
Strategic Realignments in a Changing Regional Landscape
June 21, 2025
Misreading Nuclear Realities: Contextualizing South Asia’s Deterrence Dynamics
June 26, 2025
Qazi Hussain Asghar
As the world absorbed the shockwaves of the recent Iran-Israel conflict, a perhaps underappreciated but remarkably influential player emerged from the shadows of regional turmoil: Pakistan. Often viewed through the lens of South Asian geopolitics, Islamabad’s calibrated, multifaceted role in navigating the crisis between Tehran and Tel Aviv marked a new chapter in its diplomatic evolution. Pakistan’s actions reflected strategic clarity, mature diplomacy, and regional foresight, positioning it as a credible force for peace in an increasingly polarized world.
Pakistan’s diplomacy helped shape Washington’s limited response, averting wider escalation.
From the outset of the hostilities, Pakistan adopted a balanced and principled stance. It openly condemned Israeli aggression, expressing unequivocal solidarity with Iran while simultaneously advocating for restraint and de-escalation. This public position was not mere rhetoric but a calculated signal; Islamabad refused to be a passive observer. Instead, it chose a morally and geopolitically grounded path, affirming that its strategic interests are best served through regional stability, not further fragmentation.
Islamabad’s consistent messaging was matched by a flurry of behind-the-scenes diplomacy. Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir, played a pivotal role in these efforts. His extended meeting with the US. President Donald Trump was reportedly instrumental in shaping Washington’s calibrated response.
According to diplomatic insiders, General Asim Munir advised the US administration against actions that could tip Iran into a state of collapse, warning of the dangerous precedent of regime change in the Middle East. His emphasis on the complexity of Iran’s internal dynamics and the dangers of broader escalation appears to have resonated. In subsequent briefings, President Trump notably remarked, “They know Iran very well,” an acknowledgment widely interpreted as a nod to Pakistan’s insights.
This interaction likely influenced the Trump administration’s decision to carry out limited strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, symbolic gestures designed to placate Israeli concerns, while avoiding any further military escalation. Crucially, when Iran retaliated with missile strikes on the US positions in Qatar and Iraq, President Trump refrained from authorizing a counteroffensive. This unexpected restraint helped avert a full-scale regional war and underscored the influence of Pakistan’s diplomatic engagement.
Behind-the-scenes engagement emphasized restraint over regime change in the Middle East.
Another moment of strategic brilliance came with Pakistan’s surprise move to nominate President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. While dismissed by some as political theatre, this nomination served a deliberate purpose. It was a diplomatic nudge, a message designed to frame Trump not as a war leader, but as a potential stabilizer. Islamabad tied the nomination to Trump’s past role in facilitating the ceasefire during the Indo-Pakistan tensions, thereby encouraging him to embrace a similar legacy in the Middle East.
The nomination preceded the eventual ceasefire announcement, suggesting that Pakistan’s symbolic gesture may have helped create diplomatic space for de-escalation. Pakistan’s foreign policy establishment also ensured that its position was echoed at global forums. Co-sponsoring a UN Security Council draft resolution with China and Russia, Pakistan demanded an immediate and unconditional ceasefire. This move aligned it with major powers advocating diplomatic resolution, reinforcing its image as a constructive international actor rather than a reactive regional power.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, for his part, pursued high-level diplomacy with leaders across the region. His direct engagement with Iran’s President and Gulf envoys from Saudi Arabia and Qatar helped build a regional consensus for calm. By maintaining open lines with both Tehran and the Gulf capitals, Pakistan helped prevent Iran’s isolation and created a shared regional interest in avoiding war.
Islamabad’s symbolic gestures created diplomatic space for a ceasefire.
Pakistan’s actions throughout the crisis underscore a fundamental shift in its diplomatic posture. Rather than aligning reflexively with any bloc, it acted in accordance with a vision of regional stability and strategic autonomy. This recalibrated approach reflects an understanding of Pakistan’s prosperity.
The author is a PhD scholar in International Relations.