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Ahmad Aziz
Terrorist attacks have become almost a daily affair. The return of terrorism presents a most serious challenge to a nation mudded in multiple crises. The series of killings across the country demonstrates the expanding capacity of militant groups to carry out increasingly intensified operations.
According to data released by the Center for Research and Security Studies, as of the third quarter of 2023, some 445 people lost their lives and 440 suffered injuries from as many as 190 terror attacks and counter-terror operations. KP and Balochistan provinces were the primary centers of violence, accounting for nearly 94% of all fatalities and 89% of attacks (including incidents of terrorism and security forces operations) recorded during this period. The quarterly security report 2023 also recorded an alarming surge in violence by about 57%, with the overall number of fatalities increasing from 284 in Quarter 2 to 445 in Quarter 3, 2023. This includes a staggering 131% uptick recorded in Balochistan and 28% in KP. Punjab witnessed a substantial 67% decrease in violence compared to the last quarter, while Sindh saw a 283% rise in violence though the number of fatalities was very low.
It is not that just civilians lost their lives in the continued terrorist activities but Pakistan’s security forces also lost at least 386 personnel, 36% of all fatalities – including 137 army and 208 police personnel – in the first 9 months of 2023, marking an eight-year high. Largely in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, according to CRSS security report.
Although resurgence in terrorism has risen after the Afghan Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan it is that terrorism has never left Pakistan and is traced back to the post-Soviet-Afghan war and certain contradictory policies of Pakistan state. After the success of the Afghan mujahideen in driving out the Soviets—with U.S. support—Pakistani jihadists fought in the civil war in Afghanistan that followed the collapse of the Soviet-backed regime from 1992 to 1996. (Pakistan supported the Afghan Taliban regime in the 1990s).
In the last 30 years, Pakistan has supported some jihadi groups and tolerated others, while also participating in the United States-led war on terror. The US has sanctioned $33.4 billion to compensate Pakistan during the past 15 years, 44% of which was on account of services that Islamabad rendered to support Washington’s anti-terror operations in Afghanistan. The data has been gathered by the departments of State, Defense, Agriculture, and the US Agency for International Development (USAID). The loss of Pakistan because of the participation is immense which is compared to the actual foreign aid of $18.8 billion to Pakistan, the finance ministry’s statistics showed that Islamabad sustained $123.13 billion in losses on account of the war against terrorism since 9/11.
At the same time, Pakistan is facing violence from Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) which is an alliance of militant networks formed in 2007 to unify opposition against the Pakistani military. TTP’s stated objectives are the expulsion of Islamabad’s influence in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and neighboring Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province in Pakistan, the implementation of a strict interpretation of sharia throughout Pakistan, and the expulsion of Coalition troops from Afghanistan. TTP leaders also publicly say that the group seeks to establish an Islamic caliphate in Pakistan that would require the overthrow of the Pakistani Government.
The Afghan Taliban, also a predominantly Pashtun group, boasts an ethnic and ideological affinity with the TTP. They partnered against the US-led NATO forces in Afghanistan during the two decades of the War on Terror. It is no surprise that once Pakistan began hunting down terrorists in the border regions, most of the TTP top brass relocated to safe havens in Afghanistan.
TTP historically maintained close ties to senior al-Qa‘ida leaders, including al-Qa‘ida’s former head of operations for Pakistan. The TTP has claimed responsibility for many attacks in the latest series of terrorism in Pakistan; a TTP splinter group said it had carried out the January mosque attack. The group seeks to overthrow Pakistan’s government and create an Islamic emirate. For years now it has waged war on the state, describing the conflict as the Ghazwa-e-Hind (Battle of India)—forecasted as a precursor to the end times by the Prophet Mohammed.
One of the immediate explanations for the unprecedented series of terrorism is the unilateral cancellation of a year-old ceasefire on 28 November 2022 by the TTP, which blamed the government for ‘breaching commitments’ and criticized Pakistani security forces for their actions across the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces that stand astride Afghanistan. TTP has retreated into safe havens in Afghanistan. The TTP leadership, including their chief Noor Wali Mehsud, presently enjoys shelter and hospitality in Afghanistan.
It is time that Pakistan’s leaders recognize that violent, radical Islamists are not just disgruntled individuals who can be placated with a negotiated settlement. They hold strong beliefs and a sense of destiny and believe in using violence to shape the world according to their outlook. Before Pakistan’s militants take advantage of ongoing political chaos and economic adversity to orchestrate a full-blown insurgency, leaders in Islamabad must end years of uncertainty about their policy on terrorism. And before they can do that, the country needs a national consensus with the full support of its generals. Unfortunately, there is currently no sign that the country is moving in that direction.
The writer is a student of International Relations at National Defence University Islamabad.
