional issue due to factors like cross-border militancy, drug smuggling, and refugee flows. Afghanistan runs the risk of continuing to be a center of insecurity with repercussions that extend well beyond its boundaries unless its neighbors take a coordinated approach.

“Afghanistan runs the risk of continuing to be a center of insecurity with repercussions that extend well beyond its boundaries unless its neighbors take a coordinated approach.”

The security situation in Afghanistan is significant because instability transcends national boundaries. Ordinary Afghans continue to escape, criminal enterprises thrive, and militants find safe havens in uncontrolled areas, burdening neighbors politically and humanitarianly. China, Russia, Central Asian nations, Pakistan, and Iran have all been impacted in one way or another. However, regional states have not developed a durable security framework in spite of acknowledging the issue. Rather than fostering collaboration, disjointed policies have fostered more mistrust.

Consider Pakistan as an example. Previously a staunch ally of the Taliban, Islamabad is currently facing a comeback by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a group emboldened by the Taliban’s win across the street. Pakistan has been forced to start military operations and even carry out strikes within Afghan territory due to an increase in cross-border attacks. Iran, on the other hand, is dealing with drug trafficking and border tensions in addition to managing waves of Afghan refugees fleeing Taliban persecution and economic difficulties. The unstable stability of Central Asian nations is threatened by the possibility of infiltration by extremist organizations. China is concerned about the possibility of radicalism spreading into Xinjiang, despite its caution. While each of these issues is legitimate, addressing them separately just feeds the cycle.

In the meantime, the Taliban are still unwilling, or maybe unable, to adequately address these dangers. They have not done much to break their ties with extremist organizations, especially al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups from Central Asia, despite their claims to the contrary. Neighbors are now bearing the burden as the pressure from the international community has diminished. However, isolating Afghanistan is also not a solution; assistance cuts and sanctions have made humanitarian situations worse without altering the Taliban’s conduct.

A regional security strategy that transcends blame games is required. The prevention of terrorism, the reduction of drug smuggling, the stabilization of refugee flows, and the avoidance of civil war are more shared interests among Afghanistan’s neighbors than they realize. No one state can address these problems on its own. For example, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) may serve as a forum for promoting this kind of collaboration, but thus far, it has produced more rhetoric than action. Ad hoc trilateral or quadrilateral discussions have also not produced legally enforceable agreements.

“Pakistan has been forced to start military operations and even carry out operation due to an increase in cross-border attacks.”

Three steps are necessary for a feasible future. States in the region must first decide to put security cooperation ahead of political disagreements. Engaging the Taliban as a de facto authority to achieve shared goals does not imply acknowledging them as a genuine administration. Second, it is necessary to depoliticize humanitarian aid. Afghans who are starved or forced to migrate in large numbers only serve to increase instability. This could be lessened with the help of regional aid systems, possibly run by impartial UN organizations. Third, it is necessary to institutionalize collaborative border mechanisms and intelligence sharing. Preventive coordination might drastically lower the hazards rather than waiting for extremists to strike before responding.

Critics may claim that history warrants suspicion and that the Taliban cannot be trusted. However, involvement does not equate to approval. It entails accepting the fact that wishing the Taliban away won’t solve Afghanistan’s issues. The alternative, ongoing fragmentation, only serves to benefit radical networks at the expense of neighbors.

It is impossible to exaggerate how urgent this issue is. Afghanistan is a natural intersection of South, Central, and West Asia due to its geographic location. The speed at which regional powers transition from conflicting objectives to shared responsibilities will determine whether that crossroads turns into a corridor of trade and stability or a hotbed of terrorism and drugs.

“Engaging the Taliban as a de facto authority to achieve shared goals does not imply acknowledging them as a genuine administration.”

In many respects, Western disengagement contributed to the development of the Taliban. It would be a collective failure, this time a regional one, to let Afghanistan continue to be a security vacuum. The neighbors of Afghanistan have a clear choice: work together or keep bearing the cost of instability on their own.

Itrat Batool graduated with a degree in International Relations from NUML University in Islamabad and is presently enrolled in National Defense University's MPhil program in Governance and Public Policy. She writes about foreign policy, regional security, and the dynamics of power in Asia.