Ramifications of the U.S. Presidential Elections for the US-China Relationship

Ali Hamza

The machinations of international politics today are dominated by the dynamics of the relationship between the United States and China. The nature of this relationship defines the trends in global politics and economics. It is undoubtedly clear that the competition between these powers and the nature of this competition will decide the future of international relations. China has a one-party system with little or no change in policy based on internal political dynamics. However, the internal politics of the United States has a significant effect on its relationship with China. As the U.S. hurtles towards the presidential election this year, the consequences of the election for the U.S.-China relationship cannot be undermined.
Washington’s trade policy will be the first and foremost ripple effect for the US-China relationship after the new administration is sworn in.

A new administration or a shift in Congressional power can lead to changes in tariffs, trade agreements, and policies toward intellectual property rights. Trump’s stint in power proved that he favours a more confrontational approach towards China on trade, unlike Biden, who has taken a more measured approach in the past years. Trump’s administration previously imposed tariffs on billions of dollars of Chinese goods, leading to a trade war. A second Trump term might see a continuation or even an escalation of these policies, focusing on reducing the U.S. trade deficit with China and protecting U.S. industries from what he considers unfair Chinese trade practices.

Technology and Cybersecurity are areas of particular interest for any new U.S. administration. Biden has been focused on devising a comprehensive cybersecurity policy for the U.S. and has made visible progress. However, the enormity of the task has overwhelmed his administration, and the challenge still stands. Trump has aggressively dealt with Chinese technology companies, citing national security concerns. This includes actions like banning or seeking to limit the operations of companies like Huawei and TikTok in the U.S. A second Trump term would likely continue to focus on decoupling U.S. and Chinese technology sectors and restricting Chinese access to U.S. technology.

The American stance on the Asia-Pacific region has been unwavering for the past few years, no matter which party ran the president’s office. Biden has avoided any hardline confrontational approach in the region, but his commitment to safeguard American interests has been unquestionable. If Trump gets a second term in office, he will likely further up the ante. On issues like Taiwan and the dispute in the South China Sea, Trump can push China too hard, which will be highly dangerous for a sensitive region.
As a Democrat, Biden has tried to remain committed to supporting victims of human rights abuses worldwide, as this garners a considerable number of American voters. However, his progress in this regard has been anything but satisfactory for the progressive democrat voter.

Biden’s support for Israel has been inconsiderate of all the human rights abuses of Gazans. It will haunt his electoral fortunes in terms of losing the support of American progressive voters in the urban areas. For Trump, human rights issues are not an area of particular interest. Trump’s approach to human rights issues in China, such as the situation in Hong Kong and the treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, has been somewhat inconsistent, often secondary to trade and economic considerations. A second term might continue this trend, with sporadic attention to human rights issues when suitable.

International conflicts like the Ukraine War and the Israel-Gaza conflict will also be high on the agenda for a new American president. Although there are fundamental differences in the approaches of Democrats and Republicans on paper, American policies towards such issues have been somewhat similar, irrespective of who is in office. Trump has severely castigated the Biden administration’s dealing with Russians and the policy in Ukraine. Trump is expected to reduce the U.S. footprint in the conflict gradually. However, Trump’s trajectory is evident that he will be a zealous supporter of Israel in its military campaign against Hamas. This is also expected to keep China and the United States at opposite poles.

Finally, the new American administration’s environmental policies will be necessary for its engagement with China. As Biden has tried cooperating with China on climate change initiatives, Trump’s disregard towards mitigation efforts will further distance China from the U.S. In Trump’s first term, climate change was not a priority, and his administration withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement. In the second term, it is unlikely that climate change would become a significant area of U.S.-China cooperation.

A new American administration will undoubtedly decide the future of the US-China relationship. There will be fundamental differences in Trump’s and Biden’s approaches while dealing with China. Trump’s foreign policy has been characterized by a unilateral and nationalistic approach, focusing on “America First.” This might continue in a second term, with less emphasis on multilateralism and more on bilateral negotiations and deals. Conversely, Biden is expected to resume a more traditional, multilateral approach to foreign policy. This would involve working with allies and international institutions to address issues with China, focusing on rebuilding alliances that have been strained.

The author is working as a Research Officer at CISS AJK.