Zhainagul Ondosheva
Around 80% of Central Asia’s river runoff is formed by snow and glacier melt. Those glaciers are shrinking: all 23 glaciers monitored by the WMO in High Mountain Asia lost mass in 2025. Much of this water originates in Kyrgyzstan. As climate change makes water storage and regulation more expensive and less predictable, Kyrgyzstan continues to carry most of the infrastructure costs, while the downstream countries, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, which benefit from this water, do not share the cost of its maintenance. The agreements governing this exchange is outdated, and a permanent cost-sharing agreement is needed.
For Kyrgyzstan, environmental changes create challenges beyond the availability of water. According to Vladimir Grebnev, an expert in climate change, over the past 20 years the warm period (days when the temperature rises above zero) has started about 10–15 days earlier, while days below zero are retreating significantly.
Earlier snowmelt and intensive glacier melt can affect the timing of river flows, making it more difficult to plan water storage and distribution in advance throughout the year. This is particularly important for a country that relies mostly on hydropower for electricity generation. During normal hydrological conditions, hydropower typically accounts for around 90% of Kyrgyzstan’s electricity generation.
Kyrgyzstan owns key upstream infrastructure, particularly the Toktogul Reservoir and the Naryn hydropower cascade, which play a big role for all three states. At the Regional Environmental Summit in Astana, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov underlined that Kyrgyzstan produces approximately 50 billion cubic meters of water annually but uses only 12 billion for its own needs, while 38 billion cubic meters go to its neighbors.
Likewise, operating such installations requires major and long-term financial investments for their maintenance, renovation, and upgrading. Many existing reservoirs and hydropower plants were built decades ago and require regular technical check-ups, equipment renewals, and improvements to water regulation systems.
Kyrgyzstan remains the major contributor to these expenses, while its neighbors benefit from this water without compensation for infrastructure costs. The scale of this responsibility can be illustrated by the rehabilitation of the Toktogul HPP, whose second-phase project was estimated at $251.68 million and financed through international grants and domestic contributions. Existing seasonal energy exchanges do not necessarily cover the long-term costs of infrastructure development.
Moreover, the agreement signed in 1998, titled “Agreement on the Use of Water and Energy Resources of the Syr Darya Basin,” lists only water-saving technologies and reduced polluted discharges, but the text does not specifically mention climate risks for Kyrgyzstan. Its text addresses only environmental safety but does not explicitly mention climate change. According to a 2023 study published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 66% of the river runoff in the upper Naryn basin can be attributed to melting glaciers in August.
However, the downstream countries are not just free riders. In the autumn–winter period, Kazakhstan provided Kyrgyzstan with 1.44 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity. Uzbekistan supplied 1.137 billion kilowatt-hours during the same period. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan’s domestic generation amounted to 15.4 billion kilowatt-hours, showing that not every cost of the reservoir is incurred for the benefit of its neighbors. Together, the two neighbors supplied about 2.6 billion kWh, roughly 17% of Kyrgyzstan’s 15.4 billion kWh of domestic generation.
This is meaningful help; however, deals concerning water exchanges are made season by season and paid for stored water, not for maintenance. One approach would be the creation of a water infrastructure fund for the upstream country, financed by downstream countries according to the gains they receive. Such a mechanism would need clear rules to make financial contributions predictable. Decisions on how to use the funds could be made through regional discussions.
Climate change demonstrates the weaknesses of Central Asia’s existing water-sharing system. While downstream countries benefit from water stored and regulated by Kyrgyzstan, the responsibility of maintaining this infrastructure largely remains with the upstream state. Climate change raises the cost of storing and regulating water within the country.
Existing exchange agreements provide short-term benefits but do not address growing maintenance and adaptation costs. The question is not about who owns the water. The question is whether the region is willing to invest in the systems that keep it flowing.
Zhainagul Ondosheva is an International and Comparative Politics student at the American University of Central Asia. Her interests include regional cooperation, climate policy, and sustainable development in Central Asia, including organizing local environmental activities and participating in international youth forums.
