China’s Resilient Military Modernization

Humaira Ali

The recent report by the Pentagon regarding China’s nuclear arsenal and the continued growth of its armed forces, despite internal anticorruption investigations, offers a critical moment to reflect on the trajectory of Chinese military modernization and its implications for global security. China’s ability to expand its nuclear capabilities amid significant disruptions within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) underscores the resilience of its defense strategy and the centrality of military strength in achieving its broader geopolitical ambitions.

China’s nuclear arsenal is expanding rapidly, both in size and sophistication, altering the balance of global security.

Over the past decade, China’s military developments have been marked by rapid advancements, including the modernization of its nuclear forces. The Pentagon’s assessment that China’s nuclear arsenal is growing robustly aligns with broader concerns about its shift from a minimal deterrence posture toward a more assertive nuclear strategy.

This transformation includes the development of more sophisticated delivery systems, such as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), hypersonic glide vehicles, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. These advancements signal not just a quantitative increase in China’s nuclear stockpile but also a qualitative improvement in its capabilities, making it a formidable competitor in the global arms race.

What makes this development particularly striking is that it has occurred alongside a series of anticorruption investigations targeting the highest echelons of the PLA. These investigations, part of President Xi Jinping’s broader campaign to consolidate power and root out corruption, have reportedly unsettled the military leadership.

Yet, the ongoing modernization of China’s armed forces suggests that these internal disruptions have had minimal impact on the country’s defense objectives. This resilience speaks to the institutional strength of the PLA and the strategic prioritization of military development within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

China’s military ambitions are deeply intertwined with its vision of achieving great-power status. The expansion of its nuclear arsenal serves not only as a deterrent against potential adversaries but also as a tool for asserting dominance in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.

This development is particularly alarming for the United States and its allies, who view a more assertive China as a challenge to the existing rules-based international order. The Pentagon’s report, therefore, should be seen as a wake-up call for policymakers to reassess their strategies for managing the growing military and geopolitical influence of China.

Despite internal corruption probes in the PLA, China’s military modernization continues to progress unimpeded.

However, the implications of China’s nuclear growth are not confined to U.S.-China relations. The ripple effects are likely to be felt across Asia and beyond, potentially triggering a regional arms race. Neighboring countries such as India, already a nuclear power, may feel compelled to enhance their own capabilities in response.

Similarly, Japan and South Korea, though under the U.S. nuclear umbrella, might reconsider their reliance on extended deterrence given the shifting power dynamics. This could exacerbate regional tensions and complicate efforts to maintain stability in a region already fraught with disputes over territorial sovereignty and maritime boundaries.

The United States, for its part, must navigate this challenge with a combination of strategic deterrence and diplomatic engagement. While bolstering its own military capabilities and reaffirming commitments to allies are essential, equally important is the need to maintain open lines of communication with Beijing.

Arms control agreements, confidence-building measures, and dialogue on strategic stability are crucial components of any comprehensive strategy to address the risks associated with China’s growing nuclear arsenal. Unfortunately, such measures have been undermined in recent years by rising mistrust and geopolitical rivalries.

At the same time, it is worth noting that the Pentagon’s emphasis on China’s nuclear growth could also serve as a reminder of the importance of global nonproliferation efforts. The fragility of the current arms control architecture, as evidenced by the breakdown of key treaties like the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, underscores the urgent need for renewed international cooperation to prevent an unbridled arms race.

China’s rise as a nuclear power adds complexity to this challenge, particularly given its nonparticipation in existing arms control frameworks like New START. Encouraging China to engage in multilateral arms control discussions should be a priority for the international community.

The growth of China’s nuclear capabilities could spark a regional arms race, particularly in Asia.

The Pentagon’s report raises profound questions about the future of global security. China’s ability to advance its military capabilities despite internal challenges highlights the seriousness with which it approaches its long-term strategic goals. For the United States and its allies, this serves as a stark reminder of the need for vigilance, adaptability, and sustained engagement to address the evolving security landscape.

The author is a graduate of International Relations and an Islamabad-based freelancer writer.