The Impact of Ukrainian Incursion of Russian Kursk Region

Muhammad Mudassir

Introduction:

Since February 2022 Russia and Ukraine have engaged in a conflict that resulted in a huge loss of resources and manpower with more than 60,000 Russians and 70,000 Ukrainians dead but both sides hide the real numbers of casualties. More significantly the annexation of more than 26% of the Ukrainian territory by Russia since 2022. But recently the war took a new turn with the August 6 surprise Ukrainian incursion into the Russian Kursk region bordering Ukraine’s Sumy region (Sumy Oblast). The surprise incursion with at least two brigades’ the 82^nd Mechanized Brigade and 82^nd Air Assault Brigade quickly occupied various settlements in the Kursk region in a few days. According to President Zelensky Ukraine has occupied nearly 90 settlements in the Kursk. As the war widened, the Russian authorities declared a state of emergency in the Kursk and Belgorod regions. President Putin called the incursion a serious provocation and promised a response. How will it impact the upcoming peace summit in Switzerland? President Zelensky claimed that Russia would be present in the upcoming plan but how despite invading their territory? How will it impact the eastern Ukrainian frontline?

According to President Zelensky Ukraine has occupied nearly 90 settlements in the Kursk. As the war widened, the Russian authorities declared a state of emergency in the Kursk and Belgorod regions.

Impact on Peace Plan and Eastern Ukrainian Frontline

Before the incursion, President Zelensky said that “Russia should be present at the next peace summit in Switzerland”, and many were optimistic that peace in Ukraine was near after the Hungarian PM Orban visited Moscow, Kyiv, and Beijing. President Putin and Prime Minister Orban met in the Kremlin on July 5, and their negotiation was dominated by Ukraine’s peace plan. Both leaders discussed the possible solutions and Mr. Putin argued that we have our detailed plan which he highlighted during his recent meeting with senior representatives of the Russian Federation’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and putting that plan in action will end the conflict permanently as he didn’t want temporary ceasefire because it will provide time for Ukraine to reassemble. Mr. Putin’s proposed plan, includes Ukraine removing its forces from four regions (Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson) and neutrality of Ukraine. The Hungarian prime minister argued that he believed in direct communication with parties to achieve peace and he is not like the rest of Europe. Not just Orban China also presented a detailed peace plan that has the support of over 110 countries including Russia and Hungary. The Chinese foreign ministry in 2023 has announced a detailed peace plan but due to the interest of Western leaders, they didn’t endorse the plan because it would further boost China’s influence. It was all before the surprise incursion, now the situation has further deteriorated.

The Chinese foreign ministry in 2023 has announced a detailed peace plan but due to the interest of Western leaders, they didn’t endorse the plan because it would further boost China’s influence.

Peace Plan

The August 6 surprise Ukrainian incursion not only surprised Russia but also its allies. The Ukraine initially didn’t react but later on, they claimed that now the war had reached the enemy territory. While commenting on the purpose of controlling Russian territory captured as a result of the incursion Ukrainian President Zelensky argued that we don’t want to hold the territory permanently, but we want to establish a buffer zone. The incursion gravely affected the peace negotiations. Russian President Vladimir Putin initially in a statement said how we negotiate and on which topic we should negotiate with Ukraine as they invaded our territory, killed civilians, and targeted a nuclear power plant. The Kursk nuclear power plant was targeted by a Ukrainian drone and a similar incident had occurred in the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, but Russia and Ukraine accused each other of the attack.

Figure 1 source: Institute for the Study of War

Figure 2 Source; Institute for the study of war (ISW)

He also said that the incursion aims to improve the Ukrainian position ahead of possible talks. The statements before and after the incursion are distinct. The statement indicated that the Russian President who was willing to negotiate now shifted from its stance and promised response. The main reason was that Mr. Putin would not negotiate for its territory because Russia is a huge military power the first humiliation, they faced was the failure to notice the Ukrainian military buildup now if they sit on the negotiation table it will be another humiliation. Recently Putin again hinted at possible peace talks but if only, China, Brazil, or India mediates. The statement came after Modi visited Kyiv last week and a couple of days after Russia bombed the Ukrainian cities of Lviv and Poltava. He again talks about peace talks and the reason could be the recent heavy bombardment of Ukraine and quick gains in the Donbass region. The conditions he set now raise questions about Russian participation in the Western-backed Swiss summit. Well, Mr. Putin didn’t trust the West and sought mediation from China, Brazil, or India, Russia’s close allies, in peace talks. Now, if we look at the statements and conditions Mr. Putin has set for peace talks then there is less probability of Russian participation in the upcoming Swiss summit.

The first humiliation, they faced was the failure to notice the Ukrainian military buildup now if they sit on the negotiation table it will be another humiliation

Eastern Ukraine Frontline:

Furthermore, many were arguing that the incursion would shift the Russian attention from its summer offensive in Eastern Ukraine. As a result Eastern Ukrainian frontline would become weak and Russia would reinforce trained troops to Kursk but that didn’t happen and Russia despite Ukrainian troops present on its territory accelerated its already continued advance in Eastern Ukraine and the city of Pokrovsk which is a major supply line now evacuated by Ukraine as Russian troops are at the outskirts of the city and Toretsk a strategic city where Russian troops are entering from all sides. The loss of Pokrovsk will badly hurt the supply line of Ukrainian troops fighting on the Eastern front. The incursion weakened the Ukrainian position in Donetsk as well-trained troops and advanced weaponry were deployed to Kursk as a result Russia continued its advance. It was the biggest gamble Ukraine had ever played since the start of the war. Russia’s rapid advance on the Eastern border will pressure Ukraine to divert and reinforce their troops to the eastern frontline as they are short by manpower and on the other hand, Russia has huge manpower. Russia is now advancing in eastern Ukraine as well in Kursk (see Figures 1 and 2).

Moreover, in the long term, the Ukraine incursion could have a devastating impact because Ukraine is heavily dependent on US military and economic assistance. Ukraine should need to reconsider its goals as well since if Donald Trump elected US President in the upcoming US election who has made it clear that he would halt the aid and end the Russia-Ukrainian conflict if elected US President. He has even called Zelensky a brilliant salesman who gets billions of dollars of US taxpayers’ money from the US government whenever he visits.  

Conclusion:

The August 6 incursion of Russian region of Kursk by Ukraine deteriorated the situation, extinguishing any immediate prospects for peace. The situation on the battlefield is even worse in Kursk as well as on the Eastern front. In Kursk, Ukraine is trying to hold on as well as capture as much territory as they can and on the other hand on the eastern front, Russia is advancing faster than before the incursion. Furthermore, the nuclear power plant security is at risk as the largest nuclear power plant in Europe Zaporizhzhia and Kursk nuclear power plants were hit by a drone strike and it also put the security of the nuclear power plants at risk.  The dynamics of the conflict could shift significantly if Western military aid were to cease, a scenario that may arise due to the upcoming U.S. elections, particularly if Donald Trump is elected as president.

Author is student of Defense and Strategic Studies at Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.