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In the past many years, especially from the Biden administration, it seems that great powers like Russia and China have taken so much interest in Middle Eastern politics, economy, and culture, which is unacceptable for the U.S because it has a big market and greater influence in the Middle East from past many years. From BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) to being a mediator, China’s role and influence is growing in the Middle East. It also spread its trade market across the region. Moreover, Russia came back to the Middle East in 2015 during the Syrian civil war and after it started expanding its interest and influence in the region.
‘’Impossible for three great powers to co-exist in one region peacefully’’
On September 2015, Russia launched military intervention after request by Bashar-al-Assad for military support in his fight against Syrian opposition and Islamic state in the Syrian civil war. Intervention starts with extensive airstrikes across Syria. Moreover, it involves diplomatic support for Assad and billions of dollars. After this in 2027, Russian government announced to deploy its troops permanently in Syria. Also, Russia uses its oil diplomacy to booster economic relations with Middle East in November 2025 when it voluntarily adjusts with eight OPEC states to review global market conditions and outlook. From these projects and involvements, Russia connects with Middle East both in terms of security and economy which strengthen its position in Middle East.
The super power is also increasing its exposure and influence in Middle Eastern states by its soft power and diplomacy. Like rest of some regions, Middle East is also home to china’s BRI projects especially with GCC states. Its trade with these states was more than $230 Billion in 2021. Moreover, China has more than 500 investment deals with Israel. In the field of cooperation, China also play crucial role by digital Silk Road and technological powerhouse.
In March 2023, China becomes mediator between Saudi Arabia and Iran which were very new approach for china and eye-opening for rest of the world especially for U.S. Through this move, China also involved in Middle Eastern politics and its positive role emerged. Also in Feb 2024, during representation at International Court of Justice, china mention right to self -determination and neglect the use of armed struggle which were indirectly in support for Hamas. This highlights the positive role of China in the eyes of Muslim states.
But the increasing role and influence of China and Russia in Middle East doesn’t mean America’s back-off from the region. In the very start of interventions, U.S didn’t take it much serious but now, U.S also starts to strengthen its relations with old allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia. In 2021, the alliance were formed named as ‘’I2U2’’ between Israel, UAE, U.S and India to foster economic development and technological innovation through joint investment in areas like water, energy, transportation, space and food security. This partnership strengthens the role of U.S in Middle East. Also U.S. imposes sanctions on China for their support to Iran Ballistic Missile Program to weak China’s approach.
These three great powers expand their exposure and influence in Middle East for their own connectivity or benefits and to counter each other. Because it is impossible for these great powers to co-exist in one region which is biggest threat for Middle East. It is just a beginning of disagreement and some sort of cold war in Middle East which transform into a great war in the coming years. To contain each other is the main reason of these states. Middle Eastern states depend on these states in term of economy, security and technology which could be trap for them.
‘’In the coming war, they could bound to be on one side’’
To conclude, it is impossible for Middle Eastern states to be on one side because they truly depends on these great powers and it could be a biggest threat for them in the coming great war.
The author is a student of International Relations at the National University of Modern Languages, Islamabad. Her area of interest is Middle East politics.
