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On September 11, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a historic defense pact in the presence of Field Marshal Asim Munir and Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif. What was initially concocted narrative during the Pahalgam incident, designed to isolate Pakistan diplomatically and strategically, has instead evolved into a decisive strategic victory for Pakistan. After decades of external pressures and internal political, security, and economic challenges, Pakistan is repositioning itself not just as a marginal actor but as a pivotal force in the international arena.
Pakistan’s pact with Riyadh marks a symbolic shift but risks strategic overextension and contradictions.
May it be the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) or the Arab Islamic Summit, or this latest defense accord between two brotherly Muslim nations? Pakistan is being highly recognized as a stabilizing agent in the region. This historic shift in Pakistan’s diplomatic mechanism is not mere ceremonial. Rather, it reflects Pakistan’s growing ability to navigate the complexities of global politics, recalibrate its diplomacy, and reclaim its role in international politics as a balancing power in a perpetual in-conflict world.
There is little that is novel in the recent Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SDMA) between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Both states have long sustained a mutual strategic partnership, including joint military training, exercises, and defense cooperation, well before the formalization of defense relations. Presently, an estimated 1500-2000 Pakistani military personnel are playing their roles in Saudi Arabia in advisor, trainer, and security provider positions.
Over the decades, Pakistan has trained nearly 8000-10000 Saudi military personnel and has periodically stationed units in the United Kingdom to intensify Defense cooperation. Nevertheless, while this pact has created unlimited opportunities for Pakistan, it simultaneously engenders a series of repercussions that may cause perilous effects on Pakistan in the long run.
Entering into a defense agreement with one country inevitably exposes the country to complex and challenging strategic complexities. In the international global arena, diplomacy and prudence demand strategic maneuvering rather than explicitly revealing your foreign policy agendas. Yet Pakistan, by pledging unequivocal military and diplomatic support to Saudi Arabia, has exposed its regional agenda, a move that risks diplomatic isolation.
The challenging dilemma emerges if tensions between Riyadh and Tehran escalate: Pakistan, while tacitly endorsing Tehran’s nuclear enrichment program despite sanctions, has simultaneously aligned itself with Tehran’s rival. So, these contradictory alignments in the “craze” of diplomacy will require Islamabad more precarious strategic tightrope, testing the very resilience of its foreign policy framework.
Aligning with Saudi Arabia could unsettle Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine and invite global scrutiny.
Moreover, Pakistan itself grapples with both internal and external security predicaments, ranging from the Baloch insurgency to cross-border terrorism emanating from western border with Afghanistan. Entering into an expansive defense pact, already scrambling Islamabad, maybe proved as entangling for itself. This defense pact can be proved as entangling for Islamabad in extraneous conflicts, be it Yemen’s civil war, a prospective Saudi-Iran confrontation, or Saudi’s potential clashes with rogue and irresponsible Israel. Militarily aligning with Riyadh implies a quasi-collective defense agreement, where “attack on one state would be considered as an attack on both”.
Such an involvement in external conflicts, for the sake of diplomacy, risk overextending Pakistan’s strategic bandwidth. A state already plagued by various internal and external security, political, and economic challenges cannot afford the burden of direct or even peripheral involvement in a volatile international theater.
Deeper military cooperation with Riyadh risks unsetting Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine, inviting more complexities for Pakistan in the global arena. Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine has long been officially declared as India-centric. However, any semblance of extended deterrence or nuclear umbrella to Riyadh would erode Islamabad’s credibility within global politics and potentially invite forms of sanctions from already “unhappy-major powers” with Pakistan’s nuclear program. Such commitments expose guarantor state to entanglements in both regional and global conflicts and the danger of potential escalation into wider wars. In this alliance-oriented global political scenario, Pakistan would face severe domestic criticism, reputational damage, and strategic defeat, which would make New Delhi comfortable.
By signing a defense agreement with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan has unintentionally created strategic openings for its long-term adversary, India, calibrating the regional balance to its advantage. Leveraging its deepest economic ties, soft power diplomacy, and energy dependency with the Gulf states, New Delhi can frame the pact as a destabilizing arrangement and simultaneously consolidate its partnerships in the region. India’s substantial investment leverage across the Gulf may further dilute Islamabad’s ambitions in the Gulf region, after the pact. Simultaneously, Gulf states may perceive Pakistan’s military-centric posture as a liability, whereas India’s image of soft power and economic stability can render New Delhi a more attractive and reliable ally.
In this volatile global scenario, Pakistan must pursue immediate measures to protect its strategic posture and current diplomatic momentum. For this, Islamabad must dispatch a high-level delegation, including senior officials both civilian and military, to the Gulf capitals to reassure partners of its benign intentions and simultaneously underscore its willingness to broaden its economic ties to counterweight New Delhi. Equally important is the need for Pakistan to issue a precise statement for clarification about its nuclear doctrine that remains India-centric. Such clarity would preempt misconceptions, misinterpretations, mitigate risks of sanctions, and forestall diplomatic isolation on the global stage.
Islamabad must balance diplomacy through multilateralism, calibrated engagement, and reassurance to regional partners.
In the longer horizon, firstly, Pakistan must recalibrate its foreign policy to reduce strategic vulnerabilities that Pakistan may face after this alignment with Riyadh. Building on established partnerships with non-Gulf nations, including China (Pakistan’s iron-clad partner), Turkey, and Azerbaijan, Islamabad must prioritize multilateralism and diversify its diplomatic, economic, and military engagements. Multilateralism will not only mitigate over-dependence on a single country but also strengthen Pakistan’s image and credibility while countering Indian influence in the Arab world. Secondly, it is also imperative for Pakistan to pursue quiet and calibrated diplomacy between Tehran and Riyadh. Pakistan must adopt a proactive approach with prudence and foresight: celebrating new alignments with restraint, acting with strategic logic rather than emotional gratification, and proactively safeguarding its national interest.
The author is currently pursuing his Bachelor's degree in Peace and Conflict Studies from the National Defence University, Islamabad. He is also a daily contributor to several prestigious newspapers in Pakistan, including Dawn, The News International, The Express Tribune, and The Nation. His area of interest involves Middle Eastern Geopolitics, Security and Foreign Policy of the U.S and Russia.
