The Battle for Bakhmut: Shaping the Future of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Amara Malik

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has become a significant global concern, with the conflict escalating since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Despite multiple ceasefire attempts, the conflict persists, with over 8 million Ukrainians fleeing to Europe and Russia, and another 6 million internally displaced. The emigration of Russians who opposed the war or did not want to participate is difficult to measure. Ukraine’s economy has been completely wrecked by the conflict, and large portions of Ukraine’s vital infrastructure have been destroyed or damaged by Russian bombing attacks.

As the second year of the Ukraine War is coming to an end, it is difficult to envision a clear path regarding a negotiated solution, as both Ukraine and Russia continue to think they can accomplish their goals on the battlefield. Moreover, the sustainability of the West’s “unwavering support” or the duration of Russia’s current course of action may be influenced by the outcome of the conflict. Neither side is ready to give up, and due to this continuous deadly conflict, Ukraine and Russia are devastated, as Russia has been further isolated from the West and economic insecurity has been fueled around the world.

Russia’s interests in Ukraine include strong cultural, economic, and political ties, as well as Russia views Ukraine as essential to its identity and global aspirations. Family ties between Russia and Ukraine date back many generations, with Kyiv being often referred to as “the mother of Russian cities.” The Russian diaspora, which includes about eight million ethnic Russians living in Ukraine, is a significant concern for Russia.

Additionally, trade has drastically deteriorated since the breakup with Ukraine, with China overtaking Russia in trade with Ukraine. Russia had wanted to integrate Ukraine into its single market, the Eurasian Economic Union, which now comprises Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, before it invaded Crimea. Energy has also deteriorated, with Moscow relieving on Ukrainian pipelines to provide gas to consumers in Central and Eastern Europe, as in 2023, Russian gas continued to flow into Ukraine, albeit with cuts and danger.

Moreover, political sway has also been impacted by Russia’s desire to maintain its political clout in Ukraine and throughout the former Soviet Union after losing its preferred candidate for Ukrainian president in 2004 to a reformist rival.

The future of the Russia-Ukraine conflict depends on the outcome of the Bakhmut battle. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that the outcome of the conflict around Bakhmut and other significant cities in the country’s east would determine Ukraine’s destiny. Bakhmut is crucial from a strategic standpoint, as it was the site of Russia’s initial strikes on the city in mid-May last year. Western observers speculate that Russia’s attack on Bakhmut was part of a larger strategy to encircle Ukrainian army positions close to Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.

The Wagner PMC (Private Military Company) mercenaries of Yevgeny Prigozhin have been crucial to Russia’s attempt to capture the city. Prigozhin’s future and that of the PMCs might depend on Bakhmut’s success or failure. However, even if Russia manages to capture Bakhmut, the victory could only bring little benefits at enormous expense. Russia could have been better off not conducting an operation after losing so many soldiers and pieces of equipment trying to conquer a city with little strategic importance.

For Russia, Bakhmut presents the potential to declare victory and “make up” for last year’s military defeats. In December, Ukrainian and Western analysts noted that Bakhmut had turned into Moscow’s primary objective and that Moscow had committed a sizable amount of soldiers to the effort. However, Western analysts do not believe that Russia would be able to capitalize on its victory.

While, for Ukraine, Bakhmut has come to represent a valiant struggle in Ukraine, as severe losses in manpower and equipment have been inflicted on Russian forces due to protracted fighting around the city. NATO estimates that for every Ukrainian victim in Bakhmut, five Russians die. The Ukrainians are using the battle as a defensive battle, essentially a set-piece battle, to inflict the greatest number of casualties on the Russian attackers at the lowest cost to themselves before launching one or more counterpunches against Russia at a time and location of Ukraine’s choosing. The outcome of what occurs next and how the effects spread over the remainder of the battlefield will determine how the combat in Bakhmut will be seen.

Consequently, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused a global realignment and adversely affected economies, particularly those distant from the front lines. The conflict has led to a rise in food and economic issues, with major exports from Ukraine and Russia being primarily to Africa and the Middle East. A compromise was mediated by Turkey and the UN last summer, but Russia continues to impede shipments of wheat, barley, maize, and cooking oil. Additionally, Russia is a significant producer of petroleum and fertilizer, raising food and petrol prices and generating shortages in countries like Chad, Tunisia, and Sri Lanka.

Moreover, geopolitical tensions have arisen due to a 21st-century war in Europe led by a nuclear power, roiling NATO, the EU, and the UN, pushing nations to choose sides and resulting in rising tensions and diplomatic reorientations. Turkey, despite being a member of NATO, has expanded commerce with Russia since the beginning of the conflict and raised concerns about admitting Sweden and Finland to the alliance.

Humanitarian crises have emerged as thousands of civilians in Ukraine have been murdered, injured, or forced to flee their homes. The situation remains terrible, and the international community has provided assistance to help ease the crisis. Energy security has also been impacted by the conflict, with both sides engaging in cyberattacks, raising concerns about vulnerable key infrastructure and potential intensification of the battle.

International law has been called into question due to Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, which has called into question the integrity of national boundaries and the application of the law. The international community has denounced Russia’s conduct and responded with sanctions, but the dispute has highlighted the difficulties of upholding international law in a complicated and unstable geopolitical climate.

In conclusion, the ongoing confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has caused widespread fear worldwide. The conflict has destroyed Ukraine’s infrastructure, and economy, and isolated Russia from the West. The outcome of engagements like the one in Bakhmut will determine Ukraine’s fate, and speculation in the West concerns Bakhmut’s strategic significance in the larger battle. It remains unclear how the crisis will be ended and the long-term effects on Russia, Ukraine, and the world as the situation develops.

Researcher, PolicyEast.