Will US Strikes Against Iranian-backed Groups Trigger Another War?

Eman Nawab

The conflict in West Asia is escalating. Looking at the recent developments, the situation most likely has the potential to escalate into a direct military confrontation between the US and Iran. Just a few days ago Biden announced that US troops would strike multiple Iranian targets located in Syria and Iraq. The Pentagon itself admitted that this was a dangerous moment in the Middle East. They have clearly stated that although they will work to avoid a greater conflict, the United States’ interests remain supreme. The US security department went on to say that they will respond at the place, manner, and time of their choosing.

All of this is ultimately an offshoot of the ongoing Israel-Gaza War. The US is the biggest facilitator of Israel hence Iran considers it its duty as a Muslim brother to target and harm US facilities be it commercial or military as much as possible. One such example is The Iranian-backed Houthis operating in the Red Sea targeting sea vessels of any country supporting Israel, especially the United States. This is not the only group rather multiple Iranian-backed militias have been targeting US bases since last October. An estimate is 160 times. This military alliance is called the Axis of Resistance. The US has struck these facilities over 61 times mainly in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. The aim was to discourage proxy strategies used by Iran yet they were unsuccessful.

Iran’s position needs to be analyzed as to how much control it has over these armed groups and whether it will involve itself directly in war with the US as well. For now, Iran has been on the safe side disassociating itself from any such actions or orders. It was quick to remind Washington that it was not interested in initiating war. However, the Iranian president also made it clear that if any oppressor states try to corner it, Iran will not be side-lined and put up a fight back against such aggressive states. This was a signal to the United States.

It is important to keep in mind that the US elections are approaching soon as well. Biden wants a second term hence his actions are dictated by the domestic political climate. He cannot be lenient towards Iran as this could prove to be a weakness. This goes on to explain the quick and harsh American response. The question is whether this qualifies as fair play. Although it can be argued (and rightly so) that international politics is biased with weak mechanisms of accountability. The US is a superpower with one of the world’s best military facilities. The Iranian-backed militias although highly motivated are insignificant compared to the US. The magnitude of the damage caused by both sides varies a great deal with various instances occurring where innocent civilians were killed by the US forces. With the US being directly involved the crisis could spill into a regional conflict causing unrest in the Middle East and West Asia which is already clouded by the Israel-Gaza war.

The US is fully aware of the repercussions of such actions, yet it still chose to go ahead with its plan. The first retaliatory act came with the US launching strikes on February 4th in Iraq and Syria against 85 targets linked to Iranian-backed Militias. It did so to respond to an attack in Jordan which killed several American soldiers. More strikes are expected over the coming days, the targets being personnel or groups trained or sponsored by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Force. The US wants to avoid targeting civilians as reports suggest they will wait for clear weather for better visibility. They want to avenge the death of their soldiers. Three American soldiers lost their lives while about a dozen were wounded. While on the other side of the spectrum around 40 people were killed with 16 in Iraq and 18 in Syria. Iraq claims that civilians were also killed in the strike.

Now that the US forces have fired the drones there is no turning back. The situation can quickly spiral into something more bad leading to a war between the US and Iran. The world is already suffering from two wars namely Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine. Another war on the scenario means more bad news, bloodshed, and chaos.

The writer is a student of Peace and Conflict Studies at NDU, Islamabad.