The Divided Fronts
November 1, 2025
Memoona Asmaar
A stable and peaceful Afghanistan is not only Pakistan’s foreign policy priority but also a strategic necessity. The bilateral relations between the two states have undergone various shifts, from cooperation to confrontation, as Pakistan played a significant role during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, as well as the US-led Global War on Terror. Pakistan shares an approximately 2600 km long, porous border with Afghanistan; therefore, decisions taken in Kabul can influence both internal and external security of Pakistan.
The Pakistan Security Report 2024, published by the Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies, indicates an alarming 70% increase in terrorist attacks in Pakistan compared to the previous year. Although terrorism affects all regions of Pakistan, over 95% of attacks occurred in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan, Pakistan’s provinces that border Afghanistan.
“A stable and peaceful Afghanistan is not only Pakistan’s foreign policy priority but also a strategic necessity.”
The Global Terrorism Index (2025) ranked Pakistan the second most impacted country by terrorism, only behind Burkina Faso and worse than war-torn Syria and Afghanistan. These statistics underscore a grim security situation in Pakistan. After the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Islamabad expected the interim Afghan government to use its influence to restrain Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP) activities in Pakistan.
However, terrorist incidents in Pakistan have continued to rise, validating Islamabad’s assessment that the Afghan Taliban either lack the capacity or the willingness to prevent the TTP and other terrorist outfits from using their soil. Islamabad views it as a failure of the Afghan government to implement the Doha Accord, despite its pledge to prevent terrorist groups from operating from Afghan land.
The security situation in Afghanistan is directly impacting the socio-economic conditions of its population. The Human Development Index in Afghanistan is among the lowest in the region due to decades of war and instability, resulting in widespread poverty and unemployment. Afghanistan is a landlocked country, and much of its economy depends on the transit trade from Pakistan and adjacent states.
The unrest along the Pak-Afghan border further deteriorates the fragile economy of Afghanistan. The border closures result in the loss of goods worth millions of dollars. The situation also undermines Pakistan’s efforts towards economic integration and regional trade. Therefore, it is imperative to have a robust border management system along the Pak-Afghan border for sustainable economic prosperity.
“Over 95% of terrorist attacks in Pakistan occur in provinces bordering Afghanistan.”
Regional connectivity and economic integration are essential for the prosperity and development of millions living in the region. Pakistan’s strategic location places it at the crossroads of South, Central, and West Asia. Afghanistan provides Pakistan a gateway to energy-rich Central Asian states. However, due to multifaceted security challenges faced by Afghanistan, it is unable to gain the maximum benefits from its location.
The energy initiatives, such as TAPI and CASA-1000, are delayed and have limited progress due to the political instability and the security situation in Afghanistan. Moreover, Pakistan and China have negotiated with Afghanistan on the potential extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to promote economic growth and regional connectivity. If successfully materialized, these opportunities can change the lives of millions affected by poverty and unemployment.
Traditionally, Pakistan’s approach towards Afghanistan has remained security-centric. However, Pakistan’s National Security Policy (2022-2026) marked a paradigm shift from a geo-strategic to a geo-economic approach, introducing a people-centric comprehensive national security framework. The policy envisages peace and stability in the region and beyond as a key enabler for economic growth and the overall security situation of Pakistan.
Pakistan’s geographic location offers strategic leverage to act as a bridge between Central Asian states, South Asia, and the Middle East. An efficient border management system along the Pak-Afghan border and peace and stability in Afghanistan can enhance economic activity through improved regional connectivity.
For Pakistan to have meaningful results from its geo-economic strategy, it is essential to have a constructive diplomatic engagement with Kabul. However, due to the Afghan Taliban’s inability to act against TTP and other terrorist organizations, Afghanistan continues to face economic deprivation as well as diplomatic isolation.
Moreover, India is allegedly using Afghan soil to sponsor terrorist groups such as the BLA, which have been responsible for various terrorist activities in Pakistan, including the one on the Jaffar Express. The Afghan government’s failure to address this issue has isolated it within the international community. Concrete actions taken by the Afghan government against terrorist outfits could help build diplomatic trust and credibility, paving the way for their formal recognition.
“Pakistan’s National Security Policy marks a shift from a geo-strategic to a geo-economic approach.”
Peace in Afghanistan is not merely a diplomatic priority for Pakistan but a strategic necessity for its national security and regional interests. Pakistan welcomed the ceasefire, concluded after negotiations at Doha, Qatar, and reiterated its resolve for a “peaceful, stable, friendly, inclusive, regionally connected, and prosperous Afghanistan.” However, Islamabad made it clear that restraint by Pakistan should not be mistaken for weakness, and the Afghan Taliban should fulfill their commitment to take action against those using their soil for terrorism.
The solution lies in a structured composite dialogue between the governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan to settle issues related to border management, security, and economic integration, with a hope for a stable and prosperous Afghanistan, essential for regional stability and the economic well-being of millions of Afghans who have already suffered due to the decades-long wars.
The author is pursuing a PhD in International Relations from Lahore College of Women University, Lahore.
