Geopolitics of Space: Strategic Competition in the 21st Century

Kausar Fatima

When people once thought of space, they imagined astronauts floating above the Earth or rovers sending back pictures of Mars. For a long time, it looked like a place reserved for science and discovery. But in the 21st century, that image has changed. Space today is no longer just an “out there” adventure. It is right at the center of global politics. Countries see it as a place to show their strength, to claim resources, and to secure influence for the future.

The 21st-century space race blends politics, technology, and economics into a contest for global influence.

Satellites are a good example of how space quietly controls our daily lives. We depend on them to move money through banks, to guide airplanes, to predict the weather, even to run social media. For armies, they are even more critical. Missiles rely on them, soldiers communicate through them, and early warning systems depend on them. Without satellites, modern warfare would almost collapse.

At the same time, countries are now looking at the Moon and beyond. The south pole of the Moon, for instance, may contain frozen water that could be turned into rocket fuel. Some also talk about helium-3 and rare metals that could power future industries. Because of this, the global “space economy” is growing so fast that some experts believe it could cross one trillion dollars by 2040. It is not only about science anymore—it is about money, prestige, and power.

The United States is still the clear leader. It spent about $73 billion on space in 2023, which is more than all other countries combined. It’s a big project, the Artemis program, which plans to send astronauts back to the Moon as early as the mid-2020s and later prepare for Mars. But what makes America different today is how private companies are driving the change. SpaceX, for example, has made launches far cheaper and more frequent, and this has reshaped the global market. Alongside technology, Washington is also building a political framework. Through the Artemis Accords, signed by over thirty states, the U.S. is rallying partners around its vision of space governance.

China, however, is moving very fast. Only two decades ago, it was seen as a beginner. Today, it has its own space station, Tiangong, successful lunar missions, and even a rover on Mars. Beijing plans to send its astronauts to the Moon by 2030. It is also building the Guowang mega-constellation, a network of thousands of satellites meant to rival Western systems. Most importantly, it has teamed up with Russia to launch the International Lunar Research Station, which directly challenges the U.S.-led Artemis Accords. Unlike America’s private-sector model, China’s system is tightly state-controlled, which allows for rapid progress but leaves little room for outside influence.

The U.S. leads with private innovation, while China’s state-driven model rapidly closes the gap.

Russia’s story is very different. It was once the pioneer of space, the country that sent the first man into orbit. But after the Ukraine war and Western sanctions, its space program has been badly hit. It lost access to advanced electronics and saw its revenues fall by billions. Roscosmos, the Russian space agency, has announced projects like the Russian Orbital Service Station, but few believe they will happen on time. Moscow now depends heavily on China, a huge contrast to the Cold War days when it competed neck and neck with the U.S.

The excitement of exploration is shadowed by another reality: the militarization of space. In 2007, China shocked the world by destroying one of its satellites with a missile. The U.S. did the same a year later, and India followed in 2019. These anti-satellite tests proved how vulnerable space assets are. Satellites can also be jammed, hacked, or shadowed by rival spacecraft. Military planners now openly admit that the next major war could extend into orbit.

This growing rivalry has split space into blocs. On one side, the U.S. and its allies promote the Artemis Accords, framing space as a cooperative venture but under rules that suit them. On the other side, China and Russia push their ILRS project, offering an alternative for states that reject U.S. leadership. Both sides are eyeing the Moon’s south pole, rich in water ice. That region could easily become the first flashpoint of a confrontation in space.

The stakes are very high. Control over resources in space could shift the balance of power on Earth. Whoever secures lunar fuel reserves, orbital positions, or large satellite constellations will hold advantages that go beyond science. They could shape global economics and security for decades. In many ways, space today looks like the oceans of the past: whoever rules the high seas holds power. Now, whoever controls the orbits and the Moon may define the future order.

Militarization and rival blocs risk turning the Moon and orbits into future geopolitical flashpoints.

The 21st-century space race is not just about rockets or astronauts. It is about politics, economics, and who writes the rules. The U.S. remains ahead, China is catching up fast, India is rising, and Russia is struggling to hold on. Unlike the Cold War, where two superpowers raced against each other, today’s contest involves many more actors and far more complex stakes. Space has become a chessboard, and every satellite, rover, and mission is a move in that game. What happens above Earth in the coming decades will not remain distant. It will shape the balance of power right here on our planet.

The author is currently pursuing a bachelor’s degree in International Relations at Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. She writes on foreign policy, global diplomacy, and contemporary geopolitical issues.