One Nation & Two States
December 16, 2025
Shahzadi Irrum
In geopolitics, principles are often nothing more than convenient excuses. Canada’s history with India’s nuclear program clearly demonstrates this. The same country that once condemned New Delhi for misusing Canadian technology in its 1974 nuclear test, imposing sanctions and suspending all cooperation, now seems ready to reward the very state it once punished with billions of dollars’ worth of uranium.
This is not merely a policy shift, but a stark display of double standards. Canada’s selective morality prompts urgent questions: if past violations can be overlooked for strategic and economic gains, what credibility remains in its commitment to non-proliferation? And more importantly, how will such hypocrisy affect the fragile balance of power in South Asia?
These concerns become even more serious in light of the reported 10-year, $2.8 billion uranium supply deal between Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Things moved faster for the uranium deal in late November, after Carney and Modi’s meeting at the G20 Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa. Under this agreement, Canadian company Cameco will supply uranium to India’s rapidly expanding nuclear sector, marking a return to cooperation after years of diplomatic tension and opening the possibility of broader trade, including a potential Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA).
However, beneath this “energy collaboration” lies an apparent contradiction: the same Ottawa that previously criticized New Delhi for the misuse of Canadian nuclear technology is now playing a role in advancing India’s nuclear program. As New Delhi’s nuclear capacity grows and historical violations are forgotten, questions about safety, oversight, and the proliferation risks remain. This deal illustrates how principles are often set aside when political or economic interests take precedence.
For India, this agreement arrives at the moment of deep insecurity. The Rafales’ crash during the so-called “Operation Sindoor” was more than an accident; it shattered the image of a rising military power that New Delhi has tried so hard to project. Instead of addressing what went wrong, India has gone into overdrive, signing one deal after another with Western partners, trying to quickly rebuild confidence and prove that its defense capabilities remain intact. Modi himself stated that Operation Sindoor is still on and that India intends to pursue its objectives violently, leaving little room for calm.
By securing long-term uranium supplies and pushing for rapid nuclear expansion, India is not only preparing for future operations; it is also trying to intimidate Pakistan and reshape the military equation in its favor. The troubling part is that Western countries are willingly fueling this race. In a region already known for volatility, their support for New Delhi’s aggressive buildup risks pushing South Asia into an even more unstable and dangerous phase.
On the surface, New Delhi presents the uranium deal as a step towards meeting its growing energy needs. But the reality is far more troubling. Ottawa appears to have conveniently forgotten history, how India once misused Canadian technology to build nuclear weapons. How can Canada now place such blind trust in India and sign a multi-billion-dollar deal despite those past violations? This move reflects a broader truth that alliances in global politics are temporary, and strategic advantage outweighs all else.
Canada appears to believe that the uranium is for India’s civilian purposes, specifically to expand its nuclear power generation, yet in practice, this assumption raises serious strategic concerns. By importing uranium for power generation, India can preserve its own domestic supplies – supplies that may then be used for strategic purposes. Calling the agreement “civilian cooperation” does not really hide the risks. In reality, it gives New Delhi more room to act boldly, while regional neighbors are left to worry about the shifting balance of power.
More than a uranium contract, this deal tests Canada’s ability to weigh risks and responsibility. While Ottawa may view it as supporting India’s civilian nuclear energy, the reality is far more complicated. South Asia is a region where mistrust runs deep, and one misstep can lead to serious consequences. By moving ahead without fully considering the risks, Canada could be playing a dangerous gamble with regional stability.
By signing deal after deal and steadily expanding its nuclear capabilities, India could catalyze Pakistan’s efforts to bolster its deterrence capabilities, setting the stage for a tense and unpredictable security competition. The bigger question is not whether the uranium will be used for energy, but whether Canada is ready to take responsibility if this deal heightens tensions in a region that can least afford another crisis. Rather than rushing forward, Ottawa must pause and rigorously reconsider this deal, as it could exacerbate regional insecurities and destabilize South Asia’s delicate security order.
The author is an Assistant Research Fellow (Balochistan Think Tank Network, Quetta).
