Hypersonic Missiles: A Game Changer in Warfare and the Global Strategic Scenario

Shahzad Masood Roomi

Hypersonic missile technology is revolutionizing the global military paradigm, bringing speed, precision, and complexity into modern warfare that has never been seen before. Hypersonic missiles represent a new frontier in missile technology, capable of flying at speeds greater than Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound. This article will examine the history and technological advances of hypersonic missiles and their strategic implications regarding possibly reshaping the dynamics of global security.

Hypersonic flight is nothing new. In fact, its concept dates back to the 20th century when engineers first explored the idea of flying at incredibly high speeds. The first practical vehicle to achieve near-hypersonic speeds was the German V-2 rocket, developed during World War II. It wasn’t, however, until the Cold War that much serious advancement in hypersonic technology was really considered, probably due to the space race between the United States and the Soviet Union.

Hypersonic missiles represent a new frontier in missile technology, capable of flying at speeds greater than Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound.

In the 1950s and 60s, both countries began the actual experimentation with hypersonic flight in the shape of re-entry vehicles for ICBMs and experimental aircraft, including the North American X-15. While early hypersonic systems had been mainly oriented toward space exploration and nuclear deterrence, in recent development, the main interest has shifted to military applications.

The development of deployable hypersonic weapons systems became a frenzied game in the 21st century, especially since the U.S. pulled out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002. In the case of countries like Russia and China, the emergence of hypersonic missiles, which would evade current defense systems, was thus an opportunity for a strategic gain. Today, they are among the most progressive and promising means of warfare, alongside Russia’s Avangard, China’s DF-ZF, and the Hypersonic Glide Vehicle, or HGV, program in the U.S.

The development of deployable hypersonic weapons systems became a frenzied game in the 21st century, especially since the U.S. pulled out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002.

Hypersonic missiles combine extremely high speed with high maneuverability, making them very hard to stop by classic missile defense systems. There are two main categories of hypersonic weapons:

• Hypersonic Glide Vehicles: These are launched from a rocket into the upper atmosphere and glide to their target at hypersonic speeds. Unlike traditional ballistic missiles, HGVs could maneuver in mid-flight to change course and altitude, which greatly complicates tracking and interception.

• Hypersonic Cruise Missiles (HCMs): These are powered by advanced air-breathing engines called scramjets, which enable them to sustain hypersonic speed throughout their flight. HCMs fly within the atmosphere, increasing their agility and making their detection more difficult.

Hypersonic missile technology is all about overcoming huge technical barriers to flying at more than Mach 5. If one goes that fast, there is tremendous heat generated simply by air resistance and friction-well more than 1,000 degrees centigrade. What’s more, to maintain accuracy and direction at such speeds demands highly developed guidance systems linked to real-time adjustments.

The countries developing hypersonic weapons are also working on improved propulsion systems, like ramjet and scramjet engines, along with advanced aerodynamics, to optimize missiles with the best range, speed, and maneuverability.

To maintain accuracy and direction at such speeds demands highly developed guidance systems linked to real-time adjustments.

The technological development of hypersonic weapons is especially contentious regarding their role in forming global nuclear stability, primarily based on their speed and maneuverability, and the risk of misjudging the actions of an adversary in a potential conflict. The important ways in which hypersonic weapons may impact nuclear stability include the following:

Hypersonic missiles are thought to exceed by far Mach 5, where any crisis would afford much less time for decision-making. This potential for extremely rapid response could result in misunderstandings about the nature of an incoming attack. A conventional hypersonic strike could be mistakenly perceived as a nuclear attack, and a nuclear-armed state might respond with nuclear weapons in a bid to outrun a perceived disarming strike.

Deployment of hypersonic weapons can put the survivability of nuclear arsenals into question. The states might be concerned that the most likely use of such weapons would be through a surprise attack on their nuclear forces, an action that forces them to increase the operational alertness of their nuclear forces or to adopt pre-emptive measures. More alertness in essence means less security in an unstable environment, as countries are forced to take immediate responses to perceived threats.

A conventional hypersonic strike could be mistakenly perceived as a nuclear attack, and a nuclear-armed state might respond with nuclear weapons in a bid to outrun a perceived disarming strike.

Adding hypersonic weapons to military arsenals further blurs the lines between nuclear and conventional capabilities. The so-called “entanglement” raises the stakes in any conflict, as conventional hypersonic strikes could inadvertently escalate into nuclear exchanges. Generally, hypersonic missiles have a lot of mystery surrounding them, including what their payload consists of, which makes the inadvertent escalation during a crisis all too real since a state might misattribute an attack on its conventional forces as an assault on its nuclear capabilities.

Hypersonic weapons development will almost certainly form an arms race because states will try to offset adversary capabilities. This is a competitive dynamic that can result in rapid military buildups and reduced prospects for arms control, making the international security environment more unstable. The proliferation of hypersonic technology to minor powers could worsen these risks by the possible adoption of hair-trigger readiness postures and more credible threats against major powers.

Hypersonic weapons could undermine traditional concepts of deterrence. Uncertainty about how missile defenses might function against hypersonic attack vectors would force states to reconsider their nuclear postures. Any state concerned by the prospect of its being deprived of a second-strike capability will have no choice but to take action to enhance the survivability of its nuclear forces, or adjust its states of readiness in ways designed to render this capability more difficult to impinge upon; the pressure thus generated in the balance of power is likely to be destabilizing.

The advent of hypersonic weapons brings a set of risks that could change the global nuclear stability landscape dramatically. Reduced response times, the potential for misinterpretation, and the intermingling of nuclear and conventional forces mean careful attention is warranted for arms control measures and strategic dialogues to reduce these risks and improve world security.

Author is an independent security and geopolitics analyst.