CPEC & Security Dilemma

Maqsood Hussain

Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan are two regions of immense strategic importance for Pakistan, facing an evolving spectrum of challenges where each challenge is a facet of multifaceted 5^th generation warfare (5GW). Unlike traditional warfare, 5GW emphasizes on non-kinetic operations like psychological operations (PsyOps), disinformation, and subversion over open conventional kinetic engagements. At the heart of this warfare is the effort to undermine Pakistan’s territorial integrity and economic stability, with Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan serving as the frontline of these efforts.

This new form of conflict is particularly relevant for these regions, given their critical role in international initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and their vulnerability to external meddling, especially by India. Demystifying the Indian conspiracy against CPEC project remains a critical imperative for the state of Pakistan.

5GW was initiated to disrupt and fail the CPEC project which is an amalgamation of various energy and infrastructure projects, initiated in 2013 with Chinese investment. CPEC aims to link Gwadar Port in Pakistan with Xiangjiang China.

At the heart of this warfare is the effort to undermine Pakistan’s territorial integrity and economic stability, with Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan serving as the frontline of these efforts.

Gilgit-Baltistan, located in the northernmost part of Pakistan, holds strategic value due to its proximity to China and its pivotal role in the CPEC, part of the broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This region not only serves as a crucial overland link between Pakistan and China, reducing the latter’s dependence on sea routes but also as an area of immense natural beauty and potential. However, its significance has also made it a target for external powers, particularly India, which has long contested Pakistan’s control over the region as part of the Kashmir dispute. India’s efforts to stoke unrest in Gilgit-Baltistan are part of its 5GW against Pakistan where disinformation and the manipulation of ethnic and sectarian fault lines is being used to destabilize a region without direct military confrontation.

India, during the last 15 years, cultivated a global fake media outlets and social platforms network to spread narratives that question Pakistan’s governance in Gilgit-Baltistan, often portraying it as a disputed territory where the local population is disenfranchised. These disinformation campaigns and psyops have been linked to efforts by Indian intelligence agencies to fuel separatist sentiments in the region. Undermining Pakistan’s control, and sabotaging CPEC, which passes through Gilgit-Baltistan are obvious goals of this Indian stratagem.

Indian efforts to derail CPEC projects in Gilgit-Baltistan are seen as part of a broader strategy to isolate Pakistan economically and diplomatically. India has expressed its concerns about the plans proposed by China and Pakistan. An Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson responded, to a media query about the issue, by stating that “such actions by any party directly infringe on India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” The spokesperson added that “India firmly and consistently opposes projects in the so-called CPEC which are in Indian territory under illegal occupation of Pakistan.”

India, during the last 15 years, cultivated a global fake media outlets and social platforms network to spread narratives that question Pakistan’s governance in Gilgit-Baltistan, often portraying it as a disputed territory where the local population is disenfranchised.

India has called such activities “inherently illegal, illegitimate, and unacceptable”. Indian Foreign Secretary, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said, “We expect they respect other people’s sovereignty,” he said further “The CPEC passes through a territory that we see as our territory.” Such blatant statements by top Indian diplomats leave no ambiguity about Indian designs about Pakistan in general and CPEC in particular.

Similarly, Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest province, has long been a site of insurgency and terrorism. This province is rich in natural resources, including gas and minerals, and serves as the terminal point of CPEC at Gwadar, a key port for international trade. However, Balochistan’s importance has also made it a pivot for foreign interference with domestic insurgents and international actors both fuelling the unrest. The insurgency in Balochistan, driven by nationalist groups such as the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), has increasingly adopted 5GW tactics, blending traditional insurgency methods with psychological operations and cyber-attacks. As highlighted by “Foreign Policy” Journal, India and Afghanistan have provided support to Baloch separatists, using the insurgency as a tool to destabilize Pakistan.

Moreover, terrorism in Balochistan has taken on an international dimension with the rise of extremist groups like ISKP, which have gained a foothold in the region. ISKP’s presence adds complexity to the security situation in Balochistan as it brings together a mix of local grievances and international jihadist ambitions. Intelligence reports suggest that foreign intelligence agencies, particularly India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) have links with BLA factions, using them to target CPEC projects and create instability in the province. This form of hybrid warfare, where insurgent and extremist groups are used as proxies for foreign powers, reflects the complex dynamics of 5GW in the region.

CPEC, as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, has become a symbol of both opportunity and conflict for Pakistan. The multi-billion-dollar project promises to transform Pakistan’s infrastructure and economy, but it has also attracted the ire of regional and global powers, particularly India. India views CPEC as a direct threat to its own strategic interests, particularly given the corridor’s passage through Gilgit-Baltistan, which it claims as part of its territory. India’s response to CPEC has been multifaceted, including diplomatic efforts to oppose the project on international forums and covert actions aimed at disrupting its progress. In Foreign Policy Journal, analysts have noted that India’s strategic goal is to create enough instability in both Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan to make CPEC untenable, thereby isolating Pakistan from its economic lifeline.

India’s antagonism towards CPEC is also intertwined with its broader geopolitical competition with China. New Delhi has expressed concerns that CPEC, and by extension the BRI, and cultivated an image that it is a tool for Chinese dominance in South Asia. However, India’s opposition to CPEC goes beyond diplomatic posturing. As noted in intelligence reports, India has been involved in funding and supporting groups that carry out attacks on CPEC infrastructure in both Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan. These actions are part of a broader hybrid warfare strategy, where India seeks to weaken Pakistan from within by exploiting internal divisions and insurgencies.

India’s antagonism towards CPEC is also intertwined with its broader geopolitical competition with China.

India’s approach towards Pakistan, particularly in the context of 5GW, reflects a shift from conventional military engagements to a more covert and multidimensional strategy. This includes the use of cyber warfare, disinformation, and economic sabotage. India’s lobbying efforts to isolate Pakistan on international platforms, such as the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), are part of this broader strategy. By portraying Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism, India seeks to limit Pakistan’s access to international financial markets and investments, making it harder for Islamabad to stabilize its economy or develop critical infrastructure projects like CPEC.

Additionally, India has increasingly relied on cyber-attacks and misinformation campaigns to undermine Pakistan’s institutions. As detailed in Foreign Policy Journal, Indian cyber units have launched multiple disinformation campaigns targeting Pakistan’s government, military, and civil society. These campaigns aim to create distrust within Pakistan’s institutions and erode public confidence in the state’s ability to govern. Cyber-attacks, coupled with traditional espionage and support for insurgent groups, form the core of India’s 5GW strategy against Pakistan.

The ongoing issues Pakistan faces in Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan are emblematic of the broader global shift towards Fifth Generation Warfare. These regions, critical for Pakistan’s strategic and economic future, are also prime targets for adversarial powers seeking to destabilize the country. The ongoing insurgencies, foreign-backed terrorism, and relentless efforts to sabotage CPEC reflect the great geopolitical environment in which Pakistan operates. To resolve these challenges, Pakistan must adopt a comprehensive strategy that combines military, diplomatic, and cyber capabilities.

By portraying Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism, India seeks to limit Pakistan’s access to international financial markets and investments, making it harder for Islamabad to stabilize its economy or develop critical infrastructure projects like CPEC.

  The inclusive message for youth is that they have role and responsibilities in shaping the narrative and strategies of contemporary conflicts. Their engagement in digital platforms equips them with the tools to counter disinformation and propaganda effectively. By leveraging social media, they can foster resilience and unity against ideological extremism and foreign interference. Additionally, their technological proficiency allows them to innovate in cybersecurity and intelligence, enhancing national security measures. As active participants in public discourse, young Pakistanis also invigorate to shaping policy responses and societal attitudes towards modern conflicts, thus reinforcing the nation’s defense against evolving threats. They must be candid to this nation.

The author is a student at Quaid e Azam University Islamabad with 8 years of experience of writing in geopolitics and security matters.