Changing Geopolitics; Challenges to US Hegemony 

By Qirat Mirza

There is no permanent friend and foe in International relations. In the Cold War, we saw there were three blocs USA bloc, the Soviet bloc, and the countries that were not allied with any Power. With the end of the Cold War, the international system transformed from a bipolar to a unipolar order involving the disintegration of the USSR and the building of USA hegemony in the world. Now, the contemporary world order is becoming multipolar with many powers commencing to rise and challenge the existing USA hegemony in the world because the USA is the only country in the world that is ahead of other countries in all domains, namely Finance, military, and technology. It also involves the countries who used to remain strong USA allies in the past, namely India and Saudi Arabia.

According to the realists, when a new power begins operating, the existing powers perceive it as a challenge and start dismantling its position in the international system. The USA is also countering its rival China by making India its ally in South Asia therefore he is supporting India in its conflict with China in the Indian Ocean as 90% of China’s oil trade passes through it. Though India has good relations with USA-sanctioned Russia, the USA is not levying sanctions on India because the strategic partnership with it is crucial for countering both China and Russia.

To counter China’s bigger project, namely the Belt and Road initiative which will connect it with Central Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, they have decided to build a corridor that will connect India with Central Asian countries, Europe, and the Middle East. The decision was taken at the G20 summit recently held in India. On the other hand, its friend India is following a policy of nonalignment and has become a part of BRICS an initiative taken by Russia and China to challenge the Western hegemony in the world and develop its bloc named South Globe bloc.

BRICS comprises about 25% of the earth’s land, and 42% of the world’s population 23 countries have applied for its membership including Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the UAE. Russian attack on Ukraine told the lesson to the world that dollars are not only a currency but a weapon. As 80% of world trade and 59% of forex reserves of countries are in dollars. The USA has imposed sanctions on Russia and froze its currency reserves. On the other hand, 6% of world trade is in China’s currency Yuan. China was well aware of the power of dollars therefore he was not launching an attack on Taiwan, but he was making preparations for copping it in the form of BRICS and developing his currency. They are planning to develop currency into an alternative to Dollars that will be backed by gold. Therefore, from March 2023 BRICS countries are increasing their gold reserves for instance, China has increased by 31 tons, India by 3 tons and Russia by 102 tons. Secondly, the two USA-sanctioned countries as a member of BRICS will be able to trade freely namely Russia and Iran.

Saudi Arabia which had been a USA strategic partner based on mutual interests over the past 80 years in the Middle East is changing its sides. Saudi Arabia is not only applying for membership in BRICS but has decided to cooperate with Moscow in putting cuts in the oil supply and getting closer to USA rivals. Russia and Saudi Arabia are the biggest oil-producing countries and major players in the global energy market OPEC. They have deliberated to decrease the supply of oil to keep it in conformity with demand therefore Saudi will levy an oil cut of 1 million per barrel and Russia will impose oil cuts of 3 million per barrel. The USA, India, and China are the biggest oil importers in the world because of their huge size.

China is also an important factor in the Oil cuts decision because it is having slow growth and consumption and demand for oil has decreased in China therefore they believe they don’t need to produce in such an amount. Secondly, the spike in oil prices in global markets will immensely benefit oil-producing countries. We can see the spike in global oil prices from 60$ to 90$ per barrel. This decision will have repercussions for the biggest economies like the USA and will lead to an increase, in inflation and unemployment by increasing the prices of commodities. Therefore, the USA also threatened Saudi Arabia to have consequences if it kept imposing oil cuts in 2023 but Saudi is not paying heed to it because it has found another partner namely China who also played the role of mediator in bringing confederation in Saudi- Iran relations. In addition, it has signed an agreement with China to develop ballistic missiles.

After World War II, the USA was shaped in the global order and laid the foundations of peacekeeping organizations, namely the United Nations, military alliance NATO, and Financial organizations IMF and World Bank. Calling itself the “leader of the free world”, maintained its superpower in the dominions through economic pressure, military force, covert action, and diplomatic leverage. The USA is a still global military superpower but its military power is not sufficient to sustain its hegemony. The USA lost its leadership role in the world due to its embarrassing withdrawal from Afghanistan, a dispute over nuclear negotiations with Iran, and its global energy policy with Saudi Arabia.

The developing multipolar world order involving China’s leading role in the world is apparent from its development of armed artificial Irelands in the disputed South China Sea, Djibouti military base, and its expanding footprints in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, along with its development of multilateral institutions namely Shingai cooperation organizations, Asia infrastructure development and Regional comprehensive economic partnership. The changing geopolitical conflicts are causing countries to change their loyalty, which is a challenge for the hegemony the USA used to possess.

The writer is currently pursuing a bachelor’s degree in International relations from International Islamic University Islamabad.