Can Ukraine Resume Its Role as a Major Grain Exporter?

By Abdullah Ahmad

Ukraine, the breadbasket of Europe and one of the largest exporter of grains in the world currently faces severe upheavals in exporting its grains due to a de facto blockade by Russia. In July the Kremlin terminated an agreement that allowed Kyiv to export grain by sea, a move that was deemed crucial for the global food supply. The move aimed at further handicapping Ukraine’s war-stricken economy has dealt a severe blow as exports are a vital source of foreign exchange.
Amid challenges, a ray of hope has emerged. For the first time since the termination of the agreement, two cargo ships have arrived at Ukrainian ports, offering the possibility of Ukraine re-establishing its grain trade. The agreement which was brokered by The United Nations and Türkiye to provide a safe maritime humanitarian corridor in July of 2022 allowed up to 1000 ships containing grains and another foodstuff to leave Ukraine, until it was terminated by Russia in July 2023.
Loaded with almost 22000 tons of wheat, the vessels, bulk carrier Aroyat and the cargo vessel Resilient Africa are destined to reach Africa and Asia. The mentioned vessels are the first civilian ships to reach Ukrainian ports ever since the termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
The Aroyat departing from a Turkish port and The Resilient Africa departing from a Romanian port, both sailing under Palau’s flag had to take cautious routes along the coast as they entered Ukrainian waters. The routes were designed specifically to reduce the risks of navigating through a major front of the war, the Black Sea where Ukraine seeks to combat Russian naval dominance. Russia has attacked the port of Odesa and grain facilities in the region since the war commenced. Recently up to six drones and six missiles were intercepted by Ukrainian Air Defence aimed toward the port of Odesa and grain facilities in the region
The situation gets even more complex as Russia has made civilian shipping increasingly difficult by declaring that it would consider any ship entering a Ukrainian port as potentially carrying military cargo. Last month Russian patrol vessels fired warning shots at a civilian vessel in the Black Sea before boarding it.
Although 3 of the six nations bordering the Black Sea, Turkey, Bulgaria, and Romania are members of NATO, Ukraine is unable to the organization’s protective umbrella. Ukraine has been pressing for membership, which the current President Volodymyr Zelensky, views as a major strategic and defensive objective.
Negotiations have not led to any productive developments as of yet and Ukraine’s attempts to increase the volume of goods through the Danube River Ports had previously failed, undermining a crucial component of Ukraine’s economy. The Danube River ports at Izmail and Reni have faced the wrath of Russian missile and drone strikes, making an already expensive alternative too risky to be used.
In a major development last month, a civilian ship was the first to venture out of the port of Odesa into the Black Sea after the launch of the Russian Invasion in February 2022. The ship utilized a temporary corridor established by Ukraine’s Ministry of Infrastructure for civilian vessels, in one of many unilateral efforts to improve the current scenario, none of which have been sustainable.
Furthermore, Ukraine has launched a counteroffensive against Russia, escalating the tensions in the Black Sea leading to an increase in drone and missile strikes from both sides. Just last week Ukraine launched 10 Cruise Missiles at the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s headquarters badly damaging two naval vessels and starting a fire at a shipyard. On Sunday The Russian Defence Ministry stated that it had intercepted several Ukrainian drones aimed towards the Crimean and Moscow region. Ukrainian drones have also been intercepted in the Domodedovo and Istrinsky districts.
To explain the Ukrainian thought behind such measures the head of Ukraine’s National Defence and Security Council wrote that eliminating Russia’s Black Sea Fleet can be a major development towards the process of hopefully finding an end to the war.
It is unclear how long Ukraine will be able to sustain exports through this route as Russia will certainly plan on combating this attempt by Ukraine. If Ukraine can sustain the export of Grains it will help it’s struggling war-stricken economy while at the same time ensuring that global food supplies are not hampered. Since the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, the global wheat supply has suffered tremendously as the two nations collectively exported around one-fourth of the global wheat supply. The re-establishment of grain trade routes will serve to alleviate the issues faced by various countries in sourcing grains.

The writer is pursuing his BS in International Relations from NDU Islamabad.