Future Trajectory of Pakistan-Bangladesh Relations

Maryam Raashed

On the sidelines of the ongoing 79^th Session of the United Nations General Assembly, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, and the chief advisor of Bangladesh’s interim government Muhammad Yunus, held a meeting. During the meeting, an emphasis on the need to strengthen the bilateral ties was laid. Pakistan’s prime minister also invited Muhammad Yunus to visit Pakistan. Prior to this, when Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus had rose to power in Bangladesh, Yunus and Sharif had also held a telephonic conversation, during which a congratulatory note to Yunus was extended by Sharif, whereas he also praised Yunus’ contributions to the socio-economic development of Bangladesh. In addition to this, reports following Sheikh Hasina’s ouster have indicated that diplomatic channels between the two countries, which had largely remained dormant for around fifteen years of Sheikh Hasina’s government, are now re-opening, whereby meetings between Dhaka’s interim government and diplomats in Islamabad have started taking place. The recent engagements between Dhaka and Islamabad, reflect a noticeable shift in bilateral diplomatic dynamics, indicating the willingness of both sides to address the longstanding bilateral impasse. Within Islamabad, this is being perceived as an opportunity to reset bilateral ties, and has therefore rekindled a renewed optimism.

The recent engagements between Dhaka and Islamabad, reflect a noticeable shift in bilateral diplomatic dynamics, indicating the willingness of both sides to address the longstanding bilateral impasse.

Recent months have been eventful for Bangladesh, which has undergone a significant, as well as a sudden political transition, followed after nationwide students-led protests. While manifesting the deeply entrenched dissatisfaction of Bengalis for the Bangladesh Awami League Party-led Sheikh Hasina’s administration. The protests ultimately resulted into the collapse of the fifteen years long rule of Sheikh Hasina. As the protests unfolded, they exposed the deep-rooted alienation of Bengali society from the state, indicating a probable reconfiguration of state institutions, predominantly curated by the country’s youth. A similar trend is therefore expected to be noticed in Dhaka’s external affairs.

Of now, the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus as the chief advisor, formed after Sheikh Hasina’s resignation, is aiming to restore stability and prepare for new elections. This series of events has prompted mixed reactions from regional actors, particularly from Islamabad and New Delhi. While India has expressed its apprehensions regarding the new government, Pakistan has welcomed the developments, viewing them as an opportunity to reset bilateral relations. The speculations and estimates regarding the recent developments in Dhaka are not unfounded. Since the establishment of Muhammad Yunus’ interim government, Bangladesh has been demonstrating significant shifts in its foreign policy, which are suggestive of a potential re-imagination of the country’s foreign policy. Most prominently, for now, Dhaka appears to be moving away from its reliance on New Delhi, while seeking to recalibrate its diplomatic ties with Pakistan. However, it is to be noted that, for a larger part of history, bilateral ties between Pakistan and Bangladesh have characteristically remained a function of the larger regional geopolitical contestations.

Since the establishment of Muhammad Yunus’ interim government, Bangladesh has been demonstrating significant shifts in its foreign policy, which are suggestive of a potential re-imagination of the country’s foreign policy.

Despite a recent meeting between Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Bangladesh’s Foreign Affairs Advisor Touhid Hossain on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, it is expected that India-Bangladesh bilateral ties may face challenges in the coming days. Muhammad Yunus himself, has been a vocal critic of the Bangladesh-India bonhomie under Shaikh Hasina’s governments, Indian interference in the internal affairs of Bangladesh. In addition to this, anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh continues to remains high for now, which once again came to fore during the recent floods in the country. It can also be argued that as long as the revolutionary fervor persists, Dhaka may be unlikely to make any unpopular foreign policy decision vis-à-vis New Delhi. Recently, the Indian Deputy High Commissioner was also summoned by the interim government to lodge protest against Indian Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s remarks on Bengali immigrants in the state of Jharkhand. Furthermore, Sheikh Hasina’s exile in India may also continue to remain a major irritant. While Dhaka has formally requested New Delhi to extradite the ousted prime minister, who faces serious charges of murder, enforced disappearances, and genocide. New Delhi finds itself walking a tightrope. While a refusal to extradite Sheikh Hasina comes at the risk of further straining relations with Bangladesh, a compliance to the request shall undermine India’s diplomatic standing due to its abandonment of a long-standing ally.

It can also be argued that as long as the revolutionary fervor persists, Dhaka may be unlikely to make any unpopular foreign policy decision vis-à-vis New Delhi.

On the other side of the border, the full potential for a productive bilateral partnership in Pakistan-Bangladesh relations remains far from realised. Back in 2002, a bilateral free trade agreement was proposed, which was also further discussed at the 2004 South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation summit. However, the project failed to substantially take off. On-ground bilateral trade has decreased over the years, despite a considerable untapped trade potential. In this context, it can be argued that an efficient and effective groundwork comprising established frameworks for political and economic collaboration are not in place as such. This is not to suggest that bilateral mechanisms are entirely absent. For instance, the Joint Economic Commission serves as the apex forum for discussions on trade and commercial relations. However, this commission also became largely inactive during Sheikh Hasina’s administration, with its last meeting being held back in 2007. Nevertheless, there remains a lack of proper frameworks, therefore requires both, Pakistan and Bangladesh to meticulously establish and implement mechanisms that can effectively put life into a bilateral relationship that is long-lasting and sustainable.

Nevertheless, there remains a lack of proper frameworks, therefore requires both, Pakistan and Bangladesh to meticulously establish and implement mechanisms that can effectively put life into a bilateral relationship that is long-lasting and sustainable.

Because there remains uncertainty surrounding Yunus’ interim government, it could be argued that a clearer picture could better emerge after elections are convened, and an elected government is put into place. While the country’s powerful military has staunchly thrown his weight behind Yunus’ interim government, elections are expected to be delayed by up to a year or more. Major political parties, on the other side, have been demanding for a democratic transition to an elected government from the incumbent interim government. As the situation remains fluid, that Islamabad’s approach toward Bangladesh should not be merely personality-oriented, for it to be able to withstand a probable change of leadership in Dhaka. This reinstates the need to establish bilateral ties that are grounded in institutional mechanisms and sustainable frameworks that can endure political transitions, in order to prevent the risk of an immediate decoupling if the future government adopts a different foreign policy approach. It is also pertinent that Dhaka moves beyond viewing Pakistan-Bangladesh relations, exclusively in the regional geopolitical context, which has long impinged the foreign policies of both states. This would allow both countries to establish ties based on shared interests and long-term objectives rather than external geopolitical scenarios.

Maryam Raashed is a Research Associate at the Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad. She is currently pursuing her M. Phil. degree in International Relations from the School of Politics and International Relations (SPIR), Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad. Her research focuses on politics of the far-right, and foreign policy in South Asia. Her twitter handle is @maryam_raashed.