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India’s geopolitical considerations, specifically in the Asia-Pacific region, are shaping its defense export strategy. Its pursuit of enhancing self-reliance in defense, driven by initiatives like Atmanirbhar Bharat and “Make in India,” has propelled New Delhi toward a comprehensive strategy of indigenization and modernization of the Indian defense industry. Central to this transformation is the revitalization of its military-industrial complex. As a result, India has seen a sharp rise in the production of advanced, domestically manufactured defense equipment and technological innovation, significantly increasing its defense exports at both regional and global levels. This progress has elevated India into the ranks of the world’s top 25 arms exporters.
India has seen a sharp rise in the production of advanced, domestically manufactured defense equipment and technological innovation.
To increase its defense exports, India has actively sought strategic and defense partnerships with several states, including the United States, Russia, Australia, Israel, and France. These partnerships, focused on joint development, co-production, and technology transfer of defense equipment, have bolstered India’s defense capabilities by addressing its operational needs through selective and strategic imports. At the same time, with a targeted goal of achieving USD 5 billion in defense exports by 2025, India has increasingly prioritized arms exports, having already signed or announced potential defense and missile agreements with countries such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Armenia, Vietnam, Thailand, and the UAE.
However, while these developments bolster India’s military stature, they have also raised concerns in Islamabad, as Pakistan grapples with the strategic consequences of India’s growing defense profile. After the recent escalation-cum-retaliation mini war between India and Pakistan, no international sources have predicted that BrahMos sales would increase. However, Indian scholars have analyzed that BrahMos exports will exponentially increase. India’s deployment of BrahMos missiles in the recent Operation Sindoor also indicates that India has opted for a war-fighting doctrine under the nuclear threshold.
India’s Rise in the Global Defense Export Market
India’s coordinated internal and external policy initiatives, coupled with its defense sales strategy, are redefining its role in the global defense economy as it aspires to become a major manufacturing and export hub, evidenced by a tenfold surge in exports since 2017, reaching a record $2.76 billion in FY 2024-2025. Domestically, the Indian government has encouraged private sector participation by reserving 75 percent of the defense capital procurement budget for local industries. In FY 2024-25, the Indian Ministry of Defense signed a record 193 contracts, with 92 percent awarded to domestic firms. On the international front, India is expanding its Defense Line of Credit (LoC) program to boost exports and build buyer confidence by offering soft loans to friendly nations for the purchase of Indian-made defense equipment.
To stay competitive in the market, India has domestically resolved the issue with the liability law to facilitate international clients for nuclear deals and expanded its defense collection by including a wider range of defense products such as missiles, aircraft, naval vessels, aircrafts, helicopters, and electronic systems. Its key export products include Akash surface-to-surface air missile, BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, Dornier (Do-228) aircraft, and various naval vessels.
India’s deployment of BrahMos missiles in the recent Operation Sindoor also indicates that India has opted for a war-fighting doctrine under the nuclear threshold.
The Indian government is actively expanding its outreach to the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia by simplifying export regulations. Additionally, defense attaches have been deployed to African countries to facilitate arms exports. Given that the path of defense exports is more a delicate balancing act than a straightforward ascent, shaped by obstacles like international regulations, logistical issues, and regional political tensions, India is focusing on government-to-government frameworks. These frameworks not only streamline sales agreements but also address the challenges of transportation and delivery across diverse regions.
Exporting BrahMos: Strategic and Regional Impact
The case of India’s advancing missile capabilities and the sale of the BrahMos and the Akash missiles to the Philippines illustrates how India’s arms exports are not just about economics; they are deeply intertwined with geopolitics. Supplying BrahMos to the Philippines is in line with India’s “Act East Policy,” through which New Delhi aims to counter Beijing’s growing influence in the Asia-Pacific region. This provides India with diplomatic leverage with the recipient states in Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific region. This will also likely strengthen Indo-Philippine ties, enhancing Manila’s defensive capabilities.
However, this expansion of defense exports also raises concerns about regional militarization and the potential for an arms race in Southeast Asia. While New Delhi demonstrates its capability as a leading defense exporter and claims that it remains cautious and non-allied in its military engagements, its recent act of provocation against Pakistan suggests otherwise. Moreover, New Delhi’s increasing defense exports and strategic alliances with the US, Israel, and France indicate that it is an active player in the US-led bloc politics.
In addition, India is actively contributing to the shifting balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region by strengthening its deterrence posture and increasing logistical interoperability under various agreements such as LEMOA, thereby planning to be a blue water navy. Beyond the Asia-Pacific, India is extending its defense export strategy to the Middle East and Africa. This approach is not merely economic but also symbolic and strategic, aimed at enhancing India’s image as an emerging global supplier and strengthening regional ties in the Indian Ocean, except with Pakistan.
Implications for Pakistan
Pakistan’s domestic defense production is smaller than India’s. However, Pakistan’s defense industry has grown recently, with an estimated increase in market size of $7 billion in 2024. This does not come near the growth in the Indian defense market. According to open-source data, the Indian defense and aerospace market was estimated to be $27.1 billion in 2024, which is twice the volume of the current Pakistani defense exports.
In the already complex security dynamics of South Asia, India’s ascent as a defense exporter will be counterproductive for the regional strategic stability and will have several ramifications for Pakistan. First, these sales highlight India’s growing military technological advancements and disturb the regional deterrence balance between India and Pakistan. It may compel Pakistan to seek advanced missile systems to defend itself against the growing Indian threat. Other than the military dimension, these sales are likely to boost the Indian economy via generating revenue for further investment in the Indian defense industry.
India’s growing indigenous defense capabilities could meaningfully shift South Asia’s power dynamics in India’s favor.
India’s growing indigenous defense capabilities could meaningfully shift South Asia’s power dynamics in India’s favor, which will significantly increase Pakistan’s security dilemma. Post-May 2025 crisis suggests that New Delhi is seeking a limited war with Pakistan under the nuclear overhang. To safeguard its national interest, Pakistan needs to enhance defense cooperation with China, Russia, and Turkey. This can include technology transfer initiatives, industrial collaboration, and joint ventures that are more advanced than simple procurement of traditional arms. The focus can be on the co-production of drones, including AI-driven technologies. This would be instrumental in increasing Pakistan’s autonomy and conventional deterrence.
If India uses the revenue generated from the Indian defense exports to fuel its local defense industry aimed at further modernization its military, it would further widen the military, technological, and economic asymmetries between Pakistan and India.
Regardless of India’s quantitative advantage over Pakistan. Pakistan demonstrated exceptional command and tactical mastery during the May 2025 crisis. The integration of defense technologies exported from China along with the proactive use of indigenous technologies like AI, electronic warfare, cyber technologies etc., Pakistan was able to counter and respond to Indian advances. This has significantly enhanced its deterrence posture and enhanced Pakistan’s ability to credibly retaliate in a crisis. Islamabad remains cautious about the increased asymmetry due to New Delhi’s expanding modernization in its defense-industrial base as India’s military budget is eight times more than that of Pakistan.
Being a key defense exporter will provide India with diplomatic leverage with the recipient states that can be used to isolate Pakistan at the global level. To counter this, Pakistan could reach out to like-minded states with whom it can build defense ties in order to counter increasing Indian influence in regions like the Middle East and Southeast Asia.
Pakistan demonstrated exceptional command and tactical mastery during the May 2025 crisis.
There appears to be a shift in the geopolitical dynamics of South Asia, with India becoming a major arms supplier, in collaboration with several global powers such as the United States, France, and Russia that are interested in playing a larger role in the subcontinent and the Indian Ocean. Pakistan must focus on building its economic strength and diplomatic lobbying to mitigate these challenges emerging from India. Pakistan also needs to invest in defense initiatives that can support the advancement and strengthening of its defense industry for maintaining the regional balance of power.
The author is working as Associate Director Research at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad.
