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The geopolitical chessboard is now on the edge due to Trump’s isolationist policies and Putin’s opportunistic maneuvers. Both tested Europe’s nerves regarding NATO’s commitment based on recent developments and projections. North Atlantic Treaty Organization NATO, a military alliance that was founded in 1949 for mutual defense. NATO believes in solidarity amongst member nations with one another, as Article 5 clearly states that an attack against one is an attack against all.
The alliance has 32 members as of now, with other recent members such as Finland and Sweden, inspired by Russia’s actions in Ukraine. The defense spending target of 2 percent of GDP, imposed in 2014, has been increasingly complied with, with 23 members paying full compliance by 2024, according to How much do Nato members spend on defence? – BBC News. But Trump’s re-election and Russia’s continued aggression have cranked up pressures on the alliance.
Trump’s push for 5% defense spending and reduced commitment to NATO has triggered a European security recalibration.
America’s first policy of Trump seems everywhere in its latest administration’s policies, which emphasize national interests over international commitments, as detailed in Trump turns toward Russia, breaking with decades of US policy – NBC News. His administration has demanded a significant escalation from the current 2% target for defense spending to 5% of GDP from NATO members, as reported in Trump’s Five Percent Doctrine and NATO Defense Spending | PIIE. This demand, seen as absurd by many NATO members, is noted in How much do NATO members spend on defence as threat perceptions rise? | Euronews, with projections suggesting it could take a decade to reach 5% at current growth rates, which is likely unfeasible for most countries.
As seen in Trump’s Plan for NATO Is Emerging – POLITICO Trump’s criticisms of NATO, including threats to withdraw support if allies don’t meet spending targets, have been consistent. European leaders show concerns regarding his actions, such as potential troop withdrawals and reduced participation in joint exercises. French President Emmanuel Macron is calling for greater European defense autonomy, as mentioned in Europe’s New Reality: Trump May Not Quit NATO, but He’s Already Undercutting It – The New York Times. A senior German official at the Munich Security Conference in February 2025 stated, “We have to assume not,” regarding US defense commitments, which has led to a crisis of confidence.
Putin’s foreign policy aims to regain its previous USSR hegemony by exploiting Western divisions, particularly in the context of NATO, as analyzed in NATO-Russia dynamics: Prospects for reconstitution of Russian military power – Atlantic Council. Recent intelligence reports from Germany, dated April 2, 2025, allege that Russia is planning to increase its armed forces to 1.5 million by 2026, preparing for a major war with NATO. It increased its military spending, reaching €120 billion in 2025, more than 6% of GDP, as per Germany’s intel: Russia preparing for major war with NATO – The Jerusalem Post. Russian forces are on full combat alert near the Baltic states, which is seen as a direct response to NATO’s eastern expansion, as noted in the same report.
As reported in Russia’s Interference Freezes NATO Exercise – CEPA Specific actions include interference in NATO exercises, such as the postponement of Dacian Spring 2025 in Romania due to Russian meddling. It intended to demonstrate NATO’s ability to scale up to brigade level This exercise was delayed due to electoral interference in Romania, highlighting Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics. Moreover, tensions have also risen, and trust has been undermined due to Russia’s military production surpassing current needs for the Ukraine war. Its projections are over 1,000 tanks annually by 2025-26, as per the Atlantic Council report.
Russia is preparing for large-scale conflict with NATO, increasing military alertness and exploiting alliance divisions.
Trump’s isolationist policies and Putin’s opportunistic approaches drive Europe to increase its defense spending and cooperation. Till 2024, 23 out of 32 NATO members has met the criteria of 2% GDP defence spending, with Poland leading at 4.1%, followed by Estonia at 3.4%, as per How much do Nato members spend on defence? – BBC News. As detailed in NATO adjusts to a world not at war, but not at peace | The American Legion Poland’s military expansion is notable, aiming for 500,000 troops and investing over 4% of GDP, including acquiring F-35s and K2 tanks. This paints a broader image: by 2025, the European Commission is calling for €800 billion in new defense spending, as mentioned in NATO secretary-general tells Trump he’s motivating alliance members to spend more on defense | AP News.
To enhance military mobility and cyber defense, initiatives like Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) and the European Defence Fund are strengthening cooperation. Although, projects like Nord Stream 2 are complicating unity due to energy dependencies on Russia. Internal divisions persist, with differing threat perceptions between Eastern and Western Europe, as noted in NATO – Topic: Relations with Ukraine.
Intelligence reports suggest Russia could attack NATO by 2030, but with potential earlier provocations, as warned in Russia Could Be Able to Attack NATO by 2030: German Intelligence – The Defense Post: So, Europe’s NATO commitment is being tested by these ongoing tensions. As per the Jerusalem Post report, specific incidents include increased Russian military activity near NATO borders, with air and naval units on full combat alert. As reported in Europe is preparing for possible war with Russia, without the US – ABC News, European countries, particularly Poland requiring military training for all adult males and Norway restoring old bunkers, Poland and the Baltic states, are on high alert.
A critical factor is also under consideration, which is regarding uncertainty about US support under Trump, with debates on whether he would honor Article 5 commitments, given his past rhetoric and pivot towards Russia, as seen in NATO states worry over Trump pivot to Russia – The Washington Post. As analyzed in Is NATO Ready for War? | CSIS A scenario has been established where Europe might need to rely more on its own resources and explore trade deals left, right, and center, potentially fragmenting responses due to internal disagreements.
Europe is responding with record-high defense budgets and joint initiatives amid rising uncertainty over U.S. support.
In the current scenario, due to Trump’s isolationist policies and Putin’s opportunistic actions Europe’s NATO commitment is under significant strain. As the continent navigates a critical juncture in transatlantic relations, these dual challenges necessitate Europe to bolster its defense capabilities and for the US to reaffirm its alliance commitments to ensure collective security against Russian threat.
The author Aamna Zaheer is an undergraduate student and research intern. Her expertise lies in analyzing how security issues influence foreign policy decision-making.
