Prof. Dr. Adam Saud
Geo-strategically, Eurasia is one of the most important regions of the world. More importantly, the region I witnessing profound transformations since the disintegration of Soviet Union. The security environment of the region is fragmented, militarized, and multipolar. Russian influence has weakened while China’s increased trade and investment in infrastructure development has refrain it from direct Western influence.
Nevertheless, the region is engulfed with conflicts like Ukraine War, terrorism, Karabakh conflict, and water and border conflicts, hence is governed by threat perceptions and strategic interests. Being at the epicenter of the East European security landscape, Ukraine war has militarized the NATO’s eastern flank. Moreover, new membership to NATO has also been witnessed where Sweden and Finland have joined it. These developments have forced NATO to revive its collective defense mantra.
This security dilemma in the form of Ukraine Conflict has led NATO to deploy more troops at the forwards fronts. Another important dimension of this situation is the use of hybrid warfare against each other. This warfare is not only confined to disinformation and energy coercion but also relies on the cyber operations. States use economic sanctions against each other as a strategic tool. Hence the Eastern Europe has returned towards the adaptation of Realist reflections in its external outlook. This reflection is based on deterrence, escalation control, and bloc politics, replacing cooperative security.
For the Russian policy makers, new world order which emerged after the end of Cold War is primarily biased towards Russian interests. In the current scenario, Moscow wants to prevent NATO’s further eastward expansion. It also wants to keep the “near Abroad” under its zone of influence. At the same it wants to challenge the Western global as well as regional dominance without any kind of direct confrontation.
In order to achieve these objectives, Moscow relies on military power as well as nuclear signaling. Ukraine conflict is the best example of this strategy. It also uses the hybrid tools alongwith the asymmetric strategies. Moscow has also intensified its strategic partnerships with the Global South particularly China, India, and Iran. Nevertheless, this prolonged conflict entering into its fifth year, has deep imprint on Russian economy and military. Furthermore, it has also reduced Moscow’s leverage in the traditional areas of its ‘influence’. Although, Russia still is a central actor in the region but not an active one, rather it is more reactive now.
Recently concluded Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia also have deep imprints on the evolving security paradigm in the region. Azerbaijan liberated its occupied lands by force due to failure of Russia’s role to resolve the conflict. This has exposed the peacekeeping credibility of the Russian forces in the region as well. Moreover, this development has paved the way for the rise of other regional actors, like Turkiye which supported Azerbaijan alongwith Pakistan in the liberation of its occupied lands.
On the other hand, this also reflects the assertive posture of Azerbaijan which has done military modernization over the period of time. Baku has also been successful in forging important strategic partnerships within and beyond the region. This liberation has also brought the decades old frozen conflict to decisive outcome.
On the other hand Armenia had to face the defeat due to its heavy reliance on Moscow for its security guarantees in the form of Collective Security Treaty Organisation, and the absence of effective multilateral security arrangements. It has also exposed the limits of alliance dependence. These developments have led the Caucasus region toward a new regional security structure where Russia is not a dominant actor now.
With the advent of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Initiation of International North South Trade Corridor, rise of Taliban in Afghanistan, and the proposed trans Afghan Railways project, Central Asia has regained its strategic position it enjoyed during the middle centuries. The region has achieved the status of strategic crossroads from merely a passive periphery. All the regional states pursue multivector policy while trying to have good relations with all the regional and global powers. This policy also helps them to avoid the overreliance and influence of any single power.
Central Asian region faces water and border conflicts rooted in the colonial history. Soviet arbitrary demarcation of territories during 1920s and 1930s left many border conflicts which reemerged after the independence. Although, border conflicts have been settled down, water conflicts still exist. Soviet irrational irrigation structure has resulted in the drying up of Aral Sea which is only 10% of its full capacity now.
This has also created severe environmental problem in the region, particularly, western Uzbekistan and South Western Kazakhstan. Furthermore, extremism and terrorism emanating from Afghanistan is also a major security threat to this region. Terrorist networks like Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Tehreek-e-Taliban Tajikistan, Daesh, al-Qaeda, and East Turkestan Islamic Movement are based in Afghanistan under the patronage of current Afghan regime, which are direct threat to the Central Asian states. Economic vulnerability amid landlocked nature and climate stress are other important challenges to Central Asia.
Like in South Caucasus, Russian influence has been on the decline. These states have found few alternative routes for the export of their hydrocarbons as well as international trade. China has invested billions of dollars for the infrastructure and transportation network development, which has supplemented the Vision of Central Asian states.
China has become the largest trade partner of Central Asia. It is also the largest foreign investor in the region. Moreover, EU and Turkiye are focusing on the soft power. They encourage Central Asian states to explore and use the Caspian Sea routes for international trade. However, Central Asian states understand that their stability increasingly depends on regional cooperation rather than external security guarantees.
Apparently, the Eurasian security landscape is heading towards fragmentation. One thing is clear that no single power can guarantee the stability while playing its role in the region. Future security of the Eurasian region seems fragile and will depend on what kind of regional diplomacy is practiced.
Although, conflict resolution at this stage seems difficult, conflict management can better serve to bring peace and stability. Furthermore, without flexible and inclusive security arrangements, peace in the region won’t be achievable. The challenge ahead is not restoring the old order, but preventing unmanaged escalation in a fractured one.
The author is a Professor of International Relations at Bahria University, Islamabad, Pakistan.
