Umar Juraev
For a very long time, Central Asia was seen as a remote and landlocked region with limited economic options. This situation is now changing, as new transport routes and trade links are connecting the region more closely to Europe, China, and South Asia. Recent global events, especially the war in Ukraine, have made these connections more important by disrupting traditional trade routes.
Nevertheless, better connectivity does not automatically lead to development. Without stronger governance, transparency, and coordination, new infrastructure may increase dependence on external powers and deepen existing economic problems, such as inequality, instead of creating long-term growth and progress.
Both geographical realities and shifting geopolitical conditions have contributed to the rising importance of connectivity in Central Asia. As a landlocked region, Central Asia has long depended on a small number of transit routes, mainly those passing through Russia. Disruptions caused by sanctions and the war in Ukraine have exposed the risks of relying on a single corridor.
Meanwhile, major external powers, including China, the European Union, and Turkey, have increased their engagement through infrastructure and trade initiatives, viewing Central Asia as an important bridge between major markets. These developments have pushed regional governments to seek new routes and partnerships to reduce vulnerability and expand economic opportunities.
Consequently, multiple initiatives have gained prominence, including China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route linking Central Asia to Europe through the Caspian Sea, and growing interest in north–south corridors connecting Central Asia with South Asia through Afghanistan and Pakistan. These initiatives are driven not only by growth ambitions, but also by the strategic need to reduce dependence on Russia-centered transit routes that have become unreliable due to sanctions and geopolitical instability.
Improved connectivity offers Central Asia several important development opportunities. Better transport links reduce trade costs and help the region move beyond reliance on a narrow range of commodities such as oil, gas, and raw materials. By widening access to different markets, countries in the region can diversify their trade partners and export routes, making their economies more resilient to external shocks. Moreover, improved connectivity reduces Russia’s influence in Central Asia.
By expanding alternative routes and access to different markets, Central Asian states reduce Russia’s ability to use transit access as economic or political leverage, strengthening their bargaining position in trade and foreign policy. Connectivity also enables Central Asia to benefit from transit revenues, as goods moving between East and West pass through the region. Furthermore, improved regional links can support greater intra-regional trade, encouraging cooperation and economic integration among Central Asian states.
Despite its potential benefits, connectivity does not automatically lead to inclusive development in Central Asia. Weak governance remains a major challenge, particularly in the management of large infrastructure projects. Problems such as corruption, limited transparency, and poor regulatory oversight can reduce the economic impact of new transport corridors.
In some cases, these projects may benefit political elites while providing limited gains for small businesses and local communities. Without effective institutions and clear rules, connectivity risks reinforcing existing inequalities rather than promoting broad-based growth. Unless governance improves, infrastructure contracts tend to be captured by politically connected firms, increasing reliance on external actors instead of supporting shared economic development.
Connectivity in Central Asia is also shaped by growing competition among external powers, which creates both opportunities and risks for the region. China has become a major investor through the Belt and Road Initiative, financing railways, roads, and logistics hubs, particularly in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
According to regional trade data, China is the largest trading partner of all five Central Asian republics, having surpassed Russia in Tajikistan in 2025. Meanwhile, Russia continues to control key transit routes and remains central to regional security arrangements. Continued reliance on Russian transit routes exposes Central Asian economies to sanctions spillovers and limits their ability to pursue independent trade policies during geopolitical crises.
At the same time, the European Union has increased its engagement through the Global Gateway initiative, with a strong focus on the Trans-Caspian route. While these external interests have expanded options for Central Asian states, they have also raised concerns about overdependence. Without strong negotiating capacity and clear national strategies, infrastructure projects risk locking countries into asymmetric relationships that limit long-term economic and political autonomy.
The future impact of connectivity in Central Asia will largely depend on policy choices made today. If governments succeed in improving governance, strengthening institutions, and coordinating regionally, connectivity can support trade diversification, higher-value production, and sustainable transit revenues. In this positive scenario, success would be reflected in rising non-commodity exports and greater participation of domestic firms in regional supply chains.
Uzbekistan’s recent efforts to expand alternative trade routes beyond Russia illustrate how diversification can reduce vulnerability to external shocks. However, if reforms remain limited, connectivity may produce uneven outcomes, where infrastructure expands but domestic industries fail to develop and debt pressures increase. In such a scenario, rising infrastructure-related debt and limited domestic value creation would indicate that Central Asia is functioning primarily as a transit space rather than an economic hub.
Connectivity offers Central Asia a rare but significant opportunity to reposition itself within a changing global economy. Nevertheless, infrastructure alone will not determine the region’s future. The real challenge lies in governance: how projects are managed, who benefits from them, and how external partnerships are structured.
By prioritizing institutional reform, transparency, and regional coordination, Central Asian states can ensure that connectivity strengthens economic resilience rather than deepening dependency. The choices made now will determine whether connectivity becomes a foundation for inclusive development or another missed opportunity shaped by external interests.
The author is a International Relations scholar at Webster University in Tashkent. His academic work focuses on geopolitics, environmental security, and regional political and economic dynamics in Central Asia, with particular attention to connectivity, governance challenges, and development outcomes in landlocked regions.
