Climate Change as a Contributing Factor to Terrorism in Pakistan

Muhammad Ismail Bhatti

The Global Climate Risk Index named Pakistan the eighth most vulnerable country to climate change despite being responsible for less than 1% of global emissions. Recent years have seen a significant increase in climate-related disasters in the country, putting the already fragile nation at an even increased risk. While there is little data-driven evidence of the direct link between climate change and terrorism, researchers are still exploring the area. The link between the two phenomena, either direct or indirect, can never be denied.

Pakistan faces unprecedented climate-related climate-related issues, and floods have become a norm for many years. About 37.4% of Pakistan’s population depends on agriculture, a susceptible sector to climate change. Now, with the impacts of climate change, agriculture is at risk of being very severely affected. Changes in rainfall patterns, floods, and temperature variations can significantly harm the crop-yielding capacities of Pakistani farmers.

Until now, terrorism is generally considered the biggest threat to Pakistan, and the nation has lost a lot to terrorism. From the economy to politics, everything has been badly affected by terrorism. Although the country has made gains and improved peace and security situation in the past few years, the overall security situation remains fragile, with terrorist groups sitting at the doorsteps along the border with Afghanistan. Over the years, terrorist organizations have exploited the socio-economic fabric of Pakistan in order to advance their propaganda and to recruit people from all over Pakistan. Lack of education combined with poverty is the perfect recipe for radicalization in any human society, and Pakistan has a lot of it.

Climate Change exacerbates the factors that directly contribute to radicalization and terrorism. Water scarcity, internal displacement, food insecurity, and floods can devastate social and political stability. Thus, it will pose a potential threat to create breeding grounds for terrorist organizations.

Water scarcity is a topic that has been discussed previously in Pakistan. The UN report Global Water Security Assessment 2023 has placed Pakistan in the critically water insecure category. About 80% of Pakistan’s population faces water shortage. For decades, provinces have struggled over water resources, and the country has faced political deadlocks on constructing new dams. The water table in Pakistan is continuously declining, and most areas in Pakistan currently have no drinkable water. A PIDE report suggests that until 2025, Pakistan will face severe water scarcity. This is a significant threat to Pakistan and will provide a chance for terrorist organizations to advance their propaganda and recruitment in communities having a shortage of water.

Internal Displacement and Rural-Urban Migration can be regarded as one of the most significant potential factors for terrorism. By 2022, 33 million people have been internally displaced by the intense floods the country is facing. Internal displacement caused by natural disasters, extreme heatwaves, flooding, drought, and resource scarcity will be devastating for the political, social, and economic situation in Pakistan. It will exacerbate the preexisting communal rift in the country. Pakistan is a multicultural nation with many different ethnicities residing in different areas. Although, for the most part, these different ethnicities have managed to live in peace and harmony, Pakistan has a long history of ethnic conflicts, and different political actors have used ethnic politics for their political gains.

Food Insecurity is again a serious threat posed by climate change that can contribute to terrorism. According to WFP, 36.9% of Pakistan’s population faces food insecurity. Temperature rises, changing rain patterns, floods, and extreme heatwaves are causing sharp decreases in agricultural productivity in Pakistan. This will affect the country in two ways. First, it will cause the more significant part of Pakistan’s population that is associated with agriculture to lose their means of earning, and second, it will create a food shortage among specific communities in Pakistan, leaving them vulnerable to radicalization.

Floods have become the new normal in Pakistan for the last few years. Pakistan has faced devastating floods due to rising temperatures, glacial melting, and rising sea levels. Floods cause internal displacement and humanitarian emergencies in the country. People lose their properties, homes, and means of earning, thus becoming prone to radicalization. Terrorist organizations also try to exploit such situations by delivering humanitarian aid to legitimize their claims and motives, advance their propaganda, and gain public support for recruitment purposes.

Hence, terrorism in Pakistan can be further exacerbated by climate change and can have devastating political, economic, social, and cultural implications for the country. In order to deal with it, the government needs to take timely and efficient policy measures. In 2022, the then climate change minister, Senator Sherry Rehman, proposed designating climate change as a matter of national security. However, there is much debate on the international level on the securitization of climate change, with critics stating that it is primarily a developmental rather than a security issue. However, securitizing climate change in Pakistan would give much-needed importance and attention to the issue. In 2018, the government tried to develop solutions with the Billion Tree Tsunami as the flagship project, which the World Economic Forum also appreciated. The government also came up with some other measures, such as banning the use of plastic bags in the country. However, it could not successfully implement the measures and faced public backlash due to a lack of awareness and a poor economic situation.

There is a need for an inter-institutional approach, where all the relevant government institutions and other stakeholders, such as the business community, take mutually acceptable and viable steps and drive a slow but organized and stable policy against climate change. There is also a need to take on board the security institutions to make sure that the impacts of climate change on exacerbating terrorism in the country can be minimized. There is a severe need for a National Plan to create adaptability against climate change and to provide a comprehensive policy to deal with the exacerbation of terrorism due to climate change in Pakistan.

The writer is an M.Phil. International Relations student at Bahauddin Zakariya University.