Prof. Dr. Adam Saud
Among few of the volatile regions of the world, Middle East is probably the most turbulent in the contemporary global geopolitics. This region witnesses sharp ideological differences alongwith the resource competition and geopolitical rivalries. Once Washington’s blue eyed, Iran emerged as an enemy to the US and Israel after the Islamic Revolution. During the past, Israel has conducted few strikes on the Iranian strategic targets to which Iran also retaliated.
However, the most recent full-fledged attack by US and Israel on Iran is unprecedented. This attack has brought instability not only in the region but with far reaching impacts a global level. The ‘Operation Lion’s Roar’ targets Iranian leadership, killing the supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei and other top officials. It also targets the Iranian missile facilities, nuclear installations, and key military infrastructure. The attacks also killed many non-combatants including hundreds of innocent school girls.
Since the attack was unannounced and surprising for Iran as well as the international community, Iranian reaction time was a bit late which brought disaster to Iran particularly death of the op leadership. Nevertheless, Iranian retaliation has also been intensive. It not only fired missiles on Israel but also on the military and naval basis of the US in the neighboring Arab Kingdoms of UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. This war against Iran has sent serious economic, political, and security shockwaves across the whole world. This article analyzes the causes of the conflict, its military and strategic dynamics, and the broader global ramifications.
The 1979 Islamic Revolution brought a paradigm shift in Iran-US relations. Since then, Tehran has positioned Washington as the worst enemy in its foreign policy posture. It always opposes the US hegemony in global politics and support to Israeli atrocities against the non-combatant Palestinians. Tehran also does not like the US military and Naval presence in the neighboring Persian Gulf region. It also supports the anti-Israel non state actors. Conversely, Tel Aviv has regarded Iran’s nuclear ambitions and support for regional “proxy” groups as existential threats.
Iranian nuclear programme has been a direct threat to the Israeli military supremacy in the region. Despite Tehran’s claim about the civilian use of nuclear facilities, Tel Aviv has always declared it to be used for the development of nuclear weapons. There had been several rounds of discussions and other diplomatic efforts to mitigate the tension between Iran and the West as well as Israel. Most of these rounds resulted in failures.
Tehran’s support to anti-Israel groups like Hamas and Hezbollah against Israel further intensified this animosity. On the other hand Israel, supported by the United States, has conducted numerous covert and overt operations aimed at weakening these networks and delaying Iran’s nuclear progress.
The turning point came on 28 February 2026, when Israel and the United States launched coordinated strikes against multiple Iranian targets, including facilities in Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, and other strategic locations. This attack aimed to eliminate the top Iranian leadership alongwith degrading its nuclear facilities. These were coordinated attacks supported by the cyber operations. The operations particularly targeted the command-and-control infrastructure. Iranian retaliation through missiles and drone operations reflects its capacity to strike the targets beyond its territories. It also underscored the vulnerability of regional military infrastructure. Getting advantage of the situation, Hezbollah also launched attacks on Israel from Lebanon.
If prolonged and intensified, there are chances that the whole regional will be plunged into this war. The Middle East is characterized by complex alliances and proxy networks, meaning that localized confrontations often expand rapidly. Iran’s contacts with multiple armed groups helps it opening up multiple fronts against the adversaries. One example is the attacks of Hezbollah to which Israel has retaliated by striking their hideouts in Lebanon and even in Syria. This can be seen as the first step towards the expansion of the war.
Iranian missile attacks against the US armed forces facilities across the Persian Gulf region can be a strategy to increase the cost for the US and Israel. It will also put a direct pressure on the US allies in the region but at the same, avoiding the direct large scale conventional warfare. The war has also brought the civilian causalities and injuries not only in Iran but in other regional states. Such developments heighten the risk of miscalculation, where accidental escalation could draw additional states into the conflict.
Being one of the most crucial energy suppliers, the Middle Eastern instability will have profound and immediate effects on the global energy security. It will also impact the global trade flows though the region. Blockade or hat to the energy supplies to international markets will adversely affect the production of supply chain of global trade products. One fifth of the world’s oil is shipped through the Straits of Hormuz. Iran’s attacks on the oil tankers and ships in this region have halted the maritime traffic since the start of the War, hence disrupting the oil supplies to international markets.
Within a couple of days of the start of the war, global energy prices have gone up, and if the war continues for few more days, they will skyrocket. These developments carry broader macroeconomic implications. Rising energy prices contribute to inflation, increase transportation costs, and strain economies already grappling with post-pandemic recovery and geopolitical uncertainty. Financial markets have also experienced volatility, with declines in stock indices and disruptions in aviation and tourism sectors. Most of the energy importing states in Europe and Asia are going to hit badly due to this war.
As all the major powers like the US, Russia, and China have strategic interests in the Middle Eastern region, this war has significant impact on the balance of power there. US has security interests in the region while China has long term energy deals with the regional states. Russia considers Iran as a strategic partner. Since this war has been declared as the existential threat, the Iranian leadership may restart its uranium enrichment for the production of nuclear weapon as a future defensive strategy.
Furthermore, even some of the most important figures from the top leadership have been killed, US and Israel may not be able to dismantle Iran’s entrenched political and military institutions. This reality suggests that while military strikes may temporarily weaken Iran’s capabilities, they may not fundamentally alter the strategic dynamics of the region.
Every war has human and political consequences. The destruction of the civilian infrastructure by the missile and air strikes has to be rebuilt. The damages to schools and hospitals brought double jeopardy to the nations. Damages to the houses brough humanitarian crisis, and destruction of commercial areas leads to the unemployment and economic pressures on the society.
Many of the diplomatic missions evacuated their staff and families from the War zone. Similarly, many of the expats working in the region have left alongwith their families. As Dubai and Doha are major hubs of international air transit, closure of airspace has brought international travel at a halt. Thousands of passengers have been stranded at these airports.
Diplomatic channels to end the war seems minimal for the time being. As the US itself is involved in the war, chances for negotiations seems very difficult. Nevertheless, other powers like China, Russia, and many more have urged the adversaries to resolve the issue through peaceful means. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres also requested to resolve it through peaceful means. Besides these channels, regional and global actors will be involved to figure out a diplomatic solution to the conflict.
First step to achieve this objective will be the ceasefire. Nevertheless, keeping in view the level of distrust between Iran and Israel and US, this would be a difficult task. On the other hand, involvement of armed groups may undermine the diplomatic efforts to mitigate the tension. Lastly, the domestic pressures over all the three parties may be different which may not help in the immediate ceasefire.
The US-Israel attack on Iran is on the worst crisis so far in the twenty first century. These crises will not only have profound impacts on the region but at global level as well. This multi-dimensional conflict is not the outcome of recent developments in the region, but is rooted in decades of strategic rivalry, ideological conflict, and nuclear tensions. Disruption in the global oil supplies, along with the impacts in global production and supply chain have far reaching impacts on the strategic realignment in the region.
The US wants to control the Straits of Hormuz, Israel wants to materialize its dream of Greater Israel, Iran is fighting for its existence, Arab World is looking towards US for its help, China and Russia are providing diplomatic support to Iran, and Pakistan is trying to balance its strategic interests between Iran and Arab World at one side, and US and China on the other. US wants to finish its agenda as early as possible, while Iran wants to prolong the war. Whatever will be the future scenario, humanity will suffer.
The author is a Professor of International Relations at Bahria University, Islamabad, Pakistan.
