Strengthening Ties with the Allies: Saudi to Buy Rafales from France

Noorulain Shaikh

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), in attempt to strengthen its air force, might “consider” purchasing 54, highly agile, Rafale fighter jets from France’s Dassault Aviation. The communication is confined to the estimated price of the fighter jets, and no probable concurrence has been confirmed by either entity as of the present. There is also no objective hint that would suggest that the Saudis are desperate to strike a deal with the French company as of yet.

Riyadh and Paris have developed strong diplomatic and economic ties over the years. The foreign relations were established in the year 1926, and since then both the countries have grown strong allies on grounds of mutual trade and political interests. The key component of the trade between both countries is the supply of military equipment by France. The naval and air forces of the kingdom have particularly benefited from advanced military arms. The trade of arms has been frequent since 2015. France has also often been named among the countries that provided aid to Saudi Arabia while it waged war in Yemen and Libya. 

Recently, the Saudi administration has been trying to stock aircraft for their Royal Saudi Air Forces (RSAF). The kingdom considered the option of purchasing more than one hundred Rafales from France the previous year as well. Apart from France, the RSAF is also dependent on the UK for aircraft like the Panavia Tornado and the Eurofighter Typhoon and on the US for F-15E fighters. Before 2018, Germany also sold Eurofighters to Saudi Arabia but ceased the trade of arms and ammunition following the assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. After Berlin refused to supply arms, the ongoing exploration of other options with France was a reasonable move. 

However, underneath this apparent consideration of other allies for the supply of arms lies another silver lining. In October 2022, OPEC+ agreed to cut crude oil production, a move which received backlash from the US. The move was followed by expressed disappointment from the Biden-led administration as it was unexpected at that time. The backlash translated into US lawmakers proposing a re-evaluation of the arms trade with Saudi Arabia. It is pertinent to note that RSAF majorly comprises F-15Es which are imported from America. Interestingly, Saudi Arabia is also one of the few countries to own a significant number of F-15E fighters. It is understood that America’s adoption of the proposal would have certainly cost the kingdom the effectiveness of its airforce for the time being.

The reaction from Washington most definitely inspired the Muhammad Bin Salman-led monarchy to contemplate striking a deal with the French company. If the ongoing negotiations snowball into an arms trade, it would certainly solidify the relationship between the two countries. On the other hand, such a deal might translate as anti-American to the Biden-led administration considering the already existing stir regarding the oil production cut. Nonetheless, diversifying its suppliers would allow Saudi Arabia to fear walking on eggshells with Washington much less, and at the same time, strengthen relations with allies to stimulate mutual interests. 

Saudi’s attempts to store more high-end aircraft should also be a concern for Tehran to some extent. The arch-rivals whilst mostly involved in proxy wars against each other, the war in Yemen is an exception. In 2015, Saudi Arabia officially commenced its military operation in Yemen in support of the Yemeni government, while it is argued that Iran also supported the Houthi group with military aid. The Saudi Air Force has contributed to mass destruction in Yemen since the beginning of the military operation. However, in March 2023, a China-brokered deal between the two rivals hinted at a possible truce in Yemen. Nonetheless, since no ceasefire has been called, the uncertainty hovering over the war in Yemen continues and thus Saudi’s military expansion is a concern for the region.    

Thus, the deal may not impress those sitting in Washington and may as well raise eyebrows in Iran, the impact of increasing trade between Riyadh and Paris will be positive and economically viable for both the nations. However, any arms deal that takes place between countries, the subject of which is high-end military equipment perfectly capable of modern warfare, also gauges attention from neighboring countries, allies as well and non-allies. A country with a vast military footprint in the world, when expands its military strength, also becomes a subject of concern in terms of international security. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is a country that does not directly partake in military conflicts outside the Gulf region. As discussed above, its arch-rival is Iran, with whom it continues to struggle to win the title of the “leader of the Islamic World”. Additionally, the concern of a security threat is now dependent on how the situation in the Gulf region transitions shortly. 

The writer is a law student currently enrolled in the LLB (Hons) program at the University of London.