Astro-politics and Conflicts in Gray Zone

Naseem Sabzal

Since the first object was sent into space, humans flew over those edges that separated the earth from boundaries and imaginations where ancient people could only look. On October 4, 1957, Sputnik-1 made its maiden flight into lower Earth orbit and the Soviet Union recorded its name as the first nation to have the privilege of waving its flag in Space.

The US Space Force marks the shift from geopolitics to Astropolitics, turning space into the next battlefield.

The race to wander in the gray zone between Earth and Outer Space was also part of the arms race during the Cold War, but neither the US nor the Soviet was sure why they wanted to fly in a cold, empty and uninhabited region apart from psychological and ideological supremacy on its adversary. But now more than 80 countries are running active space programs and this time the race is not only about dominating the minds of adversaries,  but the race to populate low earth orbit with communication, spying, remote sensing, navigation satellites and colonize celestial bodies Mars and Moon for martian and lunar resources. In recent years’ military activities in the gray zone and outer space have advanced.

The establishment of US space force (USSF), development of Anti Satellite Weapons (ASAT), cyber-attacks on satellites have shifted the discourse of peaceful use of space and this is all about sphere of influence in space. The strategic edge in space is driving countries to drag conflicts into space and turn the gray zone (LEO) Low-Earth orbit into a battlefield in future and finally mark the era of Astropolitics.

The US, China and Russia are leading countries in space followed by India, Japan and the European Space Agency. The implications of power politics and geopolitical confrontations on earth can be seen in space. The US announced its Space Force (USSF) in 2019 to protect Its interests in space and become a space power. The USSF became the first army to operate outside earth which raised concerns on the future of the gray zone, is there a need for an army in space where humans cannot mobilize, nor do terrorists can threaten our peace.

As Tim Marshall says, in his book, ‘The Future of Geography’ “this is the era of Astropolitics”. This is the final front of confrontation and geopolitics will be taken over by Astropolitics. The formation of USSF is just a sign we are actually entering into this era. where countries will be flexing their muscles to dominate the limitless region and it gives much more context of placing weapons in space without weapons no army can operate and without adversaries no army can exist and space race is turning out to be space arms race.

The course of Astropolitical events can be seen with the development of the ASAT by the US, China, Russia and India. It has revolutionized the nature of warfare on earth and space. Cyber-attacks in the 21st century play a crucial role in taking down opponents by cutting off access to communication and navigation satellites.

Anti-Satellite Weapons (ASATs) pose a major threat to global security, making Low Earth Orbit a potential war zone.

From locating enemies to launching missiles the satellites provide pinpoint accuracy. They are soldiers in the dark in space away from our reach. But ASAT is a game changer. Satellites flying above the Karman line are not safe. They can be taken down and sometimes we cannot even find out who shot down the satellite due to complexities in the tracking system, jamming and blinding of satellites with non-kinetic ASATs

Around 9822 active and 2770 inactive satellites are orbiting in low earth orbit which is inarguably the gray zone between the Earth and outer space. Satellite destruction and debris in space has become a major threat for those satellites which are indispensable for navigation, communication and weather forecast. Thousands of debris freely moving in space and now ASATs are big questions. Is confrontation in Space a worthwhile idea?

Apparently, it is not because space is very vulnerable to such hostile military activities. Though Outer space Treaty of 1967  restricts countries from placing or testing nuclear weapons in this region and ensures use of celestial bodies for peaceful purposes but placing or testing of conventional weapons or ASATs is a big loophole which is exploited  by countries leading in space activities and this seems to be the rationale of power show and political confrontation on earth between US, Russia, China and India

The idea of turning space race into space arms race will have its far reaching consequences. This is a large enough area to roam freely, quite enough to pave the ways for setting humans on Mars or Moon in future. This only seems possible if the way to space is clear without weapons or hostile environment. The technological advancement and geopolitics on earth is posing a threat to the peaceful environment of space.

Despite the Outer Space Treaty, nations exploit loopholes to militarize space, risking catastrophic consequences.

The outdated space treaties need to be renegotiated with current challenges and a common understanding for space exploration is matter of time for global peace and cooperation in space activities while the subject of treaties also need to be extended to private corporation leading in space which must have check on their activities to avoid polluting space with countless satellites or unregulated activities.

The author is a Research Assistant at Balochistan Think Tank Network (BTTN), Quetta. He can be reached at Naseem.mastoi@bttn.org