From Dependency to Strategic Autonomy
March 20, 2026
Mishal Zahra

Germany is one of the world’s leading diplomatic and economic powers. Germany’s foreign policy has evolved since its unification in 1866, reflecting its post-war legacy, multilateral cooperation, protection of sovereignty, and the unified Europe, positioning itself as a middle power. With a population of 86 million people and Europe’s largest economy, Germany projects itself as a ‘good citizen’ of the international community by maintaining cooperation through economic diplomacy, international law, and human rights advocacy, even as it now pursues rearmament to serve as a stabiliser in Europe’s security framework.

Since the 1945 war, Germany’s state consciousness has been shaped by the “never again” mentality, resulting in a strong commitment to regional stability, multilateralism, and European integration. This constructive approach shapes its role in NATO as a key European ally, and one of the founding members of the EU, i.e., the ‘inner six’. It adopts a balancing approach between its Western allies, China, and the European Union, playing its important role as a promoter of peace.

The significant shift in Germany’s foreign policy occurred in the 1990s. With the end of the Cold War and the “Treaty on the Final Settlement with Respect to Germany”, the state became fully sovereign. With that, the trans-Atlantic partnership and European integration became the core principles of Germany’s foreign policy. Successive governments emphasised smooth continuity rather than abrupt changes in foreign policy, because they knew that other countries might worry if Germany began to become powerful again.

Germany leads quietly and deliberately avoids taking actions that might put the world into the prisoner’s dilemma. Rather than leveraging hard power, Germany consistently uses its economic leverage to lead and to promote the rule-based international order, being the second largest contributor to the UN. Germany amplifies its multilateral influence through funding UN peacekeeping missions, hosting thirty UN agencies in Bonn, and embedding training teams in Central African Republic peacekeeping operations. It does all that in such a manner that its domination feels like consensus.

Post World War II, Germany had an illusion that trade could tame the aggression, but this was shattered with the Russian invasion in 2022. After decades of restraint in atonement for the Second World War, Germany lifted its constitutional restraints on defence buildup. It now commits €108 billion to its annual defence spending and has stationed a permanent brigade in Lithuania for the first time since 1945.

When Vice President Vance attacked European democracies at the 2024 Munich Security Conference, Defence Minister Pistorius shouted “That is unacceptable” from the audience, signalling Germany’s emergence as a responsible actor. Germany should transition very carefully, as France and Poland grow increasingly insecure even as they demand German leadership within NATO. This can be done by embedding everything within the EU and NATO’s framework so that rearmament feels like reassurance, not a threat.

Germany’s foreign policy is mainly driven by its export-oriented economy, creating a persistent tension between values and interests. While Berlin remains China’s largest trading partner within the EU, increasing insecurity that stems from increased dependency enables it to pursue “de-risking” simultaneously.

German foreign direct investment in the US also faced a 45 percent decline in 2025 due to mistrust produced by tariffs. Germany enacted binding supply chain legislation for protection of abroad, facing backlash from German companies who see it as creating a competitive disadvantage. Any amendments in such laws would undermine the labour security abroad and also the German commitment to human rights.

Germany’s foreign policy is European, as its power originates from the EU and from partnerships within. It is the EU’s economic engine with a €4,329 billion GDP, the lowest unemployment at 3.3 percent, and a manageable debt of 62.2 percent, providing stability in turbulence.

The Franco-German cooperation, starting from the 1963 Élysée Treaty to the 2026 nuclear steering group, allows Germany to participate in French deterrent exercises, while tensions also persist along the industrial policies and joint fighter jets. Germany anchors the financial responsibility and drives the EU support for Kyiv as it hosts 1.2 million refugees. Germany also has a vision for the EU’s strategic autonomy, as the transatlantic partnership can no longer be taken for granted.

Germany’s foreign policy has evolved from “never again war” to taking the responsibility for peace. This requires moral leadership with hard power, as power determines outcomes in an increasingly uncertain world. Yet the internal partisan tensions have resulted in eroded trust among the EU due to abstentions and absence in EU legislation.

German interests and values collide, as it criticises the Chinese human rights record while remaining dependent on it for its green energy transition, and 17 business associations lobby to weaken supply chain protections. Thus, German foreign policy demands caution; it must deepen its commitment to multilateralism while accepting the greater responsibility to protect the EU financially and militarily. It should not emerge as a dominant power, yet a stabiliser that bridges the transatlantic ties, and proves that armament can feel like reassurance, not a threat.

The writer is a student of BS IR at National Defence University. She’s an independent researcher, and has a keen interest in geopolitics, foreign policy, and changing world order.

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