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The US Presidential elections are closely watched by governments, media, and people around the world. Their outcomes have a direct impact on the international system as a whole, America’s adversaries and competitors, and its allies and partners including India in South Asia. This year, global interest was particularly high due to the volatile political environment in the US, ongoing wars in Ukraine, and the Middle East, and rising geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific and the Indian Ocean region.
Donald Trump secured a second non-consecutive term as the 47th President of the United States, defeating Kamala Harris.
As a result of the US presidential elections held on November 5th, 2024, Republican Donald Trump was elected as the 47th President of the US. He secured a second, non-consecutive term in the White House and his victory over Democratic Kamala Harris is seen by his supporters as one of the greatest political comebacks in history. Now the focus will be on how he responds to challenges, both domestic and global.
At domestic level, he promised to tackle issues like immigration and inflation. While at the global level, he outlined his grand foreign policy aims which include asserting dominance over China, bringing peace to the Middle East, and ending Russia’s war against Ukraine as soon as he holds office. Achieving these goals require significant resources, and political and diplomatic efforts. It will take time and dedication to accomplish them. Moreover, it is important to highlight that competition with China is one area where there is bipartisan consensus in the US.
As both Democratic and Republican members of Congress seem to agree that Beijing is Washington’s foremost geo-political and economic competitor. Therefore, rarely it happens that we do expect continuity in foreign policy in the upcoming administration under Trump. When Biden assumed the presidency back in 2021, he prioritized strengthening the already existing international partnerships and alliances, particularly in Europe and the Asia-Pacific.
He tried to establish and strengthen intra-allies and partners’ strategic cooperation in order to out-source the resources in the US-China competition and achieve an asymmetric edge. The idea behind this effort was to forge a unified response to China’s expanding influence and power.
In order to counterbalance China Biden administration had reenergized Quad and formed AUKUS a strategic defense partnership comprising the UK, the US, and Australia. Under Biden’s presidency, the Quad was upgraded to a leader-level summit and a new working group structure to facilitate practical cooperation on issues of shared interests between like-minded democracies: the US, India, Japan, and Australia. The Quad partnership’s importance has increased manifold due to the shifting balance of power, changing global financial conditions, and emerging security concerns.
Trump’s administration is expected to shift focus back to “America First” policies, potentially reversing Biden’s multilateral efforts.
The Quad fits nicely for the US strategy to establish a democratic arc throughout the Asia-Pacific, to safeguard the critical water routes in the Asia-Pacific and the Indian Ocean region, and to safeguard the US construct rules-based order. During his tenure, Biden has participated in six Quad Summits including two virtual summits. The most recent farewell summit took place in Biden’s hometown of Wilmington, Delaware.
Where he was heard saying “China continues to behave aggressively, testing us all across the region, and it’s true in the South China Sea, the East China Sea, South China, South Asia and the Taiwan [Strait]”. This statement highlights the Biden administration’s concerns over China’s assertive actions and reinforced the US focus on countering Beijing’s influence across these critical regions. It also aligns with broader US aspirations to maintain its position as a major global power while protecting its national security interests vis-à-vis China.
However, Trump’s return to office signals that he will introduce significant changes to both domestic and international policy. There are concerns that Trump might reverse Biden’s multilateral efforts as he remains focused on his signature “America First” foreign policy approach. This isolationist and transactional approach contrasts sharply with Biden’s emphasis on strengthening the already existing global partnerships and alliances through international institutions.
As a result, there is a sense of uncertainty and unpredictability surrounding Trump’s return to power. However, despite this ambiguity, it is likely that he will double down on his tough stance towards China. While Trump’s “America First” approach focuses on economic pressure, it involves a mix of tariffs and sanctions. It remains uncertain whether he will also use strategic forum like the Quad to counterbalance China’s growing influence.
But if he decides to do that, India will be a key option. The US aims to utilize India as a strategic bulwark against China’s economic and military power. There has been a consistent willingness and desire to expand ties and cooperation with India from the Clinton to the Biden administration. It is expected that Trump will maintain close cooperation with India as well. Moreover, his cabinet picks, many of whom have pro-India leanings and a strong anti-China stance, will likely influence this approach. Moreover, it seems like India is already gaining a lot from the ongoing US-China competition.
Bipartisan consensus exists on countering China’s influence, indicating continuity in US strategy towards Beijing.
First, through its partnership with Quad members (the US, Japan, and Australia), it has secured access to advanced defense technologies, intelligence-sharing procedures, and joint military exercises. This close cooperation has strengthened India’s defense capabilities and promotes interoperability with regional and global partners.
In addition to that, it allowed New-Delhi to secure its security and economic goals in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) by investing in its naval fleet and sea-based deterrents. Second, the partnership with the US goes beyond buying American weapons. It includes technology transfer, co-production, and joint research and development. Third, India with global ambitions tries to use these initiatives to strengthen its strategic standing. By aligning with the US-led West, it has leveraged mutual interests, especially against China without taking on major responsibilities in return.
Fourth, the US side has recognized India as a “net security provider” in the so-called Indo-Pacific strategy. It allows India to gain in two ways. One, it further solidifies India’s regional influence. Two, India uses this strategic cooperation as an opportunity to acquire niche technologies, receive diplomatic support from Western capitals, exemptions from sanctions, backing for its permanent seat in the UNSC, and participate as a guest state at G-7 meetings. Apart from that, US-China competition is likely to intensify under the Trump administration. India will continue to be the focus of the US strategy.
The US is expected to invest more in its partnership with India. Increased US investment in India will impact regional players like China and Pakistan. From the Chinese perspective, the Quad as a strategic alliance can encircle and restrain its power in the Asia-Pacific region. Moreover, Chinese concerns stem from the possibility that control or restrictions of key marine routes by the Quad would jeopardize China’s economic and security well-being.
India is poised to play a crucial role in US strategy against China, leveraging partnerships for defense and technology.
According to the Chinese perspective, Quad promotes bloc hostility, inciting unrest among countries in the region, engaging in hegemonic actions, and perpetuating the Cold War mentality. Pakistan is also concerned about the weaponization of Quad against it along with China. Pakistan takes Quad as a major security threat to its interests aligned with the Indian Ocean Region. Therefore, if the Quad continues on its current path, it could lead to regional polarization, fueling an arms race, and exacerbating security dilemmas.
The author is currently working as a Research Associate at Strategic Vision Institute (SVI), Islamabad.
