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The China-Taiwan conflict has been ongoing for decades, with both sides engaging in various forms of warfare. While the China-Taiwan conflict is portrayed as a mere political, economic, and military conflict before the world, in recent years, the role of digital warfare has become increasingly important in this conflict. Cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and offensive cyber capabilities have all been used by both China and Taiwan, escalating the tensions. Digital warfare refers to the use of technology to conduct military operations in cyberspace. It involves using computer networks, software, and other digital technologies to disrupt or damage an adversary’s information systems, communication networks, and critical infrastructure. It is a subset of what is called information warfare. In the context of the China-Taiwan conflict, digital warfare has become an increasingly important tool for both sides.
Taiwan has had an active and capable offensive cyber force for more than a decade. Taiwanese leadership has emphasized and grown its cyber capabilities over the years. Taiwan’s cyberespionage capabilities could play a useful role in countering China’s growing disruptive attacks and detecting any military build-up along the Strait. Taiwan’s cyber resilience has also been bolstered in response to heightened Chinese aggression. On the other hand, China has been accused of launching cyberattacks against Taiwan through hacking and disinformation campaigns. The Chinese government has also been accused of using disinformation as part of its cyber warfare strategy against
Cyberattacks against Taiwan’s government agencies have been a significant part of China’s cyber offensive. In August 2020, Taiwan accused hacking groups linked to the Chinese government of attacking at least 10 government agencies and some 6,000 email accounts. These attacks are primarily attributed to hacking groups linked to the Chinese government. Politicians and cybersecurity experts in Taiwan have reported that China has begun a cyber offensive through hacking and disinformation campaigns. China’s armed forces are increasingly engaging in non-military warfare on Taiwan that weaponizes disinformation and psychological manipulation. In July 2021, a hacker group linked to China was accused of carrying out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s transportation network.
Taiwan has been ranked as the biggest target for foreign disinformation in the world for the last nine years. The majority of these attacks are believed to originate from China. China has been actively engaging in disinformation campaigns targeting Taiwan, aiming to polarize Taiwanese society and manipulate public opinion to serve its interests. During Taiwan’s local elections, Chinese actors have been detected spreading false narratives regarding the origins of COVID-19 and incumbent government efforts to manipulate case statistics. Disinformation tactics have also targeted Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen (in the run-up to Taiwan’s 2020 presidential election), diplomatic allies, celebrities, journalists, and prominent supporters of Taiwan’s independence.
In response to these disinformation campaigns, Taiwan has been taking measures to counter China’s growing disruptive attacks. The country’s civic technology community works with social media companies to identify, debunk, and downrank viral conspiracy theories on social media platforms. Taiwan has also been using digital governance to reinforce the effectiveness of disease prevention and control measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. The island nation has established organizational structures for offensive cyber capabilities and has successfully breached key Chinese systems for over a decade. Taiwan has also established the Department of Cyber Security to improve the implementation of information security measures. Civil society groups, such as Fake News Cleanser and Kuma Academy, have been conducting workshops to train citizens in identifying and combating disinformation. Taiwan has also been investing in harnessing the Ministry of Digital Affairs to help counter disinformation and hybrid warfare.
Taiwan has been collaborating with other countries to combat disinformation campaigns. The United States, for example, has introduced the bipartisan Taiwan Cybersecurity Resiliency Act, which aims to strengthen Taiwan’s cyber defenses by conducting cyber training exercises, defending the country’s military networks, infrastructure, and systems, and leveraging U.S. cybersecurity technologies to help defend Taiwan against Chinese cyberattacks. This legislation is meant to assist Taiwan in becoming a “well-armed porcupine” prepared to repel China in an invasion scenario. Taiwan has also been working with other countries, such as Australia, to exchange perspectives on digital development and transformation.
Digital warfare poses significant threats to the island’s economy and society. Cyberattacks targeting Taiwan’s tech sector can lead to the theft of technology and the loss of engineers, which could undermine the island’s thriving semiconductor industry. This industry is crucial to the global supply chain for goods ranging from fighter jets to cars. Disinformation campaigns can polarize Taiwanese society and undermine public trust in the government and democratic institutions. These campaigns can also create a sense of insecurity and fear among the population, potentially affecting the overall stability and well-being of Taiwan’s society. In the event of a military conflict between China and Taiwan, cyber operations would likely play a significant role in shaping the outcome. The US has warned that any Chinese invasion of Taiwan will likely be accompanied by massive cyberattacks against the West and the United States creating panic and chaos in cyberspace. This would have severe consequences for global trade and the world economy, with an estimated cost of $2.6 trillion.
The United States has played a significant role in the China-Taiwan conflict, maintaining a robust unofficial relationship with Taiwan despite not having formal diplomatic relations with the island. The U.S. is bound by the Taiwan Relations Act, which requires the country to provide Taiwan with defensive weapons to maintain sufficient self-defense capabilities. The United States has a longstanding policy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding its response if China invades Taiwan, aiming to deter China from invading and discourage Taiwan from declaring independence. The United States is committed to supporting Taiwan’s democracy and security, as the two nations share common values such as freedom, democracy, and respect for human rights. Taiwan is a key United States partner in the Asia-Pacific region, and the two countries have deep commercial and economic ties. The United States has consistently opposed any efforts to determine Taiwan’s future by other than peaceful means and has urged both Beijing and Taipei to maintain the status quo.
The impact of U.S.-China relations on the conflict is complex, with both positive and negative consequences depending on the state of relations between the two superpowers. On one hand, a deterioration in U.S.-China relations can lead to increased Chinese aggression towards Taiwan, raising the risk of military conflict. On the other hand, a stable and predictable U.S.-China relationship can create space for the United States and Taiwan to deepen their ties and lower the risk for other countries to strengthen their relations with Taiwan without fear of being pulled into a militarized confrontation. As Tensions continue to rise, the U.S. needs to maintain its commitment to Taiwan’s security and democracy while also working to manage its relationship with China to prevent a full-scale military conflict.
Digital warfare between China and Taiwan has the potential to cause significant disruptions to international security and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. The conflict has the potential to destabilize the international order and undermine global peace and stability. In the Asia-Pacific region, digital warfare is generally perceived through the lens of state-to-state conflicts where one state uses computer technology to deliberately disrupt, manipulate, degrade, or destroy the information and communications technology (ICT) systems of another state for strategic, political, or military purposes. Asymmetric negation and strategic ambiguity in emerging new domains of warfare, cyberspace, near-space, and underwater will increasingly characterize future conflicts in the Asia-Pacific. A conflict over Taiwan would affect not only economic activity with Taiwan but with China as well. Even assuming no sanctions or military action, a conflict would disrupt global supply chains, particularly in the semiconductor industry, and cause significant economic damage.
The Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2021 investigates the regional security implications of more competitive Sino-American relations and the potential for conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Participants stressed the importance of a multi-layered security architecture for the region, compensating for the failure of regional institutions to meet the high expectations invested in them. The network of bilateral security alliances centered on the United States still undergirds regional security, and a continued U.S. presence is generally considered to be an essential element of Asia Pacific security and stability. As such, it is important for all parties involved to prioritize cybersecurity and work towards a multi-layered security architecture for the region.
The future of the China-Taiwan conflict will be shaped by the evolving dynamics of digital warfare and the potential for escalation. As cyber capabilities continue to develop, the risk of miscalculation and unintended consequences increases. The growing number of cyberattacks and the potential for escalating tensions between China and Taiwan raise concerns about the possibility of a full-scale military conflict. To mitigate these risks, it is essential for all parties involved in the conflict to invest in cybersecurity measures, work together to combat disinformation campaigns, and maintain open lines of communication to prevent miscalculations and unintended consequences. Additionally, the international community must work together to develop norms and regulations governing the use of cyber capabilities in conflict situations, to minimize the risk of escalation and promote global peace and stability.
The writer is a student of Peace and Conflict Studies at National Defence University Islamabad.
