Normalization of Israel-Saudi Ties- A Long Way off?

By Eman Nawab

“We are a long way from there. We got a lot to talk about”, said Biden in an interview with CNN back in July of this year. However, in the last few months, the dynamics have evolved with the US fueling its efforts vigorously to bring the two once-sworn rivals on the same page. What made Saudi Arabia willing to negotiate? What’s in it for the US and Israel? 

This saga was given birth when the historic Abraham Accords were signed two years ago during the Trump era. UAE and Bahrain accepted the existence of Israel. Not only that but diplomatic ties, trade deals, cultural exchanges, and tourism were also initiated. Later Morocco and Sudan also became part of the Arab countries who accepted Israel. However, the most important Arab country Saudi Arabia which is considered the cradle of Islam and the leader of the Muslim countries is now on the priority list of the US and Israel. This is not going to be an easy task. Most importantly, because the issue of Palestine is emotional for the Muslim world, and if Saudia Arabia does agree to accept Israel, it will have to legitimize the decision in front of the Muslim countries.

Analysts believe it is not a question of if rather the mystery is when Saudia Arabia will decide to join the Abraham Accords. Mohamad Bin Salman, the prince has three major demands from the US. The first demand is mainly concerned with security guarantees from the US in case Iran decides to launch an attack on the kingdom. It is the same as the mutual defense treaties the US has signed with Japan and South Korea. Secondly, it wants help in building a nuclear plant. MBS is aware of the fact that one day the country’s oil reserves will run out. Hence, in the future, they want an energy alternate. Last and maybe the most important demand is concessions for the Palestinians in the form of autocracy over their affairs, trade investments, and new settlements. It wants to keep the prospect of the two-state solution alive. It is also considered that the last demand is mainly related to Saudi’s face-saving strategy in front of other Muslim countries.

Biden is pushing the deal as his interest lies in it as well. The elections are next year and this will strengthen his position for the return to the presential office. The deal will also cement his legacy in foreign policy. At the same time, it will eliminate the threat of China’s rising influence in the region. Whereas, for Israel, the symbolism of Saudi Arabia accepting it is a great achievement as it will become an example for other Muslim and Arab countries to follow in the future. Another factor is security. Israel has fought almost seven wars in the last seven decades with the Arab powers. It does not want to waste its energy and resources on this anymore.

This deal is easier said than done. Many people within Biden’s government oppose MBS and his policies. Moreover, the Biden administration termed The Saudis a pariah state when the Khashoggi killing happened. Saudia Arabia needs to forgive this comment to move ahead with the deal in true means. Looking at Israel, Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister is enthusiastic about this peace deal. He has also hinted at providing concessions to Palestine suggesting to give all powers to Palestine to govern itself but not enough powers to threaten Israel. However, the nationalist parties with whom Netanyahu has formed a coalition government will strongly oppose the idea of such concessions.

The White House authority is hopeful that MBS will sign the deal by the end of this year. However, assessing the analysis of Saudi experts, they believe MBS will not become a part of such a treaty until after his father, the King’s death. This is because King Salman has advocated his support for the Palestinian cause openly. Another thing is that Saudi Arabia will no longer be able to openly criticize the atrocities committed by the Israeli authorities in Palestine due to diplomatic obligations if the deal is signed. Right now, they are not bound by any compulsions of this sort unlike the UAE and Bahrain.  

Sadly, however, the sufferers of this deal will be the Palestinians. They consider it a betrayal. In 1967, the Arab countries met in the capital of Sudan after the Arab-Israel war where they passed the Khartoum Resolution. It consisted of three major points. No recognition, No peace, and No negotiations with the state of Israel. However, decades later they have decades later the movement for Palestinians has lost its momentum with Arab states not only accepting but becoming partners with Israel. Israel is a strong state with huge technological advancements and it should be recognized by other states. But so should Palestine as it was promised 70 years ago. However, today one of those promises is almost forgotten. 

It is not a matter of time before Saudi Arabia accepts Israel establishing diplomatic ties and signing defense deals with them. However, compromises will be made by all three sides for this to happen. This deal is not only beneficial for the Kingdom but equally in the interest of Israel and the USA. Whenever this does happen other Muslim and Arab states will be quick to follow suit. 

The writer is the student of Peace and Conflict Studies at NDU Islamabad.