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The Middle East remains engulfed in uncertainty, with ongoing escalations between Israel and Iran. Since October 7, 2023, the two states have been engaged in a series of both offensive and defensive operations, with intelligence playing a decisive role in the unfolding conflict. The key question now is: who is leading the game in terms of Operational and intelligence capabilities? And is a full-scale war between the two powers inevitable?
The conflict in the Middle East took a dramatic turn on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched a strategic surprise against Israel, carrying out aerial and ground attacks that killed at least 1,200 people. Experts quickly termed the event Israel’s most significant intelligence failure since 1973, as the country failed to assess the impending threat. Despite Israel’s extensive human and technical intelligence networks in Gaza, the heavy reliance on technology, coupled with reduced human intelligence (HUMINT), compromised the depth of actionable intelligence.
Hamas skilfully evaded surveillance by minimising digital communications and using deceptive tactics, leading Israeli intelligence to underestimate the threat. Even when specific warnings—such as Egypt’s notification of an imminent attack—were issued, Israeli officials dismissed them as improbable or beyond Hamas’s capabilities.
Israel has reportedly regained its operational edge, demonstrated by several successful kinetic and non-kinetic operations.
Internal warnings, such as a report from a soldier that aligned with Hamas’s operational plans, were not escalated to the top leadership due to bureaucratic hurdles and potential cognitive biases. These ignored warnings, coupled with systemic issues in intelligence dissemination and assessment processes, left Israel unprepared for the scale and timing of Hamas’s assault. This episode highlighted a profound intelligence breakdown within the Israeli defence establishment.
However, one year after this intelligence failure, experts believe that Israeli intelligence has regained its preeminence. Israel has reportedly regained its operational edge, demonstrated by several successful kinetic and non-kinetic operations. Notable operations include:
a) The April 1, 2024, attack on the Iranian diplomatic mission in Damascus, Syria, which killed several members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
b) The July 31, 2024, killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, a blow to Iranian Operational and Intelligence control.
c) The September 17, 2024, series of explosions of pagers and walkie-talkies across Lebanon and Syria, which killed dozens, including members of Iranian-backed groups, and were followed by the destruction of Hezbollah’s communications equipment.
d) The October 2024 airstrike targeted and killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, followed by the killing of Yahya Sinwar in ground combat in Rafah.
e) The October 26 strikes on Iran, which according to Israel were “precise and targeted.
f). Neutralising Iran’s espionage network in Israel and assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists.
These actions highlight Israel’s continued intelligence successes, demonstrating the country’s operational acumen and its ability to execute precise strikes.
Iran’s intelligence operations have notably intensified over the past year.
Turning to Iran, Israel’s primary adversary in the region, the dynamics have shifted. Traditionally, Iran has engaged with Israel through proxies, known as the “Axis of Resistance,” which includes groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the Fatemiyoun Brigade. However, the nature of the conflict has changed, with direct aerial engagements now a significant component of the hostilities.
Iran’s first direct strike against Israel occurred on April 13, 2024, when it launched hundreds of drones and missiles in retaliation for Israel’s attack on its diplomatic mission in Syria. This marked the first such engagement since the onset of the conflict. A second direct strike took place on October 1, 2024, when Iran launched 200 projectiles targeting Israeli sites, injuring two people.
Iran’s intelligence operations have notably intensified over the past year. Though there is enough literature regarding the intelligence operations of Iran, according to Janatan Sayeh, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, Iran has ramped up espionage activities inside Israel, with joint operations between the IRGC and Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence (MOI).
When assessing the Operational and intelligence capabilities of Israel and Iran, it is clear that Israel holds a significant edge over Iran.
The IRGC’s Quds Force has also been active within Israel and globally, while the IRGC Intelligence Organisation focuses on intelligence collection and analysis, and the Cyber Electronic Command (IRGC-CEC) oversees cyber operations across various missions. When assessing the Operational and intelligence capabilities of Israel and Iran, it is clear that Israel holds a significant edge over Iran.
While some reports suggest that Iran may be planning a more severe attack, it is important to note that Iran is acutely aware of its inability to engage in a full-scale war with Israel. The future remains uncertain, but Israel’s intelligence superiority appears to be a critical factor in shaping the course of this ongoing conflict.
The Author is pursuing a BS in Defense and Strategic Studies at Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad. He can be reached at inayatabdaal@gmail.com
