The 12 Days of Escalation!

Paras Khan

The recent hostility between Israel and Iran could get out of control and jeopardize the stability of the entire region until the US-brokered ceasefire took place. The whole conflict revolved around two phenomena: Iran’s nuclear program and Israel’s great power ambitions. However, this conflict was exacerbated not only by the hostility between Tehran and Tel Aviv but also by the role played by Washington. Washington has long supported non-proliferation efforts while also providing military and strategic support to Israel, acting as both a peacemaker and a provocateur. As long as Washington keeps arming one side of the conflict while speaking in terms of peace, the region will continue to be caught in a cycle of conflict.

As long as Washington keeps arming one side of the conflict while speaking in terms of peace, the region will continue to be caught in a cycle of conflict.

Both the US and Israel view Iran and its nuclear program as an existential threat. The tensions between the US and Iran erupted when President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” JCPOA in 2018. The JCPOA, which was finalized in 2015, limited Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) 2025 report cited Iran’s uranium enrichment at 60%, which is close to 90% required for nuclear weapons development.

Both the US and Iran had been carrying out rounds of nuclear talks to reach an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program; however, the deal could not be finalized due to some ambiguities. On the other hand, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had already declared that Israel would not wait for the US-Iran nuclear agreement; thus, bypassing negotiations in favor of unilateral action. Israel feared that Iran’s nuclear capabilities might empower anti-Israel groups and disrupt its regional dominance.

Hence, on June 13, 2025, Netanyahu launched an operation, the Rising Lion, targeting Iranian nuclear sites by claiming that Iran was close to developing a nuclear weapon. This escalation marked the beginning of a 12-day war, with Israel airstrikes into Iranian territory, which killed Iran’s nuclear scientists and military personnel and disrupted the US-Iran’s sixth round of nuclear talks.In response to Israeli airstrikes, Iran also launched a series of missile attacks targeting key Israeli military installations and infrastructure, signaling its readiness to confront aggression with force.  

On the other hand, the US also conducted Operation Midnight Hammer against Iran on June 22, 2025, using bunker-buster (B-2 Spirit Stealth) bombers to target three nuclear facilities: Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan. This was the first time bunker-buster munitions were used in the real world, raising legal and ethical concerns. Iran retaliated with missiles on the US Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, prompting Trump to announce a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

The nuclear standoff now appears more about preserving geopolitical hegemony than ensuring nuclear safety.

This intense confrontation has sparked some serious questions regarding the future of nuclear non-proliferation and the role of great powers in international politics. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) have both suffered a serious blow, which sets a dangerous precedent that could destabilize future non-proliferation efforts. It may also drive other states to pursue nuclear options for survival and self-defense. On real terms, the nuclear standoff now appears more about preserving geopolitical hegemony rather than nuclear safety.

The US, often acting as a peace advocate, was accused of violating international norms while openly supporting Israel’s belligerent military posture. But despite confronting powerful states, the US and Israel, Iran’s nuclear infrastructure remained largely intact, which is a major strategic failure for the US and Israel. According to a report by CNN, the US military did not use bunker buster bombs on Iran’s largest nuclear sites because that is so deep that the bombs would not have been effective. Iran also said that it has no plan for new negotiations with the US now.

Operation Midnight Hammer marked the first real-world use of bunker-buster bombers, raising legal and ethical concerns.

A nuclear-capable Iran could reshape the regional balance of power, might force Israel to exercise military restraint, and embolden the regional actors to acquire nuclear weapons. This shift might bring other countries into future conflicts, elevating the threat of nuclear engagements in the region because, in a globalized world, the smoke of war never stays where the fire began. It is also clear that the US’s target was not Iran; it was the protection of its proxy in the Middle East region. Israel has mostly fought with other powers while enjoying American backing. But this time with Iran, Israel felt the real impact of war.

The author is a Research Intern currently associated with IPRI. She holds a Bachelor’s degree in Social Sciences with a specialization in International Relations from SZABIST, Hyderabad Campus.