Is Taiwan the New War Zone?

Eman Nawab

With the election held in Taiwan on the previous weekend, China was relatively non-reactionary, at least for some time. The Democratic Progressive Party’s Lai Ching-Tae came as the victor. He is despised by China and is someone who is labeled as a “separatist”. Just days before the voting Chinese officials warned of “war and decline” to Taiwan in case he won. 

What is the disagreement between the countries? 

Democratic Taiwan is an Island country in the East Asia. It has its government, military, and currency. However, China has territorial claims over the state and has never renounced the use of force when it comes to Taiwan. It considers Taiwan a breakaway province that will eventually rejoin it. The ROC (Republic of China) ruled over China until 1949. Later after a civil war with the Communist Party, it was relocated to what is now Taiwan. Currently, only twelve countries diplomatically recognize Taiwan. 

Since then, the relationship has been shaky with periods of dispute and relative calm over the years that followed. The result of the recent elections would prove to dictate the dynamics of the relationship between the two states. Chinese President Xi Jinping has stated that Taiwan will be reunified with China calling it “the Chinese dream”. He has set 2049 as the target year to achieve this dream. Although the majority people of Taiwan do not support reunification or independence rather want the maintenance of the status quo. 

What are the recent developments in the aftermath of the election?

Last Thursday, Taiwan’s defense ministry claimed that 24 Chinese warplanes and 5 ships were detected around Taiwan, with 11 of them crossing the median line which is the boundary separating Taiwan from China. This was the first prominent show of military force since the elections on Saturday. The ministry releases data on Chinese military presence around Taiwan daily. On this Monday Taiwan shared that six Chinese balloons had entered the island’s air space. The purpose of such ballons is still unclear however the increasing military presence aims at intimidating the state of Taiwan. 

China maintains a military presence around Taiwan almost every day but did not send any significant number immediately after the anti-Chinese government came into power. The largest number of warplanes were sent in September of last year with 103 Chinese aircraft, 40 of which crossed the median line. According to experts, Chinese strategy can not directly be stated as a direct act of war but it is on the borderline of conflict. Taiwan is referred to as a “grey zone.” On the political front, two days after the election Pacific nation Nauru out of the blue announced the shift of diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, leaving just 12 countries that recognize it. 

What does the escalation of conflict mean for the global arena?

The world is already facing two major wars namely the Israel-Palestine War and the Russia-Ukraine War. Both of these conflicts have led to major human loss, and economic issues on the global level. It has led to divided political stances, mass inflation, disruption in imports and exports, and a humanitarian crisis. It has pitted major global powers against each other. The world can not afford another military conflict especially when it comes to China, a major economic power. It would destabilize the entire region and hinder the multiple Road and Belt initiatives (development projects) China has initiated in various countries. The majority of the commodities are manufactured in China, ranging from technological to textile goods, with them being supplied to all parts of the world. This would upset the system. Consequently, inflation rates will skyrocket globally along with various other catastrophic consequences.

Does the US have a role?

The US and China are rivals who share a bitter-sweet relationship. With China’s growing influence in Asia, the US views it as a competitor. Although the US does not share diplomatic relations with Taiwan, they observe a close unofficial relationship. The US has its interests in defending Taiwan. It needs to find allies like India and Japan in Asia which will deter China’s rising influence and one of them is Taiwan. If China was to occupy Taiwan, countries including Japan, and South Korea (American allies) would be in danger. The US often offers its support to Taiwan even military aid to the country. If China invades Taiwan, the US could facilitate the war through military support to protect its interests which would lead to yet another warzone. 

The writer is a student of Peace and Conflict Studies at NDU Islamabad.