A New Status of Iran Nuclear Program-JCPOA 2.0
March 21, 2025
The Escalating Threat of Cyber Warfare
March 22, 2025
Aamna Zaheer
Last month, Saudi Arabia hosted US and Russian officials; this week, it hosted US and Ukrainian officials. Both meetings ended in success: Kyiv agreed to a US ceasefire proposal. The ceasefire is temporary, lasting for thirty days. This is a major concession from Volodymyr Zelensky, who was previously skeptical of talks with Russia.
Last month, Zelensky was sidelined in the White House. Now, a joint US-Ukraine statement praises the bravery of Ukrainians and he also agreed to a minerals deal with the US—the same one he had previously walked out of. Fears that Trump would negotiate without Ukraine were unfounded.
Ukraine agrees to a temporary truce brokered by the US, but Russia’s stance remains uncertain.
Donald Trump’s unpredictability can sometimes work well. In Jeddah, Ukraine was not the only side making concessions—Trump resumed military aid and intelligence sharing with Kyiv. The aid freeze had been a tactic to bring Zelensky to the negotiating table, and it worked. With the ceasefire now agreed upon, US weapons will resume flowing into Ukraine.
A US delegation, led by Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, was in Moscow on Thursday evening and by Friday morning, Witkoff had departed for Washington, carrying a message from the Kremlin. Witkoff met Putin for three hours last month and now back with a bigger mission—to secure a ceasefire. Putin has historically rejected short-term plans, preferring a final deal.
In Washington, President Trump remains optimistic and plans to speak with Putin this week stating that Russia is inclined toward making the right decision. US Foreign Minister Marco Rubio stated that if Russia agrees, it’s a step toward peace. If they refuse, it will clarify who is the impediment to peace—Russia or Ukraine. In the start, the Kremlin has not given a clear yes or no, awaiting an official briefing from the Americans. Russia had previously rejected a similar proposal from France, given its military advantage.
Putin’s extensive experience shapes his strategic approach, balancing decisions between committing, delaying, or rejecting. Putin is now applying that experience to the ongoing ceasefire negotiations. The world awaited his response to the proposed truce, expecting either a clear acceptance or rejection. Instead, he introduced a third option: conditional support.
While Putin has expressed openness to a ceasefire, he has raised several concerns, including the mechanisms for monitoring the agreement and the post-truce developments. He seeks further clarification from the United States. The Kremlin views the ceasefire as merely a temporary respite for Kyiv. Reports suggest Moscow has set three conditions including no NATO membership in Ukraine and recognition of occupied regions.
Putin delays a clear response, weighing military gains against diplomatic risks.
Russia has not confirmed or denied these demands, but they align with past positions. Zelensky sees the ceasefire as a stepping stone to a larger peace deal. If Putin continues fighting, he could annex more Ukrainian land. Some of Putin’s concerns appear valid—such as whether Ukraine will use the ceasefire period to procure additional weapons, how violations will be verified, and who will oversee the agreement’s implementation.
Until these uncertainties are resolved, Putin is unlikely to commit. The key question remains: is he genuinely seeking clarity, or is he strategically buying time? Ukraine asserts the latter. President Zelensky, in a statement, claimed that Putin is maneuvering toward an eventual rejection without directly refusing Trump’s proposal. A ceasefire would allow Kyiv to regroup and restock, and Putin is under no pressure to agree.
Trump can pressure Zelensky by cutting off aid, but he lacks similar leverage over Putin. The only option Trump has is imposing sanctions, but that may not be enough. Militarily, a truce makes little sense for Russia. Politically, rejecting the ceasefire could make Putin appear unwilling to negotiate. Will he demand a comprehensive peace deal instead? Will he set strict conditions? Or will he agree and take it from there? Public sentiment in both Ukraine and Russia remain skeptical after three years of war.
So then, the question is—what happens next? A lot hinges on Putin’s talks with Donald Trump. The Kremlin says the conversation is necessary. And on his part, Trump is game. Putin has a clear objective here. The last time he spoke to Trump, things moved very fast. Within days, US and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia, and they agreed to end the war in Ukraine. So, Vladimir Putin will be hoping for a repeat—to sway Trump during their phone call, Trump could offer sanctions relief in exchange for a ceasefire.
Until now, all sides have kept their cards close. Russia must now respond to the ceasefire request. If they accept, Kyiv will have to sue for peace. If they refuse, Trump must decide on the next steps: mediation, sanctions, or stepping back. However, Russia remains resilient under sanctions and is growing faster than G7 nations.
Even if Putin agrees, enforcing the truce will be complex. The front line is nearly 1,000 km long, plus a vast naval front in the Black Sea. Monitoring such a truce requires significant effort. Europe is already preparing for this role, with defence ministers meeting in Paris. Europe may play the ‘good cop’ role, nudging Ukraine toward compromises.
We can only speculate about what comes next, but there is one thing we can say for sure: this peace will not come easy. For starters, there are way too many players on the field. Obviously, we have Russia and Ukraine, the two key parties. But beyond them, we also have Europe, Britain, and the United States, and all of them add to the complexity. Ultimately, a deal will require give-and-take, and Putin’s response will provide crucial insights.
Ukraine’s best leverage was its incursion into the Kursk region of southern Russia. At its peak, Ukraine controlled 1,400 square kilometres of Russian land. However, Russia has retaken nearly 90% of this territory. Putin recently visited Kursk in military fatigues, boosting morale and signalling his determination. Ukraine’s losses in Kursk include troops and weapons, weakening its negotiating position. Russia, on the other hand, used North Korean troops to retake the area, preserving its own forces.
Despite setbacks, Ukraine continues attacking Russia with drones. This week, Ukraine launched 77 drones into Russian territory—all were downed. Russia also fired 17 drones at Ukraine—most were intercepted. The attack signalled Ukraine’s intent to pressure Russia into negotiations. Since the Saudi Arabia talks, Moscow has intensified attacks on Ukraine to gain leverage. Both sides are trying to negotiate from a position of strength. At present, Russia has the upper hand. Putin’s dilemma is clear. If he says yes, he must pause the fighting soon—at a time when he’s making gains on the battlefield. Last week, Russia liberated a key town in Kursk. They have taken almost 90% of the land from Ukraine.
Trump, Europe, and world leaders push for peace, but enforcing a truce remains complex.
At such a point in the war, a truce is risky. If it fell apart, Putin would have wasted valuable time. But saying no is also risky because it plays into Ukraine’s hands. Zelensky is betting on Putin rejecting this truce. Only then can he flip the narrative. So far, Donald Trump has been blaming Zelensky for playing hardball, for refusing to stop the fighting. But if Putin says no to this truce, then that blame would shift to Russia. Do you see the dilemma here? Perhaps that’s why Putin said maybe—to buy more time, to make a calculated decision.
The world is pushing for peace, but a resolution remains uncertain. Secondly, look at the differences over a truce. Remember, this is not a final peace deal. This is just a 30-day pause, a stepping stone to a final settlement. And yet, both sides are unable to agree on it—on a 30-day pause. So how will they get a peace deal done? It looks virtually impossible right now. But we can only hope that changes. If Putin agrees to a ceasefire, more diplomatic work will be needed to sustain it, if he refuses, Trump will have to decide on the next steps. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining the course of the war. All eyes remain on Putin’s next move.
The Author, Aamna Zaheer is an undergraduate student and research intern. Her expertise lies in analyzing hoe security issues influence the decision making of foreign policy.
