Ali Hamza
Modern warfare no longer relies mainly on traditional tools and tactics. It increasingly harnesses advanced technologies and new methods. Across the centuries, states have adapted their security strategies in response to evolving threats. For example, gunpowder reshaped melee combat, industrialization enabled total war and nuclear weapons brought deterrence through fear of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD).
In the present era, conflict is increasingly characterized by asymmetric and hybrid forms of warfare. Hybrid warfare is defined as a strategic blend of conventional military force and covert, non-military tactics such as cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, economic pressure and electoral interference. Hybrid tactics are designed to destabilize an adversary while remaining below the threshold of open armed conflict.
Hybrid warfare is not a new phenomenon. However, advances in technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI) are rapidly transforming its strategies. The term AI was coined by Professor John McCarthy in 1955, who defined it as “the science and engineering of making intelligent machines”.
Today, AI has evolved from a simple support system into a key factor in the technological revolution. As the character of modern warfare is undergoing a significant transformation, AI acts as a potent force multiplier. The potential of AI not only enables states to execute military operations at a scale, speed, and sophistication previously unthinkable but also serves as a critical asset for advancing hybrid capabilities.
AI-enabled hybrid warfare is the integration of AI into the full spectrum of hybrid conflicts. This involves using AI’s capabilities in data processing, content generation, pattern recognition, and autonomous control to orchestrate and amplify coordinated attacks across multiple domains: the military, economic and cyber domains. In contemporary times, states increasingly employ hybrid tactics such as cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and AI-generated deepfakes to weaken adversaries and advance political, economic, and military objectives without engaging in full-scale war.
A key driver of this shift is cost-effectiveness. Cyber operations can disrupt critical infrastructure at a relatively low cost compared to destroying it physically. Similarly, information manipulation or disinformation can incite social instability without the expenditure associated with conventional military force.
Amid these evolving warfare dynamics, major powers such as the US, Russia, and China are investing heavily in AI-driven military innovation, and developing autonomous weapons, AI-powered cyber tools for espionage and disruption, algorithmic surveillance and offensive-defensive capabilities to gain a strategic advantage over adversaries. While the exact figures allocated by Russia and China specifically for AI military research remain classified, the US has reportedly earmarked USD 13.4 billion in its FY2026 defense budget for AI and autonomous systems, including cyber capabilities.
According to the Fortune Business Insights 2026 report, the global AI in military market is projected to exceed over USD 100 billion by 2034, growing at an annual rate of 20.7% from an estimated valuation of USD 22.41 billion in 2026.
While conventional military force remains important, it is increasingly complemented by hybrid strategies including cyber operations, economic coercion, legal and diplomatic pressure, psychological operations, and information manipulation to achieve political objectives. AI functions as a force multiplier across these domains, enhancing speed, precision, scalability, and real-time decision-making.
In hybrid warfare, the integration of AI in non-kinetic tactics such as cyberattacks, disinformation, and deepfakes is transforming the character of modern warfare techniques. Cyberattacks, in particular, have evolved from simple data breaches into sophisticated instruments for espionage, disruption, and even physical damage to critical infrastructure and military systems.
Notable examples include Stuxnet (2010), designed to target Iran’s nuclear centrifuge, and WannaCry (2017), a global ransomware attack that impacted more than 200,000 computers in over 150 countries. Similarly, the NotPetya (2017) ransomware attack which originated in Ukraine but spread globally, caused an estimated USD 10 billion in damages. These incidents show how cyber operations can achieve strategic goals without the use of military force.
According to the cost of data breach report (2025), the global average cost of a data breach had reached USD 4.44 million. Multiple sources predict that annual losses from cybercrime, data breaches, ransomware and other attacks could climb from USD 8.4 trillion in 2022 to nearly USD 24 trillion by 2027.
In this context, AI dramatically expands the scope and efficiency, making cyber operations faster, stealthier, and more adaptive. By injecting intelligence and autonomy into cyber tools, AI enables attacks that can learn, evade defenses, and exploit vulnerabilities in real time – capabilities beyond traditional malware. Unlike conventional defenses that rely on static rules and signatures, AI-driven cyberattacks can bypass existing security measures, increasing both their scale and lethality.
In hybrid warfare, adversaries target not only networks but also turn narratives into weapons. Disinformation has long been a frontline tool for influencing information spaces. From wartime posters to social media manipulation, the goal has remained the same: control the narrative, undermine opponents’ confidence and shatter the unity.
However, AI-powered deepfakes have dramatically accelerated this strategy. Using advanced generative adversarial networks (GANs), deepfakes create highly realistic but counterfeit audio, video, or images that masquerade as real people, making it nearly impossible for an average viewer to distinguish truth from fabrication.
For instance, the ongoing conflict in West Asia provides a recent example of how AI-generated content is widely used to shape strategic narratives. Following the reports of Iran’s missile strikes on the residence and office of Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, his status remained unclear for several days. It was only later that videos of Netanyahu surfaced, claiming that he was alive.
However, many media outlets and AI detection models identified those videos as advanced AI-generated content. In one such press conference video, Netanyahu’s hand appeared to have six fingers – an anomaly often associated with deepfakes. This highlights the increasingly sophisticated role of AI-driven deepfakes in modern warfare.
In May 2025, India’s unprovoked war against nuclear-armed Pakistan serves as an example of how narratives can be weaponized in modern warfare. Throughout the conflict, India employed disinformation campaigns through its media channels, broadcasting fabricated news that claimed the destruction of Karachi ports and the city of Lahore.
To support these false claims, Indian media outlets even aired clips of Israeli attacks on Gaza and scenes of destruction from Lebanon, falsely claiming as Indian attacks on Pakistan. However, these claims were later proven to be false.
Amid the rapidly evolving landscape of modern warfare, where states are racing to develop AI-driven hybrid capabilities, Pakistan faces significant security challenges, particularly from India. For years, Pakistan has been a target of Indian hybrid warfare, including state-sponsored terrorism, false flag operations, cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns. India’s investments in AI-enabled defense modernization, estimated at around USD 50 million annually, are likely to further intensify these challenges, heightening tensions in South Asia.
The evolving role of AI in modern warfare presents not only challenges but also strategic opportunities for developing a robust national security architecture. It is a powerful tool for defense, resilience, and countering the very threats it enables. AI-Enabled systems improve operational effectiveness by increasing the speed and precision of military operations.
These systems can analyze vast quantities of data and automate decision-making, providing a strategic advantage in detecting and responding to emerging threats. This technological advancement also extends to countering AI-driven cyberattacks, disinformation, and deepfakes through integrated mechanisms of detection, prevention, response, and resilience.
Pakistan decisively won the May 2025 Four-Day War imposed by India, using its capabilities in multi-domain operations, including AI applications like intelligence gathering, target identification, and electronic warfare. However, Pakistan should continue investing in these AI capabilities, in order to remain ahead of the curve.
The author is a Research Assistant at Center for International Strategic Studies Sindh (CISSS), area of research in Hybrid warfare.
