Kashaf Imran
One of the major factors behind China’s rapid growth in global politics is Beijing’s technological supremacy with regard to semiconductors, the AI aspect, and the accumulation of rare earth minerals. From a realist perspective, this rapid growth of China is seen as a threat to the USA, turning geopolitics into geotechnopolitics for the quest for power and dominance.
Under Xi Jinping’s “Chinese Dream,” initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and Made in China 2025, Beijing has been investing in R&D and in building home industries to become self-reliant, to reduce foreign dependence, and to build a completely Chinese-centric supply chain, particularly in the semiconductor industry. Semiconductors, being a vital component of technological manufacturing, form a $500 billion industry that is expected to double by 2030. Control over its supply chains means control over global power, and hence, the US and China are in an arms race for this dominance.
According ot Chris Miller, this race now extends beyond weapons like ships and missiles to the quality of Artificial Intelligence used in military systems, adding that historically powerful nations have always applied advanced computing to intelligence and defense. On Oct 17, 2025, Micron Technology announced its departure from the server-chips business in China in response to the imposed ban on supplying Chinese critical infrastructure. Moreover, Taiwan is central in this quest for control over semiconductors, especially with regard to China’s territorial claims over the self-ruled island.
According to Dmitri Alperovitch in World on the Brink, China might be ready to invade Taiwan by the end of the decade, and warns that such a conflict could push the world economy into a global depression, wiping out up to $10 trillion in economic value. Meanwhile, China’s technological self-reliance continues to grow, with a U.S. congressional investigation finding nearly US$40 billion invested in advanced chip-manufacturing equipment.
The technological rise of China manifests multiple realist principles, particularly about ongoing tariff wars with the USA, the existing superpower, under the illusion of Thucydides ‘ trap because of Beijing’s gradual rise. Firstly, it reflects a zero-sum game scenario. A situation in which the gain of one power is equal to the loss of another power, the resultant is no net gain.
This situation is known as a zero-sum game. The concept of zero-sum game aligns with the core concepts of realism, as one power’s loss is resultant in the other power’s gain, creating a situation of constant quest for competition. Realism emphasizes relative gains over absolute gains because the primary concern for a state is its national interest, which is in line with power and security.
China-U.S. relations have become increasingly tense since 2017 as trade frictions and technological contests between the two giants continue to ensue. With zero-sum thinking, the Trump administration has launched a tech war against China. Viewing China’s technological rise as a threat to its power and dominance, the U.S., caught in a Thucydides trap, imposed sanctions to limit China’s growth.
Secondly, it reflects the quest for global dominance. Control over advanced technology brings economic strength and military power, allowing a nation to lead the world. This technological cold war is separating the U.S. and Chinese tech sectors and could divide the world, as seen in the U.S.-led boycott of Chinese 5G. China’s weakening economy also affects the global market. What began as a deviation has now become the new normal, with digital competition shaping global politics and economics. Leadership today depends on controlling digital markets and technological power as key sources of global influence.
Thirdly, it manifests a pertinent realist maxim, i.e., power is a necessary tool for survival in an anarchic world. To hold power, a nation must dominate economically, militarily, and now technologically in the digital age. Technological dominance has become vital for maintaining hegemony. In today’s AI-driven era, where Artificial Intelligence fuels economic and military strength, staying technologically advanced is crucial for survival and continued power.
Hence, today, the idea of a “strategic resource” has expanded, changing how technological aspects of economic warfare are carried out. The focus has shifted from restricting technologies to preventing China’s growth in high-tech trade and investment, making market competition a new arena for geopolitical rivalry and structural power.
Lastly, China’s tech rise reflects the thesis of Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman’s concept of weaponized interdependence. According to Farrell and Newman, weaponized interdependence is “a condition under which an actor can exploit its position in an embedded network to gain a bargaining advantage over others in a contained system”.
This concept is extensively explored in their book, ’The Uses and Abuses of Weaponized Interdependence,’ where they delve into the strategic use of global economic networks for statecraft and coercion. The authors argue that the interconnected nature of globalization, commonly perceived as mutually beneficial, can be strategically manipulated by powerful states to exert influence and pressure. This concept, being applied to the US-China rivalry, underscores that both the US and China can use the fact that they are important to the international economic system to reap benefits.
The author is a geopolitical analyst from Pakistan with expertise in South Asian studies, emerging security trends, counterterrorism with interdisciplinary approach at intersection of psychology, security studies and political science.