AUKUS At One Year

AUKUS demonstrates its determination to use the collective strength of its members to resist China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States launched AUKUS to enhance the trilateral security alliance, in September 2021. On the first anniversary of AUKUS in Sep 2022, the White House issued a joint statement stating,

“We reaffirm our commitment to that critical endeavor and peace and security in the Indo-Pacific. Through AUKUS, we have also made significant strides in our trilateral cooperation on advanced capability initiatives: hypersonic and counter-hypersonic, electronic warfare capabilities, cyber, artificial intelligence and autonomy, quantum technologies, and additional undersea capabilities.”

AUKUS, continue to encourage more information and technology sharing, deeper industrial base and supply chain integration, and increased defense innovation companies to enable further advancement on these projects. Moreover, it will look for chances to collaborate with allies and close partners. China’s influence in the South China Sea and its ability to advance in the Indo-Pacific area were intended to be strategically constrained by the agreement. The alliance was accused of having a “Cold War mentality and ideological predisposition” by China’s embassy in Washington, which also termed the action “very irresponsible,” “seriously affects regional peace and security,” and “intensifies the arms race” (BBC News, 16th September 2021). Some countries, that supported this imitative, such as Japan welcomed the launch of AUKUS in the sense of strengthening engagement in the Indo-Pacific region.  Also, Australia made an important diplomatic step with AUKUS. The agreement demonstrates Canberra’s determination to forge closer relations with longtime allies rather than take an insular stance in the face of Chinese aggression.

According to Washington, the agreement enables the US to keep a presence in the Indo-Pacific. Biden wants to bolster coalitions and use military and economic influence in the area. Given that the Indo-Pacific region has recently become a political flashpoint. This agreement reminds us about the Taiwan Strait, what kind of response Taiwan has given? And what would it have apprehension? In Taiwan, this security agreement was also welcomed.

Liu Shih-fang, the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) secretary general noted that AUKUS is a clear-cut answer to Beijing’s “wolf-warrior diplomacy.” So, Taiwan’s willingness to support this security agreement is giving some security assurances from the parties of AUKUS or not?

The capabilities that the trilateral security agreement brings with it will certainly be seen negatively in Beijing in addition to expanding its support network. A case in point is the conflicting interests and rising military presence in the waters surrounding Taiwan.

Most of the discussion surrounding AUKUS is confined to the realm of the rhetoric of the treaty as concrete details will not emerge until 2023. Due to the significantly increased financial burden associated with this agreement, Australia will face some difficulties. In addition to purchasing a different type of attack submarine, Australia will also need to significantly alter its maintenance infrastructure to obtain nuclear-powered submarines.

AUKUS also projects the apprehension that it is supposedly preventing Beijing from attacking Taiwan in full. The Indo-Pacific region, meanwhile, is significant economically since it is home to developing nations like India, Indonesia, and the ASEAN countries. Due to the location of several important US allies, including Japan, Korea, New Zealand, and Australia, the Indo-Pacific has historically been dominated by the US.

That balance is more likely to shift in Beijing’s favor if China continues to quickly expand economically and maybe geographically. The new submarines will be nuclear-powered (SSNs), which reduces the chance of discovery because they can stay below far longer than current types. Additionally, they can run more silently than non-nuclear power plants and store enough fuel for thirty years. The Australian Department of Defence has set the operational use date as 2036–2038 of AUKUS.  

AUKUS gives the signatories a wide range of opportunities despite the numerous hazards it entails. According to the Joint Leaders Statement, the relationship will promote information and technology sharing as well as cooperation on a range of defense capabilities. An outlet for manufacturing and construction for Australian workers should be made available by increased defense spending and the expansion of military installations. Longer term, AUKUS can open doors for more industrial and academic ties as well as increase international trade among its member nations.

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) is opening an office in Washington to strengthen the relationship between Australia and the US. They intend to do this through several technological transfers involving nuclear-powered submarines, quantum technologies, artificial intelligence, and cyber capabilities. The final item garnered the majority of media attention, and as a direct result, an agreement between Australia and France for the building of 12 conventionally driven diesel-electric submarines was canceled. The ensuing diplomatic crisis between Paris, on the one side, and Canberra and Washington, on the other, obscured the bigger strategic perspective and the European dimension within it. In order to “address both the current strategic situation in the (Indo-Pacific) area and how it may evolve,” according to President Joe Biden, the agreement was made. The agreement will be distinguished from the intelligence-sharing partnership known as the Five Eyes, which also includes Canada and New Zealand, by its emphasis on military capability. An intelligence coalition made up of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States is known as the Five Eyes (FVEY). The multinational UKUSA Agreement, a contract for cooperative signals intelligence, has these nations as signatories.

Asia Maqsood is a lecturer of  International Relations at the University of Management and Technology, Sialkot Campus.